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October General Obs/Disc


Ellinwood

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Hi!, man sad showing in here for the Tornado day, you guys need some severe Mets.

Overperforming, under-discussed event >> whatever the hell that "convective threat" thread was in the NE forum.

Forgive us for not screaming TOR outbreak given these soundings from the 18z NAM that day:

post-96-0-34770100-1318858749.png

post-96-0-69247500-1318858612.png

We had 3 or 4 other potential storm days recently with soundings like this that just didn't pan out... got lucky this time :)

Also: raaaaaaaaaaaah sub-forum war :P

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Mark, I don't know why you bother trying to explain yourself to Ginx, obvious troll is obvious.

I know, but I wanted to put the soundings up since it's good data to go back to if need be. I like having it to compare to other days to see what differences there were that caused several tornadoes instead of just having a marginal day.

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1.5"+ on the NAM for Wednesday's storm. Wettest of the NAM/GFS combo since yesterday's 12z NAM.

Models can't seem to decide what they want to do with that coastal low.

Wind field is pretty sick for Wednesday. Any sort of instability (as unlikely as it seems at this point) could make things interesting in eastern VA and maybe on Delmarva. Of course, storm motion would be pretty fast as well (looking at around 50-60 mph). With 850 winds hitting around 50 kts... wouldn't take much instability for convection to bring strong/severe gusts down to the surface.

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