lbchandler Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 2:50 PM, H2O said: 12z NAM seems to push the precip back W quite a bit compared to the 6z For several days Joe Bastardi has been hyping the storm in the gulf this morning saying that TPC will once again be caught flat footed when storm produces gales of up to 60 MPH on Fla.coast. Yesterday Henry Margusity was on same train but this morning he says his forecast was a complete bust and only rain we will see will be east of I 95. Who is on his train as opossed to Bastardi's train? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 3:40 PM, lbchandler said: For several days Joe Bastardi has been hyping He's been hyping for a LOT longer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 3:46 PM, WxUSAF said: He's been hyping for a LOT longer than that. We always bring those guys up. They sensationalize every potential threat. Followers remember the sensational events and forget the busts. During the winter when hm posts his heavy I95 snow maps it's like the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 12z GFS cranks a big +PNA ridge starting in about 1 weeks time, which gives us a deep trough a few days later. Ski hat and gloves kind of weather for the trick-or-treaters next weekend? Still too far out to be sure, but 12z GFS still very cold for late next week and the following weekend. +NAO keeps it pretty transitory though. First frost this weekend and first freeze 1 week later? People in the colder 'burbs have a good shot at frost Sunday and Monday morning coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 6:09 PM, WxUSAF said: 12z GFS cranks a big +PNA ridge starting in about 1 weeks time, which gives us a deep trough a few days later. Ski hat and gloves kind of weather for the trick-or-treaters next weekend? Still too far out to be sure, but 12z GFS still very cold for late next week and the following weekend. +NAO keeps it pretty transitory though. First frost this weekend and first freeze 1 week later? People in the colder 'burbs have a good shot at frost Sunday and Monday morning coming up. I've been watching the long range because of an upcoming camping trip and the GFS is locked on to a cold finish to the month. I hate posting anything past 7 days on the models because I'm a weenie so I'm glad you brought it up. I love the first real cold shot of the year and breaking out hats and gloves. Personally, I don't really want a long duration +PNA/-NAO pattern in late Oct and early Nov. Save it for Dec please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KIAD.html It was 62 degrees at IAD at 9:52 Then it was 45 degrees at 10:50 Then it was 66 degrees just two minutes later. That has to be a typo, but its been up there all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 1:03 PM, CoastalWx said: It looks like DC could be wedged in with ne winds, so might be tough. Maybe along the MD shore, has better potential. However, one last hurrah after 00z tomorrow night with the forcing from the s/w?? yeah, probably.. the nam looked OK for a bit tho it seems to have backed off since. i hate winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 7:34 PM, Ian said: yeah, probably.. the nam looked OK for a bit tho it seems to have backed off since. i hate winter. Surface dews in the 70s at 11pm tomorrow night. That'll feel weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 18z GFS looks, interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Can only see graphics on phone but it looks more in line with a svr threat tho maybe too much rain to hit potential. Either way I'm sorta confused why people are selling this as a coastal low so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 11:54 PM, Ian said: Can only see graphics on phone but it looks more in line with a svr threat tho maybe too much rain to hit potential. Either way I'm sorta confused why people are selling this as a coastal low so much. Your name viewing from the subforum front page is not bold. Just an FYI. Could be a global issue. EDIT: it's everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 On 10/19/2011 at 12:16 AM, Kmlwx said: Your name viewing from the subforum front page is not bold. Just an FYI. Could be a global issue. EDIT: it's everyone. Software upgrade.. Probably not all reconnected yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 On 10/19/2011 at 12:24 AM, Ian said: Software upgrade.. Probably not all reconnected yet Darn. I thought you were fired for a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 11:54 PM, Ian said: Can only see graphics on phone but it looks more in line with a svr threat tho maybe too much rain to hit potential. Either way I'm sorta confused why people are selling this as a coastal low so much. Only place I've seen that is in NYC/SNE subforums. Looks like the primary will hold the most energy over the secondary even w/ the gulf stream in this case? Not sure if