Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

October General Obs/Disc


Ellinwood

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 784
  • Created
  • Last Reply

That front mid-week next week is looking pretty legit. GFS pushes temps noticeably cooler than Euro but will probably will have to blend the two to compensate for the over-amplification of the GFS and warm bias of the Euro. Solid area of vorticity with plenty of dynamics.

Still just out there in the fantasy range (Day 9... Wed), but even the 00z Euro brings the 0c 850 line down through the entire region. Raw ensemble numbers suggesting upper 30s are possible in DC, with lower 40s most likely. Baltimore/Dulles go 3-5 degrees cooler.

Teleconnections are on the weaker side as far as NAO/AO, with a PNA transition from negative to slightly positive being the only major indicator of developing an eastern trough as MJO swings over into phase 1.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't like the look of this rain. I left my umbrella in my car at greenbelt and I have to head downtown after work. Gonna have to stick my cast in my backpack to keep it dry.

you fail the class before arriving.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GFS still has the big cold front next week. People with dates of ~21 Oct in the first freeze contest should be watching this. 240hr GFS does have the 2m 32F line south of I-95. Next week would be pretty chilly per the GFS...highs sub 60F for most of us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bethesda, I have never encountered someone as worried about leaves and their status on trees as you seem to be this fall.

How do you think we landscapers make money this time of yr? Shouldn't be a surprise :P

I have my eye on things 24/7, got my Shindaiwa blowers all gassed up ready for action once this rain passes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Canada is getting nice and cold(er) on the 6z GFS. Looks like fall finally gets a grip on Baltimore weather for good. Consistent lows and shortwaves moving over us or just to our north for an entire run. Keeps my arch nemesis (the SE ridge) from getting warm flow up here at all. Negative height anomalies dominating the Euro run from the overnight in the northeast particularly just to our NE. Just gets me excited overall all of these seasonal changes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...