Ian Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 TORNADO WARNING VAC047-061-137-132100- /O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0093.111013T2023Z-111013T2100Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 423 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... EASTERN CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 500 PM EDT * AT 421 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEALETON...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CULPEPER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BEALETON... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3862 7785 3851 7765 3833 7790 3838 7798 TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 218DEG 24KT 3838 7792 $$ KRAMAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 tornado watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Off to the east looks like a solid deck of clouds with some higher tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 100 kts outbound @ 4500 ft on the couplet! Tornado likely on the ground now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 100 kts outbound @ 4500 ft on the couplet! Tornado likely on the ground now.. Yeah I'm thinking we might have a strong one...classic TVS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Yeah I already alerted one of our co-workers headed down toward Faquier... path looks to be just west of DC metro if it heads NE continuously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Yeah I'm thinking we might have a strong one...classic TVS... Total distance so far is about 14 miles...couplet still present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Is anyone seeing sun? Completely socked in by fog here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 Going to head out soon, meet up with Jason and do some local chasing in MoCo (or we might hop across the ferry into NoVA if that looks better). No way we can do the beltway at rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Yeah I already alerted one of our co-workers headed down toward Faquier... path looks to be just west of DC metro if it heads NE continuously unlikely it stays on the ground that long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relic Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 missed mby by about 10-12 miles. over mostly farmland now, path shows it heading just east of warrenton but before then it will be closer to more densely populated areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 unlikely it stays on the ground that long I meant the storm itself... co-worker had left like 30 mins ago to go down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Watch is till 11 PM DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS HAS EVOLVED THIS AFTERNOON INVOF OF A WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. THOUGH AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES COUPLED WITH THE MOIST/LOW LCL BOUNDARY LAYER AND VORTICITY ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I meant the storm itself... co-worker had left like 30 mins ago to go down there As long as it lifts off the ground in time I'm fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Remington/Bealeton next big towns in path of tornadic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 The cell has been legitimately TVS'd for 8 consecutive frames (1/2 hour)... very impressive for a Mid-Atlantic storm. EDIT: 9 frames now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 2000 SPC meso shows 40 kts effective shear and 40 kts 0-6km shear across N VA...1000 MLCAPE S and E of Blue Ridge area with 1000 SBCAPE E of BR, 1500 SBCAPE along and SE of I-95 and 2000 nosing into S MD and SE FFX/PW/Stafford/Spotsy. MCS maintence jumped up to 60-70 across N VA/DC/Northern Neck... 1 and 3km EHI's are 2-3... VGP 0.2/0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 A couple of other storms beginning to strengthen, east of the main storm and also heading toward Fredericksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 A couple of other storms beginning to strengthen, east of the main storm and also heading toward Fredericksburg. I like that cell ENE of the main storm... getting well organized and a similar look to the main one. The gap between the two is closing... will be interesting to see which one becomes dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 447 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN HANOVER COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... CENTRAL KING WILLIAM COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA... WESTERN NEW KENT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 515 PM EDT * AT 445 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROXBURY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... TUNSTALL AROUND 500 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 We have had continuous drizzle to light rain since this morning up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I like that cell ENE of the main storm... getting well organized and a similar look to the main one. The gap between the two is closing... will be interesting to see which one becomes dominant. Does one have to become dominant? They're both fairly large, especially the SEern cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Is the Tornado Watch till 11pm or 9 pm? I keep seeing some statements say 9... some say 11.... LWX HWO says till 9pm Watch from SPC says 11 pm on the image, and 9pm on the text? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Still see a small couplet using base velocity in S Fauquier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 NWUS51 KAKQ 132036LSRAKQ PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 436 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0340 PM TORNADO GREEN SPRINGS 38.09N 78.11W 10/13/2011 LOUISA VA BROADCAST MEDIA TREES DOWN AND ROOF DAMAGE REPORTED. && EVENT NUMBER AKQ1100213 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 May need a new warning for the main storm...possibly including Manassas and Manassas Park as well. Edit...perhaps not. Circulation has weakened. Edit...perhaps so. Circulation has cycled and a different circulation has appeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 CONFIRMED TORNADO ON GROUND NEAR TALLEYSVILLE (King William County area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 457 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011 VAC085-101-127-132115- /O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0081.000000T0000Z-111013T2115Z/ NEW KENT VA-KING WILLIAM VA-HANOVER VA- 457 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN HANOVER...CENTRAL KING WILLIAM AND NORTHWESTERN NEW KENT COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT... AT 454 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TALLEYSVILLE... JUST TO THE EAST OF QUINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... TUNSTALL AROUND 505 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADO INCLUDE PALLS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST RESORT... EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Watch was issued too far north. Oh well some brief fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 The storm east of Richmond exploded. Picked up a good circulation quickly and a decent reflectivity core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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