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October General Obs/Disc


Ellinwood

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Very nice shot, Kenny! Are you sure it's not infected with "hotglove" malware? tongue.gif

Certified HotGlove Free!

I tweeted the guy who owns the hotglove website earlier and told him his website was causing problems on unrelated websites and that he should fix it ASAP.

His response was something along the lines of "believe me...I'm trying"

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When do we start talking about that mess that shows up on the GFS/Euro mid next week?

Definitely something to keep tabs on, especially with the potential for another widespread 2-4"+ (via the last 2 GFS runs) or a slightly more conservative 1-2" (00z Euro) event starting mid-week. Could stay above normal with temps due to the tropical moisture (warm lows, cool highs). Consensus keeps this system rather sloppy, but the 06z GFS (FWIW) has a more organized sub-tropical/(tropical?) system that's further east than the other recent model runs.

Still a good amount of uncertainty in track/timing between the different models, but a general wet period has been a consistent theme for mid-late week next week.

EDIT: to fix 6z GFS "tropical" claim as it still appears more sub-tropical.

we don't, we hope it just disappears.

I really want it to disappear :P

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Yeah, 12z GFS looks like it takes Rina (if that turns out to be Rina) and then turns it extratropical and eventually seems to drag a front through late next week. Although the 12z backed off on the precip a bit (but who cares at Day 6-8?), the pattern would certainly be ripe for more mod-heavy rains.

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yeah i was looking at that blob of moisture last night. the way the high exits would lead me to think it might come up here eventually. even if it's nice now it's hard to argue we're not still in a rainy pattern.

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yeah i was looking at that blob of moisture last night. the way the high exits would lead me to think it might come up here eventually. even if it's nice now it's hard to argue we're not still in a rainy pattern.

agree. Most models seem to be tracking this near us...

Finally starting to peek at models again now to see what temps are going to be like

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