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October General Obs/Disc


Ellinwood

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2050

1 N NANCE NEW KENT VA3748 7713 ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOME ON SOLDIERS REST CIRCLE. MOST OF THE SHINGLES WERE REMOVED FROM THE HOME. (AKQ)

2050

NEW KENT AIRPORT NEW KENT VA3750 7712 A GAZEBO WAS DESTROYED AND NUMEROUS FRUIT TREES UPROOTED AT 7100 LAKE SHORE DR. (AKQ)

2050

1 N FIVE LAKES SUBDIVIS NEW KENT VA3751 7717 TREES DOWN FROM A TORNADO AS IT CROSSED I-64 JUST EAST OF EXIT 205. (AKQ)

2055

1 NNW BROWNS CORNER NEW KENT VA3753 7710 DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO GW WATKINS ELEMENTARY. THE EXTENT OF DAMAGE WAS UKNOWN. (AKQ)

2105

1 WSW POPLAR GROVE NEW KENT VA3758 7706 NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON OLD RIVER ROAD NEAR TALLYSVILLE ROAD. (AKQ)

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

529 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS...AND LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER HAS CAUSED MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. RAPID CHANGE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT HAS CAUSED SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ROTATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES ACROSS THIS AREA.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

529 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS...AND LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER HAS CAUSED MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. RAPID CHANGE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT HAS CAUSED SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ROTATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES ACROSS THIS AREA.

10AM

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WK LOPRES REMAINS OFF THE NJ CST...W/ A STALLED BNDRY STRECHING

WWD ACRS CWFA TO SFC REFLECTION FM UPR LOW OVR IL/WI. SFC FLOW ELY

WHILE FLOW ABV H9 SLY. THAT OVERRUNNING RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTD

-RZDZ ACRS ERN CWFA. IN ADDITION...S/WV ENERGY AND DAYTIME HEATING

/WHAT LTL WE CAN MUSTER/ WL ENHANCE SHRA ACTIVITY LATER TDA. HV

POPS INCRSG TO LKLY/CAT LT TDA-ELY TNGT.

THERE HAS BEEN ISOL ELEVATED TSRA W/IN SHRA THIS MRNG. 12Z RAOB

DEPICT A TON OF CINH...W/ JUST A LTL CAPE. DONT BELIEVE WE/LL

MANAGE TO GET MANY BINOVC /DUE IN PART TO THE CONTD ELY FLOW/...

SO DONT FORSEE NMRS TSRA. HWVR...THERE/S ENUF LIFT...SPCLY INVOF

PVA TAFTN...TO JUSTIFY EMBEDDED SCHC/CHC THUNDER. MOST OF THIS SHUD

REMAIN ELEVATED.

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I'm still mostly willing to stand by the mehness around DC. The best parameters were over C Va where they cashed in better. Sharp cutoff dc and north.

I would agree, once you go north of central/northern VA there is a massive cutoff in instability where you go from SBcapes up near 2500 J/KH with 1000 JKG of MLcape to well below 1000 J/KG of SBcape. There is a bit more in the way of ML forcing too with MLJ max situated further south across VA. Still enough shear in place though which should keep storms potent for a time so they should gradually weaken and perhaps become a bit more elevated in nature given good deal of MUcape in place. Threat should go more towards straight-line winds rather than tornadic once storms move out of the instability-rich environment.

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2050

1 N NANCE NEW KENT VA3748 7713 ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOME ON SOLDIERS REST CIRCLE. MOST OF THE SHINGLES WERE REMOVED FROM THE HOME. (AKQ)

2050

NEW KENT AIRPORT NEW KENT VA3750 7712 A GAZEBO WAS DESTROYED AND NUMEROUS FRUIT TREES UPROOTED AT 7100 LAKE SHORE DR. (AKQ)

2050

1 N FIVE LAKES SUBDIVIS NEW KENT VA3751 7717 TREES DOWN FROM A TORNADO AS IT CROSSED I-64 JUST EAST OF EXIT 205. (AKQ)

2055

1 NNW BROWNS CORNER NEW KENT VA3753 7710 DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO GW WATKINS ELEMENTARY. THE EXTENT OF DAMAGE WAS UKNOWN. (AKQ)

2105

1 WSW POPLAR GROVE NEW KENT VA3758 7706 NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON OLD RIVER ROAD NEAR TALLYSVILLE ROAD. (AKQ)

This is all around us..I think we dodged the bullet!

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Storm northwest of Richmond popped up quickly and has decent rotation...about to enter Sterling's CWA.

Still surprised at no SVR west of D.C.

Also, a likely tornado from the strong meso earlier in Fauquier county:

2 SE MIDLAND FAUQUIER VA SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO A HOME AND BARN ON MIDLAND ROAD. 7 PEOPLE DISPLACED.

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