benfica356 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 lets see if the nam can follow the gfs in phasing the pv less </IMG> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Any word on the 21z SREF's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 </IMG> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 87hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The SREF mean at 500mb doesn't look too bad to my eyes. The 500mb jet streak is still not at the trough base and the trough is already progressing through the MS valley. The GFS had a similar idea at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The SREF mean at 500mb doesn't look too bad to my eyes. The 500mb jet streak is still not at the trough base and the trough is already progressing through the MS valley. The GFS had a similar idea at 18z. can you help me visualize that? maybe put some graphics on the 500mb chart? if you have time, I am just trying to understand what you mean. Gracias, R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 </IMG> 87hrs The SREF mean at 500mb doesn't look too bad to my eyes. The 500mb jet streak is still not at the trough base and the trough is already progressing through the MS valley. The GFS had a similar idea at 18z. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 can you help me visualize that? maybe put some graphics on the 500mb chart? if you have time, I am just trying to understand what you mean. Gracias, R As soon as I get home I'll help with the visualization, I'm posting this from my iphone. But in a general sense, the model runs yesterday already had the trough negatively tilted and phased at that longitude. The UK, GFS and to an extent NAM and DGEX have been trending towards a de-amplified height field over the Northeast, and the trough over the Southeast taking longer to go negatively tilted as a result. This delays the phase and helps slide the entire thing eastward. We will have to see if this is truly a trend, or if it was just a hiccup, which it very well might be considering the stubbornly far west ECMWF and GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 im not sure what to make of this run yet, the hgts are higher in the center part of the country, but the 50/50 low is further south flattening out the rising hgts over the east coast, the pacific ridge is also flatter so far through 36.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 im not sure what to make of this run yet, the hgts are higher in the center part of the country, but the 50/50 low is further south flattening out the rising hgts over the east coast, the pacific ridge is also flatter so far through 36.... The pacific ridge def is flatter through 42 when you compare it to the 18z 48 hr h5 -- which is probably due to the 50-50 low being a bit further SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The opening act of tonight's model show, the 21z RSM, looks like a secondary low would form somewhere in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Pacific ridge def flatter at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Pacific ridge def flatter at 54 deff. agree yoda, the hgts are higher, but their is no amplification at the bottom of that rof yet, its pretty flat so far compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 deff. agree yoda, the hgts are higher, but their is no amplification at the bottom of that rof yet, its pretty flat so far compared to 18z pv is further south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 def not digging as much as 18z was on h5 at 60 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 watch that pv at hr 66, the hgts on that are further south, but still no real digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The trend for the flatter H5 over the Central US seems to have carried over to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 By this time on the 18z the sw was rounding the trough already, still digging on the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The trend for the flatter H5 over the Central US seems to have carried over to the NAM Was this good or bad? I remember we discussed this earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Was this good or bad? I remember we discussed this earlier... good, the more ridging the more its going to dig, you want a flatter look, take longer to phase, if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Not exactly sure whats going on just off the NC/VA coast at 66... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 the "50-50" low is in a better (but nowhere near ideal) position compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 NAM went from good to bad at H5 from 70-81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Looks like the s/w really starts to dig at 72 in NW MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Not exactly sure whats going on just off the NC/VA coast at 66... HPC mentioned it in there afternoon model diagnostic disco, NAM and UKMET are the most bullish on this feature, which will end up determining the baroclinic zone along the EC... ...WAVE SHARPENING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE DAY 3...PREFERENCE: COMPROMISE BETWEEN ECMWF AND UKMET THE NAM AND GEM GLOBAL ARE SUPPRESSED COMPARED WITH THE OTHER RECENT GUIDANCE...WITH THE UKMET THE MOST DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS CRITICAL TO WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENDS UP AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST SYSTEM. WITH THE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS...WILL RECOMMEND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES...THE ECMWF AND UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 00NAM looks to take the Low near Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 There is weak high pressure in Quebec now where before we were blinded by several lows littered throughout Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 00NAM looks to take the Low near Chicago The same nam that gave dc 3-5 inches form a clipper last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 NAM went from good to bad at H5 from 70-81 yeah pv about to phase too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The energy consolidated a lot earlier on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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