buckeyefan1 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 641 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011 SCC003-063-071-081-132330- /O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0290.000000T0000Z-111013T2330Z/ LEXINGTON SC-NEWBERRY SC-SALUDA SC-AIKEN SC- 641 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR AIKEN...SALUDA...NEWBERRY AND LEXINGTON COUNTIES... AT 639 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SALUDA TO BATESBURG-LEESVILLE TO NEAR WAGENER. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 45 MPH. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LINE LIKELY CONTAINED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SILVERSTREET...SUMMIT...GILBERT...PELION...SWANSEA...PROSPERITY...RED BANK...GASTON...LEXINGTON...LITTLE MOUNTAIN AND WHITMIRE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 *SIGH* One little gust (approx 30-35mph) and some sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 *SIGH* One little gust (approx 30-35mph) and some sprinkles I had lots of thunder and got a tenth of an inch. That gives me .7 for the week. Sure do need a big gulf low At least it cooled off a bit. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 I had lots of thunder and got a tenth of an inch. That gives me .7 for the week. Sure do need a big gulf low At least it cooled off a bit. Tony I ended up with .06 last night The clouds looked wicked, but as the storm approached everything just died.....only to rebuild just after it passed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Here's something to chew on: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 FYI Winds gusted over 90mph at Grandfather Mountain Summit today. Really put a lot of the leaf color on the ground above 4000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 FYI Winds gusted over 90mph at Grandfather Mountain Summit today. Really put a lot of the leaf color on the ground above 4000 feet. Of course. One day before the weekend to actually be able to get up there and enjoy it. Welp, I guess I'll have to do my backup hike at 3000 feet instead of the backside of Grandfather which is unmatched for beauty when the leaves are at peak and not on the ground. Is this one of those cases where there's either no leaves because they have blown off, or leaves that are still green, with no actual peak zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 OK... it's really slow so... Here's a link to a video that Speedway Motors makes every year at our National Championships. You'll see the Jeep in one part of it, and no, that's not me driving! It's a well done video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Today is why October will always be my favorite month. Clear skies,67.1 DP 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 OK... it's really slow so... Here's a link to a video that Speedway Motors makes every year at our National Championships. You'll see the Jeep in one part of it, and no, that's not me driving! It's a well done video. When they were training us in jeeps back in the 60's they had a tendency to turn over, lol. Looks like they've fixed that glitch So when do we get to see you driving it? Pretty day here. 74, Got some sawing to do before the Tech game....won't be bad. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECUPiratewx Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Absolutely wonderful in Greenville, NC today. 72 right now, sun shining bright. Just a beautiful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 When they were training us in jeeps back in the 60's they had a tendency to turn over, lol. Looks like they've fixed that glitch So when do we get to see you driving it? Pretty day here. 74, Got some sawing to do before the Tech game....won't be bad. T Our season is over, there will be an event in south Georgia the first week of December, but we won't get started here again until late February/March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schlontz Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 OK... it's really slow so... Here's a link to a video that Speedway Motors makes every year at our National Championships. You'll see the Jeep in one part of it, and no, that's not me driving! It's a well done video. Awesome video! I'd really like to get into autox some day when finances allow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Gotta love the temp gradients found in the mtns during the fall. Cullowhee (2021') is 34.6 F (Frost is on the ground at the house) Highlands (4068') is 48.6 F These stations are essentially within the same county; Highlands is about 5 miles outside of Jackson County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Dropped down to 36° here this morning (KJNX - 2 miles from the house) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Temp inversions this time of year can be dramatic here in the mountains. I've got 57.7 here and a station no more than two miles from me at 2350" is at 36.6. I've seen temps this time of here be as much as 30 degrees different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 So, just how cold will it get later this week. Any frosts and freezes in the Piedmont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
64Storm Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Interesting, according to some forecasts KATL will be flirting with record highs both today and tomorrow before the big cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 So, just how cold will it get later this week. Any frosts and freezes in the Piedmont? RAH is not saying anything right now. They only have a overnight drop of around 20 degrees; which if we have cloud cover or some wind could be correct. But, this is typical of their stance this far out. I would think they will start droping the predicted lows starting tomorrow and start mentioning frost/freeze possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Looks like the cold air behind the front will bring the coldest air yet. I'm going with highs upper 50's in ATL and CLT on Thursday and staying in the 40's around the mountains , even Asheville. Snow flurries as well, with a decent upslope event possible north and west of AVL..but I wouldn't commit to it yet. I'm sure SnoJoe is in for a 12 hour bout most likely, but not sure how much will accumulate or if this will be significant. Before that, quite a lot of dynamics coming directly overhead the Southeast on Tuesday afternoon. A 200mb jetstreak and strong divergence in Georgia and especially over the Carolinas by Tuesday night, so this will create a rapidly blossoming rain shied from about Interstate 85 near ATL and all points northeast ward through the Carolinas....meaning quick hitting, maybe heavy rains, especially near the piedmont and by the time it's near the triad/triangle region. The dynamics and lift have been looking extremely impressive with this setup. The storm then develops quickly along the east coast and temporarily cutsoff. As we've seen a couple times already, cutoffs do make snow in the Apps...the stronger the surface and upper low, the more the snow will fall in the mountains of NC/TN and WVA. Wednesday and Thursday will be colder and windy south and east of the mountains. The RH will be high around the deep trough by now going through western NY and St. Lawrence Valley, with winds almost ideal for upslope snow, and temps. just barely