0z Model Guidance 12/9

[tombo82685]

Its out to 72 in the MW thread

http://www.americanw...i/page__st__640

See the bottom of that page

here is the ukmet through 72, it looks like the gfs

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2010120900&REGION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=850&F2=none&C2=tmpc&VEC=none&F1=p06i&C1=pmsl

[atownwxwatcher]

Its out to 72 in the MW thread

http://www.americanw...i/page__st__640

See the bottom of that page

That does not look anything like the ECM looked ...and that is only to 72 hours ... looks similar to the GFS

[tombo82685]

im curious to see extended ukmet. I wonder if it will go to the gfs thinking of popping the coastal. That looks like what the nam had and dgex, a low going towards ohio then another low forming on that front

[ag3]

GFS still drops some snow in the beginning from NYC west and Philly west. About 1"-3".

[jrodd321]

here is the ukmet through 72, it looks like the gfs

http://weather.uwyo....F1=p06i&C1=pmsl

That's the Ukmet? That everyone just said BOWED DOWN to the Euro and whatnot? I agree it looks like the GFS.

[Kaner587]

That does not look anything like the ECM looked ...and that is only to 72 hours ... looks similar to the GFS

Ya yoda I'm not sure what you're looking at? The GFS had the primary low in that same relative position as well...we obv need to see 500 setup as well otherwise that means nothing. As far as the GFS goes it's seems to like the secondary idea I guess well see what transpires. For all we know the NAM would have also produced a secondary so this may be lending credence to the idea of a weaker non-cutting primary with secondary transfer thats most likely not in a great position for us but this is much better than a cutter.

[LVblizzard]

Personally I think the 0z GFS looks more like a glorified clipper than anything since 850 temps don't really surge like previous runs.

[tombo82685]

Personally I think the 0z GFS looks more like a glorified clipper than anything since 850 temps don't really surge like previous runs.

yea i know, totally agree. The ukmet, albeit a little stronger at hr 72 has the same kind of 850 setup.

[tombo82685]

im not sure why people are all gloomy. This is a heck of a lot better than the euro. The euro at those time frames had 850s in maine, this has it north and west of the cities. If we can get an earlier coastal transfer, we can get something.

[benfica356]

yep tombo

[Kaner587]

im not sure why people are all gloomy. This is a heck of a lot better than the euro. The euro at those time frames had 850s in maine, this has it north and west of the cities. If we can get an earlier coastal transfer, we can get something.

There is almost zero warm push on this run...850's are very close to 0 even when they go above and as I said before I don't think we see much but if we can get an inch or 2 on the front end followed by sleet/rain then back to an inch or 2 I would consider it a gigantic victory

[Kaner587]

And also sub 510 heights still being advertised post storm with temps in the 20's with the potential of a fresh (albeit light) snowpack...would be nice if we start seeing the EURO/GGEM come around to this coastal transfer, its pretty much our only shot.

[jrodd321]

Yea honestly this run is almost identical to 18z, showing that 18z wasn't just an outlier run. Maybe the Euro will come around tonight?

[tombo82685]

There is almost zero warm push on this run...850's are very close to 0 even when they go above and as I said before I don't think we see much but if we can get an inch or 2 on the front end followed by sleet/rain then back to an inch or 2 I would consider it a gigantic victory

the front part is ice, big time bl issues.

[tombo82685]

without a STJ this winter, there is really no point of having a weather board. Its going to be miserable.

your not going to like post 192 on the gfs, cutters with transfers over us....way out in time though

[Chris L]

your not going to like post 192 on the gfs, cutters with transfers over us....way out in time though

Ji does this pretty often.

But seriously the block is absolutely stunning on the ECMWF and GFS in the later panels.

[Thunder Road]

without a STJ this winter, there is really no point of having a weather board. Its going to be miserable.

kicked out of the DC thread eh?

[Chris L]

without a STJ this winter, there is really no point of having a weather board. Its going to be miserable.

I think you might have forgotten one storm that was largely dominated by the Polar Jet....

[tombo82685]

Ji does this pretty often.

But seriously the block is absolutely stunning on the ECMWF and GFS in the later panels.

which is shocking, unless its just low level cold. The 850 erode quick and the storm goes right into than transfers over us...way out in time, but the goa low is gone, ridge into canada, but looks like a pos nao

[Ji]

kicked out of the DC thread eh?

DC thread is dead. People there canceled winter along time ago

[earthlight]

The GFS has 0.25+" liquid QPF at KMMU (Northeast NJ) through 84 hours, where the column is still supportive of snow. It also flips back to snow once the front passes. So I would take this in a heartbeat considering it's December 8th. Just saying. Here's the 84 hr sounding.

[Ji]

Major DC clipper snowstorm Christmas Eve/Day

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_372.shtml

[tombo82685]

Major DC clipper snowstorm Christmas Eve/Day

http://www.nco.ncep....0/fp0_372.shtml

lol....thats one thing that we havent seen at all this year really. I thought la nina was dominated by the northern stream, where are the clippers at?

[SnoSki14]

Maybe we'll get lucky and get a nice Christmas snowstorm. Meanwhile, I'm starting to think that instead of a big storm cutting through the lakes, that we're going to be dealing with more of a frontal passage. In this case, an arctic frontal passage with a low that develops along the front. The gfs hasn't really budged with the cold air after the storm, very cold period for Monday through Wednesday. I'm not sure why the gfs wants to warm things up so quickly with all of that blocking going on, but anything beyond Day 5 is a total crap shoot.

[Ji]

lol....thats one thing that we havent seen at all this year really. I thought la nina was dominated by the northern stream, where are the clippers at?

the clippers are in the southeast this year my friend. Is it possible to have a LA Nina with zero STJ the entire winter?

[Chris L]

lol....thats one thing that we havent seen at all this year really. I thought la nina was dominated by the northern stream, where are the clippers at?

I just would like to see the polar jet get going southward more...

[NJwinter23]

The GFS has 0.25+" liquid QPF at KMMU (Northeast NJ) through 84 hours, where the column is still supportive of snow. It also flips back to snow once the front passes. So I would take this in a heartbeat considering it's December 8th. Just saying. Here's the 84 hr sounding.

I see rain to start on bufkit for kMMU, 0.56" of it..followed by a change to sleet and snow for the remaining 0.14"...snow showers afterwards

[earthlight]

GFS Ensembles have shifted way north with the initial surface low on the spaghetti plots through 78 hrs

[earthlight]

I see rain to start on bufkit for kMMU, 0.56" of it..followed by a change to sleet and snow for the remaining 0.14"...snow showers afterwards

Don't have BUFKIT...im guessing there's a warm layer directly near the surface? It doesn't really seem that way on the 84 hr sounding.

[Analog96]

Don't have BUFKIT...im guessing there's a warm layer directly near the surface? It doesn't really seem that way on the 84 hr sounding.

I'm waiting for the meteostar plots... last run looked like 0.11" of snow/sleet mix at EWR before a changeover. Showed temps 33-34 at the sfc, which would still be supportive of snow.