wxmeddler Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 It looks like the OH valley system is progged stronger & in a similar place to the November event last fall where there was little guidance support for heavy storms, let alone an overnight Derecho w/ tornadoes. I know it's a different setup this time with the secondary low feeding low level NE-erly flow rather than SSE but 850's @ 15C packed tightly with a front out west before a wind-direction shift even pre-frontal just seems like it might be worth watching. Or more likely my tired brain is just mis-analyzing. Very nice memory BB, I think your referring to this event right? http://www.spc.noaa....1116/index.html I guess there is a slim chance that something like this could happen on the edge of the dry slot when it punches in. The problem that we have here that we didn't have with the comparison is the amount of warm air present. Due to the system down in the gulf were going to have easterly winds tomorrow bringing moist but cool marine air off the Atlantic. You could almost say that the front that goes through tomorrow evening is more like an occluded front of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Ceilings are lowering We've already had 4 inches rain this month and 21 inches in September - we dont need no more rain Saving grace is this area of rain is moving like a jetliner - at the rate it is moving NEly - dry slot should hit us by mid to late morning Watch it back build down in VA tomorrow with the huge amount of difluence in the upper levels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Sun and clouds here, 54* about a third of an inch of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Very nice memory BB, I think your referring to this event right? http://www.spc.noaa....1116/index.html I guess there is a slim chance that something like this could happen on the edge of the dry slot when it punches in. The problem that we have here that we didn't have with the comparison is the amount of warm air present. Due to the system down in the gulf were going to have easterly winds tomorrow bringing moist but cool marine air off the Atlantic. You could almost say that the front that goes through tomorrow evening is more like an occluded front of sorts. Thanks for the knowledge, appriciate it. Looks like SPC wants to go that way today? And yeah I'll never forget that storm, one of the stronger wind gusts I've seen aside from 7/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 breezy this morning, peak gust of 32mph from the E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Looks like the big cold front is still on track for next Wednesday/Thursday. Still chance of first frost this weekend (Sunday morning probably) for folks in colder spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Looks like the big cold front is still on track for next Wednesday/Thursday. Still chance of first frost this weekend (Sunday morning probably) for folks in colder spots. Some cutoff low will set up shop and block it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 Some cutoff low will set up shop and block it. Not necessarily in our region. The Euro Op's been trying to develop a cut-off upper-low over the southern Plains, which would allow the Southeast and maybe the Mid-Atlantic to be significantly warmer than what the GFS shows. The cold front could still make it though our region (or at least most of it). Euro's been kind of an outlier over the last couple of days, though. EDIT: Noting that the GFS and Euro ensembles show a flip from -AO to +AO during the last few days of October, which is also seen on the Euro Op. while the GFS Op. only pushes the AO to neutral (slightly neg). The AO is one of the more amplified signals in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Not necessarily in our region. The Euro Op's been trying to develop a cut-off upper-low over the southern Plains, which would allow the Southeast and maybe the Mid-Atlantic to be significantly warmer than what the GFS shows. The cold front could still make it though our region (or at least most of it). Euro's been kind of an outlier over the last couple of days, though. EDIT: Noting that the GFS and Euro ensembles show a flip from -AO to +AO during the last few days of October, which is also seen on the Euro Op. while the GFS Op. only pushes the AO to neutral (slightly neg). The AO is one of the more amplified signals in the medium range. I've been noticing that the cold snaps have been warming as we get closer to the forecasted period...not "real" encouraging for the coming season, but I'll hang on to the "it's early" mentality for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 I've been noticing that the cold snaps have been warming as we get closer to the forecasted period...not "real" encouraging for the coming season, but I'll hang on to the "it's early" mentality for now It's been warming because lows have cut-off further west and have lingered longer than what the models have forecasted (the models are generally more progressive, which allowed the cold air behind the lows to filter into the region). That is a common problem during the transition months. Once we stop seeing these lows cutting off and the flow become more progressive heading into the winter months (as is the usual when changing from fall to winter), the cold should