Huffwx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Well, the NAM is cold enough aloft that some it 'COULD" be a little more than just 10 minutes of sleet back my way (dry air aloft sleet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 At 84 hrs chicago is close to a inch liquid all in the forum of snow....what a run for them.... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p60_084m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 if that pv doesnt drop down, this thing is headed right towards the coast. The whole h5 setup was a lot flatter, then the pv came in and caught it. O well its nam past the 60hrs, time for the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 if that pv doesnt drop down, this thing is headed right towards the coast. The whole h5 setup was a lot flatter, then the pv came in and caught it. O well its nam past the 60hrs, time for the gfs It's really not that bad. Looks like a secondary would form around NC or so if it was extrap. Usually the NAM is a few steps behind when it finally gets in range of a storm that has been on the gfs and other models for a while. Look for 12Z NAM to have the most differences if there is any in the models tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 if that pv doesnt drop down, this thing is headed right towards the coast. The whole h5 setup was a lot flatter, then the pv came in and caught it. O well its nam past the 60hrs, time for the gfs There's still even some room for the secondary on that setup..we will never know though. GFS should certainly be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It's really not that bad. Looks like a secondary would form around NC or so if it was extrap. Usually the NAM is a few steps behind when it finally gets in range of a storm that has been on the gfs and other models for a while. Look for 12Z NAM to have the most differences if there is any in the models tonight. yea its a very weak low. I was just saying the whole h5 setup, if you compare hr 78 tonight to hr 84 at 18z is a lot better. It would of been scary to see what the 18z nam would of showed. So now its all coming down to the pv, that low was very weak in the south, pv got involved and changed the ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 looks like early in the game the nam would probably side more with the euro than the gfs/ukie...nam/euro/ggem...pretty tough to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 hey all as we've reminded numerous times if you arent discussing nyc/phl specifics and have something of value to post please start or contribute to a thread in the main forum. i see plenty of people on the list of posters not from nyc/phl.. many thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 One thing's for sure, it's way further north than the 18z GFS with the entire feature which allows for earlier phasing with the Polar Vortex. The secondary may still develop, but it has no chance of being as far east as the 18z GFS. One has to start to wonder if the 18z GFS solution was out to lunch a bit with that shortwave over the OH Valley and then into our region de-amplifying the height field. I haven't seen that on any other model other than the DGEX and Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 One thing's for sure, it's way further north than the 18z GFS with the entire feature which allows for earlier phasing with the Polar Vortex. The secondary may still develop, but it has no chance of being as far east as the 18z GFS. One has to start to wonder if the 18z GFS solution was out to lunch a bit with that shortwave over the OH Valley and then into our region de-amplifying the height field. I haven't seen that on any other model other than the DGEX and Ukie. NAM also brought the PV too far to the south, even earlier than the 18z NAM did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The NAM actually doesn't look to far off from the DGEX, for the little that it's worth, which eventually develops a low off the coast. Lots of questions still left to be answered at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 curious, are they done running the 21z eta? Ewall site shows it hasnt updated since october 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 ncep out to 12, ewall hasnt started... anyone else having this problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 No major changes on the GFS through 36 hours, maybe a hair stronger with the clipper shortwave over the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 No major changes on the GFS through 36 hours, maybe a hair stronger with the clipper shortwave over the Great Lakes. this is just prob some nit picking, but the gfs looks like the pac ridge is flatter like the nam, also looks like the center of pv is a little further north atleast the hgts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Compared to the 12z run it is way slower with the shortwave entering the Pacific northwest, which could obviously be one of the reasons why the solutions have changed since that time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 ncep out to 12, ewall hasnt started... anyone else having this problem? Ewall usually doesn't start till 11, when they update rapidly out to 60 or so. It's kind of weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The height field over the northeast is once again more de-amplified than it's 18z run..very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The height field over the northeast is once again more de-amplified than it's 18z run..very interesting. vort is spliting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It's definitely not digging as much into the Central US as the 18z run did, we will have to see what effect this has on the solution down the road--probably not a great one given the PV positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The entire thing is way further northeast at H5 this run..it remains to be seen if a secondary can develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Weak surface low trying to develop off the coast at 81 hours, what started as snow in the NYC area has since most likely changed to liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 still positive at 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Its pretty close to checkmate gentleman... UKMET decided to go into the EURO camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Very odd solution at 90 hours, GFS seems to be caught in between solutions here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 There's definitely a decent bit of frozen precipitation west of NYC and PHL in the suburbs this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Its pretty close to checkmate gentleman... UKMET decided to go into the EURO camp But that model doesn't come out till around or after midnight. Unless this has changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Its pretty close to checkmate gentleman... UKMET decided to go into the EURO camp it was only a matter of time...euro is deadly in this time range and is very rarely way off base. in most cases it's the gfs...i guess it's the same old deal even after the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 But that model doesn't come out till around or after midnight. Unless this has changed? Its out to 72 in the MW thread See the bottom of that page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Its out to 72 in the MW thread The pattern doesn't support the east coast getting buried that's the bottom line. Until the Pacific fixes itself this will be a northern stream pattern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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