the QPF progged is the actual convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Not the ideal setup, but there is a good deal of shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 On 10/19/2011 at 12:49 AM, BethesdaWX said: Only place I've seen that is in NYC/SNE subforums. Looks like the primary will hold the most energy over the secondary even w/ the gulf stream in this case? Not sure if the QPF progged is the actual convection? looks like a warm front or some similar feature. dt has been screaming about a coastal for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Puddle pic for Ian from summit of Hawksbill Mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 On 10/19/2011 at 2:06 AM, Kmlwx said: Puddle pic for Ian from summit of Hawksbill Mountain. I miss his puddle pics, he hasn't posted any in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 On 10/19/2011 at 2:06 AM, Kmlwx said: Puddle pic for Ian from summit of Hawksbill Mountain. oh man, I haven't been there in over 20 years I used to stay at Big Meadows 3-5 times a year while in college I even remember that puddle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 NAM just got real wet again (1'-1.25"+), and radar bears it out http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 On 10/19/2011 at 2:36 AM, mitchnick said: oh man, I haven't been there in over 20 years I used to stay at Big Meadows 3-5 times a year while in college I even remember that puddle I passed by Big Meadows and could not get over how awesome it would be to haul the telescope up there. Wide open views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 On 10/19/2011 at 2:39 AM, mitchnick said: NAM just got real wet again (1'-1.25"+), and radar bears it out http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php I've noticed in the past several months that the qpf fluctuates greatly day to day. Euro was 1.95 then .1.20 then .57 then 1.19 in last 4 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 On 10/19/2011 at 2:18 AM, FiveAlarmPhotography said: I miss his puddle pics, he hasn't posted any in a long time I've taken ridiculously few photos this year. Probably the fewest since I became serious about photography. I dunno why. Social media has me kind of bummed as a photog. Like my efforts are better spent elsewhere... Maybe I just need new inspiration (or a new camera). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 this 00z GFS image is intriguing to me, or maybe I'm mistaken? @hr24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Radar down south reminds me of 2/5-6/10 somewhat, that slug of moisture behind the lighter stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 On 10/19/2011 at 4:48 AM, BethesdaWX said: this 00z GFS image is intriguing to me, or maybe I'm mistaken? @hr24 Whats do you find so intriguing about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 It's close. The 500 mb alone is a beaut. We need more than no instability and we need as little or no surface reflection near the coast (or keep it way out) as possible. GFS is probably partly a timing issue though it looks like mainly east winds late day and flipping south late. After dark I'm not sure what we'd get other than a qlcs thingy is lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 On 10/19/2011 at 5:02 AM, wxmeddler said: Whats do you find so intriguing about it? It looks like the OH valley system is progged stronger & in a similar place to the November event last fall where there was little guidance support for heavy storms, let alone an overnight Derecho w/ tornadoes. I know it's a different setup this time with the secondary low feeding low level NE-erly flow rather than SSE but 850's @ 15C packed tightly with a front out west before a wind-direction shift even pre-frontal just seems like it might be worth watching. Or more likely my tired brain is just mis-analyzing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 On 10/19/2011 at 5:03 AM, Ian said: It's close. The 500 mb alone is a beaut. We need more than no instability and we need as little or no surface reflection near the coast (or keep it way out) as possible. GFS is probably partly a timing issue though it looks like mainly east winds late day and flipping south late. After dark I'm not sure what we'd get other than a qlcs thingy is lucky. Don't models tend to under-prog the northward extent of the warm sector usually? Thats what I had assumed writing the post. My greatest recollection was that December 2009 overnight snowpack killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Ceilings are lowering We've already had 4 inches rain this month and 21 inches in September - we dont need no more rain Saving grace is this area of rain is moving like a jetliner - at the rate it is moving NEly - dry slot should hit us by mid to late morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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