North Balti Zen Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 It keeps raining (lightly) in downtown Baltimore, even if radar mostly says it shouldn't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 It keeps raining (lightly) in downtown Baltimore, even if radar mostly says it shouldn't be. Attack of the mini drops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 good winter coming folks wet fall, dropping -QBO it's coming, be patient Being patient is a prerequisite for being a MA snow weenie. So is being dissappointed 9 times out of 10. GFS is hell bent on bringing a nice cool shot next weekend. -NAO too. Widespread highs in the 40's and lows in the 30's. Maybe 1st frost? I guessed 10/24 for BWI and IAD in the contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 good winter coming folks wet fall, dropping -QBO it's coming, be patient +1 Did anyone else have really loud thunder between 4-5am? It shook the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I also was at 10/24 for BWI for that date in the contest, Bob. Maybe we have that close to right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Squishy out about 1.21 for the event so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I also was at 10/24 for BWI for that date in the contest, Bob. Maybe we have that close to right. Go ahead and check out 384 hour fantasy land 2m temps........brrrr...... I doubt the first shot will give us the first frost next weekend. Surface temps are almost always too cold in the long range. However, the GFS is holding stready on keeping us below to much below for a week starting next thurs. If it does verify, I would think that first freeze before 10/31 is pretty much a lock except for maybe DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Go ahead and check out 384 hour fantasy land 2m temps........brrrr...... I doubt the first shot will give us the first frost next weekend. Surface temps are almost always too cold in the long range. However, the GFS is holding stready on keeping us below to much below for a week starting next thurs. If it does verify, I would think that first freeze before 10/31 is pretty much a lock except for maybe DCA. FYI: BWI's average first fall freeze - 10/29 (from 1947-2007) Dulles - 10/15 (1962-2008) Regan - 11/18 (194-2008) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Maybe a slight chance of an isolated svr storm? Would seem 1900z SPC meso would support it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Maybe a slight chance of an isolated svr storm? Would seem 1900z SPC meso would support it... the cells to the sw look moderately decent so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 +1 Did anyone else have really loud thunder between 4-5am? It shook the house. Yeah had the windows open, did a better job than the alarm ever could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 the cells to the sw look moderately decent so far There was a decent amount of sun down there earlier and it has partly cleared here also. Maybe they can hang together long enough, but we'll be running out of day heating juice soon. Need one to pop a little closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 0.62 in the bucket so far, and by the looks of the modeling at this point it seems the wet pattern isn't done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harv_poor Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Squishy out about 1.21 for the event so far Just finished a round of golf at Lansdowne which is just to the east of leesburg. Basically non-stop drizzle all morning and early afternoon with the course being so wet. It seems like since the Saturday of Labor Day weekend that every round other then last Thursday and Sunday has been very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 TORAKQ VAC109-132000- /O.NEW.KAKQ.TO.W.0079.111013T1937Z-111013T2000Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 337 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN LOUISA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 400 PM EDT * AT 336 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR BOSWELLS TAVERN...OR NEAR GORDONSVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN LOUISA COUNTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE... OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 209DEG 22KT 3810 7818 $ALBRIGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 hmm, nice.. that cell is a bit flying eagle'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 342 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT * AT 339 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF ORANGE IN LOUISA COUNTY...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOUISA...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ORANGE... LAT...LON 3828 7816 3826 7797 3813 7807 3814 7808 3812 7819 3812 7821 TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 197DEG 25KT 3813 7816 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 (Different cell than previous two above) BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 346 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL GOOCHLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... WEST CENTRAL HANOVER COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... SOUTHEASTERN LOUISA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT * AT 345 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OILVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... VONTAY AROUND 355 PM EDT. MONTPELIER AROUND 410 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE DABNEYS... MABELTON AND LOCUST CREEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 None of these are supercells, no hail cores etc. All of this is with dynamics. I'm seeing some mid level meso's but nothing that would indicate it could make it to the ground (albit there are some really low LCL's) It would sure be nice to have dual-pol so I could see some Correlation Coefficient with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 HPC has the warm front right over us. come on storms!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 None of these are supercells, no hail cores etc. All of this is with dynamics. I'm seeing some mid level meso's but nothing that would indicate it could make it to the ground (albit there are some really low LCL's) It would sure be nice to have dual-pol so I could see some Correlation Coefficient with these. I think they're mini sups. The one northwest especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Oh dang... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Not sure I want anymore rain after dumping 0.90" out of the gauge from the last 24hrs of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 Man that cell really came together in the last few frames... didn't think I'd be seeing this on the radar today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 slight risk now up for aera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Can't believe I'm seeing this! Its still there on the next base scan! Edit: Oh what I would do for a dual-pol scan of that right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN AND NRN VA INTO THE DELMARVA... AMENDED TO ADD LOW TORNADO PROBS ADDED 5% TORNADO PROBABILITIES FOR A SMALL PORTION OF VA...MD AND DE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/BOUNDARY MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. LOCALIZED SHEAR IN THIS VICINITY MAY RESULT IN A WEAK AND BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 make it stop, mommy, make it stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Circulation getting tighter on the next scan.. Now have a ND pixel on the circulation center. SW up off the scale for me. EDIT: New warning for Culpeper CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Very intense couplet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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