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October General Obs/Disc


Ellinwood

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The storm east of Richmond exploded. Picked up a good circulation quickly and a decent reflectivity core.

AKQ_loop.gif

TORNADO WARNING

VAC061-153-683-132130-

/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0094.111013T2107Z-111013T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

507 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CITY OF MANASSAS IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

EASTERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 503 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF MANASSAS...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WARRENTON...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. A SECOND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS

LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANASSAS...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MANASSAS...

BULL RUN...

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

457 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

VAC085-101-127-132115-

/O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0081.000000T0000Z-111013T2115Z/

NEW KENT VA-KING WILLIAM VA-HANOVER VA-

457 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN

HANOVER...CENTRAL KING WILLIAM AND NORTHWESTERN NEW KENT COUNTIES

UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 454 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A

CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TALLEYSVILLE...

JUST TO THE EAST OF QUINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

TUNSTALL AROUND 505 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADO INCLUDE PALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER

UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST RESORT... EITHER PARK YOUR

VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW

LYING AREA.

That storm has had a likely debris sig for several scans...

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

535 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CITY OF FAIRFAX IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 534 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH OF

CHANTILLY...OR NEAR CENTREVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CHANTILLY...

FAIRFAX...

MANTUA...

OAKTON...

MERRIFIELD...

RESTON...

WOLF TRAP...

VIENNA...

TYSONS CORNER...

HERNDON...

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Looks like the King William tornado is still on the ground?

KING AND QUEEN VA-ESSEX VA-

537 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ESSEX AND

CENTRAL KING AND QUEEN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 531 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A

CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STEVENSVILLE...OR

NEAR WALKERTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

MILLERS TAVERN AROUND 545 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADO INCLUDE UPRIGHT AND

HOWERTONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR

ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN

A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR

THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

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The pair of storms approaching D.C. have formed into more of a cluster now. Difficult to tell where a tornado

would be...I'm guessing the Sterling crew is issuing these new warnings via the terminal doppler, because

all I see in the storms is a few weak circulations and downburst winds.

This is where warning fatigue can become an issue. If these storms do not produce much in the way of

tornadoes or wind damage, then the public of metro D.C. (both Maryland and Virginia sides) might start

to believe these warnings are not warranted. That being said, these storms are fairly dangerous and

everyone in the path should either drive cautiously or move indoors.

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That's a pretty nasty environment down in the mid-Atlantic right now. A moderate unstable airmass to go along with excellent shear/helicity. I woke up from a nap and coastalwx in the SNE thread for tomorrow made note about DC and I took a look and was in awe over the environment that is in place.

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