be able to work its way into the region. (that's how I see things evolving, anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Indexes are pointing towards a +pna / -ao / and slightly -nao for the last week of the month. gfs showing pretty chilly stuff next week. We're getting ready to enter November now and I'm anxious to see how the overall pattern shakes out for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Pretty intense jet above us today.. Wow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 Indexes are pointing towards a +pna / -ao / and slightly -nao for the last week of the month. gfs showing pretty chilly stuff next week. We're getting ready to enter November now and I'm anxious to see how the overall pattern shakes out for the month. The +PNA and -NAO are weak at best, and most would consider "near neutral" to be a more accurate assessment. AO dips solidly into negative over the next 5 days or so and then lifts back to neutral/slightly positive by the end of the month. EPO is neutral/slightly negative in the forecast, and MJO is forecast to quickly de-amplify while in phase 2. The strongest signals, the phase 2 MJO and short-lived -AO, should be the main drivers in the last week of October. This would imply below normal temps for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Departures for the month-to-date so far for the big 3 airports: DCA: +0.6F, +0.29" IAD: +1.1F, +2.79" BWI: +2.4F, -0.11" Looks like this week is pretty close to normal temp-wise, and then temps fall significantly for the last few days of the month. Probably all end up with slightly below normal temps. If the big cold front next week brings some rain, then everyone probably ends up above normal precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Pretty intense jet above us today.. Wow lol. Millersville released a rawinsonde/balloon today at ~ 15:30z (we do one a couple times a year) and recorded 149 kts at ~ 300 mb. ( I forget the actual pressure. We also got our highest balloon ever.. it popped at 28.3mb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 50 degrees at 1AM should be a chilly morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 50 degrees at 1AM should be a chilly morning 44.7 at my place. Only Oct 2/3 were lower so far this season (same as DCA). IAD hit 42, tying their lowest thusfar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 40 for the low here...love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 A preview of what's coming later this weekend maybe....Fort Payne, Alabama: 32 with fog this morning. A lot of 30s in Alabama this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 40 for the low here...love it! 41 on this side of the hood, heat wave here Gorgeous morning, would be nice to rid of the clouds though 45 here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 A preview of what's coming later this weekend maybe....Fort Payne, Alabama: 32 with fog this morning. A lot of 30s in Alabama this morning. The coldest of the cold's going to be contained to the west of the mountains for the most part in our area. Most places will struggle to get below 40... more rural areas hitting upper 30s. Further north up in PA will likely see mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 41 on this side of the hood, heat wave here Gorgeous morning, would be nice to rid of the clouds though 45 here now Im just using Simpson weatherbug Dave...fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Im just using Simpson weatherbug Dave...fwiw I know, just sayin I like theirs better, its colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 44.7 at my place. Only Oct 2/3 were lower so far this season (same as DCA). IAD hit 42, tying their lowest thusfar. Nice, I got 44.7 too It's also great having the crisp temps on a sunny morning, early month was kind of gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 did we just have another earthquake? My root beer was shakin so I know I'm not imagining things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 did we just have another earthquake? My root beer was shakin so I know I'm not imagining things. i didnt feel anything... though when i pulled up USGS there was this from 8 pm 10/19 -- http://earthquake.us.../usb00069xz.php and a 3.0 a week before -- http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_ryau.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Then what could it have been? I'm sure my house shaking isn't good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I'd appreciate it if the clouds went away. Seems they've stuck around the last few days despite the call for more sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I'd appreciate it if the clouds went away. Seems they've stuck around the last few days despite the call for more sun. Yeah, I woke up this morning expecting sun. CWG posted this AM about the clouds that have moved in...says they should be thinned out by afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I'd appreciate it if the clouds went away. Seems they've stuck around the last few days despite the call for more sun. No kidding! We've had a few real nice days this fall, but it seems like 5 out of 7 days are cloudy. Hating it, and we're not even into winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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