cold enough to support snow. Low temps Thursday morning mid 30's nw GA and much of north half Alabama, but clouds and light winds may prevent a frost that morning since so much wrap-around moisture banks in the Tennessee Valley, better chance on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Excellent disco from you as usual Robert. One of the things I like about you as a Met ; You make a prediction as you see it. you don't always do the "adjusting to climatology" crap with these cold blasts. Sadly, Over 90% of the time that is the case with most forecasters, especially this time of year. As was witnessed with the 1st of the Month shot, many failed miserably doing that. If they're solely using the GFS beyond day 5 and adjusting to climo,, then I can see that with the GFS's cold bias. Many forecasters scale the temps down gradually if guidance continues the cold threat but ,most tend to still stay above guidance come d-day. I understand with some they don't want to cry wolf, but, would it not be better to go with guidance in the day 3-4 range and if need be, scale up? I would think most folks would be less likely to get upset, as they do many times when it turns out colder than forecasts had predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Excellent disco from you as usual Robert. One of the things I like about you as a Met ; You make a prediction as you see it. you don't always do the "adjusting to climatology" crap with these cold blasts. Sadly, Over 90% of the time that is the case with most forecasters, especially this time of year. As was witnessed with the 1st of the Month shot, many failed miserably doing that. If they're solely using the GFS beyond day 5 and adjusting to climo,, then I can see that with the GFS's cold bias. Many forecasters scale the temps down gradually if guidance continues the cold threat but ,most tend to still stay above guidance come d-day. I understand with some they don't want to cry wolf, but, would it not be better to go with guidance in the day 3-4 range and if need be, scale up? I would think most folks would be less likely to get upset, as they do many times when it turns out colder than forecasts had predicted. RAH doesn't have this problem. It almost never gets as cold as they predict, sometimes even the day of. My favorite fail of theirs is the consistent forecasting of temps to drop into the upper 20s before a marginal event, and invariably, the temp never goes below 32, thus setting us up for a screwjob the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Dropped down to 36° here this morning (KJNX - 2 miles from the house) We got to 41 whch ties for the coldest of the fall so far, seems like they had forecast a low around 50, yesterday afternoon hunting it was windy and warm in the box stand but once the sun got low the wind died off to nothing and the temp dropped from the upper 70's to upper 50's in a hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 I would think most folks would be less likely to get upset, as they do many times when it turns out colder than forecasts had predicted. Thanks for the nice compliment. RAH doesn't have this problem. It almost never gets as cold as they predict, sometimes even the day of. My favorite fail of theirs is the consistent forecasting of temps to drop into the upper 20s before a marginal event, and invariably, the temp never goes below 32, thus setting us up for a screwjob the next day. around here the last two years, both Summer and Winter the temps have been erring on the colder side of predictions. Esp. when a cold airmass or cooler airmass is invading, but it happened a lot in the Summers too. We consistently go below guidance (but not GFS much) from 5 days and esp. days 4 and 3. The GFS has actually been extremely good at this time range here lately, no matter the pattern. Sunny or damp. Damming or not. NOAA and tv mets always end up adjusting temps the day before or even the morning of...always coming down, not up, with temps, to match the obs. Its been a strange curiousity here for 2 to 3 years straight now. Damming always takes the cake though, and requires major downward adjustment about every single time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Looks like the cold air behind the front will bring the coldest air yet. I'm going with highs upper 50's in ATL and CLT on Thursday and staying in the 40's around the mountains , even Asheville. Snow flurries as well, with a decent upslope event possible north and west of AVL..but I wouldn't commit to it yet. I'm sure SnoJoe is in for a 12 hour bout most likely, but not sure how much will accumulate or if this will be significant. Before that, quite a lot of dynamics coming directly overhead the Southeast on Tuesday afternoon. A 200mb jetstreak and strong divergence in Georgia and especially over the Carolinas by Tuesday night, so this will create a rapidly blossoming rain shied from about Interstate 85 near ATL and all points northeast ward through the Carolinas....meaning quick hitting, maybe heavy rains, especially near the piedmont and by the time it's near the triad/triangle region. The dynamics and lift have been looking extremely impressive with this setup. The storm then develops quickly along the east coast and temporarily cutsoff. Excellent analysis...the 12z GFS is even a smidge stronger with the surface low coming from the Gulf down as low as 995 mb once it enters the South Carolina Low Country...gonna have to keep an eye on this over the next day or so, any trend to the west and that could result in a very wet Tuesday/Wednesday for the Western Piedmont/Foothills/Upstate SC. The immediate coastline may be in the warm sector severe threat, especially if it shifted west any... This storm then drops to 984 as it occludes over Lake Erie...this is going to be one heck of a wind machine Wednesday/Thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Looks like a toasty Monday is shaping up. I bet the President will like the 80+ degree temps here in Wilkes County! Because after that, temps appear to be crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Looks like a toasty Monday is shaping up. I bet the President will like the 80+ degree temps here in Wilkes County! Because after that, temps appear to be crashing. I hope you enjoy his visit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 I hope you enjoy his visit Any President is welcome in my rural area on the side of the mountain! Back on Topic: Should I make another snow observation thread for later this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Any President is welcome in my rural area on the side of the mountain! Back on Topic: Should I make another snow observation thread for later this week? don't know if it will need another thread, but it looks like the snow flakes will be flying in the higher elevations by Thursday morning (maybe as early as late Wednesday night). These kinds of storms are fun to follow , they have everything...classic deep cyclogenesis on a strong thermal boundary in the Southeast, which occludes in the Northeast. Typical high winds and much colder air rushing in Thursday and Friday. Frost possible west of the Apps Fri. am, then more widespread frost from Ms. Tn. Al. Ga and Carolinas and Va. on Saturday morning as the winds go calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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