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October Obs.


jrips27

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2250

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1222 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121722Z - 121845Z

TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE SEA

BREEZE AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS FAR ERN NC.

ISOLATED THREATS EXIST FOR A STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR BRIEF

TORNADO...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE OF THESE THREATS PRECLUDES THE NEED

FOR A WW.

AT 17Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SUPERCELL LOCATED OVER ERN

JONES COUNTY NC ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS

REGION HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF

30-35 KT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION /MULTICELLS AND A FEW

SUPERCELLS/. ALTHOUGH STRONG SURFACE HEATING OVER SERN NC WILL

MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR FURTHER STORM

DEVELOPMENT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE OVER

EAST CENTRAL TO NERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED

A SMALL MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING NEWD ACROSS THESE LATTER

AREAS...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AID STRONGER

SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS /AS INDICATED BY JONES COUNTY STORM/.

MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT HAIL SIZE PRODUCTION TODAY. THUS...

ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE THE

GREATER THREATS. THE LATTER WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE-3 KM CAPE

VALUES OF 100-150 J/KG COMBINED WITH SURFACE VORTICITY IN VICINITY

OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FAVORING LOW LEVEL STRETCHING.

..PETERS.. 10/12/2011

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

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I need two weeks of bone dry weather and/or a freeze very soon. Went down to pull some trail cameras today and the mosquitoes are at "biblical" levels. Can't even walk 5 feet without them bouncing off your face and any exposed skin is fair game. I actually ran a circle around my truck trying to lose the cloud of them before I opened my truck door. Thankfully i'm in the middle of nowhere so that fiasco wasn't witnessed.

Heres a close-up bear pic where you can see the size of these mosquitoes.

MDGC0007-1.jpg

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Total form the system as of this morning is 1.70" !!

I got caught in some really heavy rain just north of Spindale at the end of Hudlow Rd yesterday...the colors there were already way nicer than here so far. My rain from this system was .94", most of it fell last night as the main convergence axis moved through. I haven't been able to look at much weather lately, since I'm busy with parents and preparing for Winter, taking advantage of the recent nice sunny days. Looks like a great weekend coming up, after a rough Thursday. We keep getting these massive eastern troughs/cutoffs lately, thanks to a strong la nina pac-jet. Next week looks to repeat the pattern, even some high lat. blocking. Looks a lot like last winter, with supressed flow and cold intrusions deep into the South.

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post-38-0-27156600-1318457994.gif

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I got caught in some really heavy rain just north of Spindale at the end of Hudlow Rd yesterday...the colors there were already way nicer than here so far. My rain from this system was .94", most of it fell last night as the main convergence axis moved through. I haven't been able to look at much weather lately, since I'm busy with parents and preparing for Winter, taking advantage of the recent nice sunny days. Looks like a great weekend coming up, after a rough Thursday. We keep getting these massive eastern troughs/cutoffs lately, thanks to a strong la nina pac-jet. Next week looks to repeat the pattern, even some high lat. blocking. Looks a lot like last winter, with supressed flow and cold intrusions deep into the South.

Bolded = :wub:

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Bolded = :wub:

I was just thinking it has been days since I've seen the sun....and I could really get to liking this :) I loved those winters when I was a kid where you'd got 2 or 3 weeks with very little, if any sun. It was what I though winter was. Man, I hope this is a cad winter :) A week or more at a time like the last few days, scattered through the winter.....and bitter cold from those deep troughs, in between, with storms at the transitions.

It's been damp and cool all day. You can really tell everything around the yard is happy! 65 at present. T

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I need two weeks of bone dry weather and/or a freeze very soon. Went down to pull some trail cameras today and the mosquitoes are at "biblical" levels. Can't even walk 5 feet without them bouncing off your face and any exposed skin is fair game. I actually ran a circle around my truck trying to lose the cloud of them before I opened my truck door. Thankfully i'm in the middle of nowhere so that fiasco wasn't witnessed.

Heres a close-up bear pic where you can see the size of these mosquitoes.

That's damn hilarious. Worst I've seen mosquitos was on the outer banks one September.

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That's damn hilarious. Worst I've seen mosquitos was on the outer banks one September.

Yeah i'm sure I looked really foolish. I started with a fast walk and when I got to my tailgate I took off running. Worst part is that it didn't work. I still have a little pride left cause as bad as it was I didn't scream when I was running. Me and downeastnc have to brave them again on Friday maybe i'll try to shoot some video of them.

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We have been very dry here, at least IMBY. After some light drizzle on Tuesday morning, it was mostly sunny the rest of the day. I thought that was all the rain we would get but showers moved in after dark. I was surprised (and very happy!) when the rain gauge had .95 in it yesterday morning. I hope we get a repeat today.

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I was just thinking it has been days since I've seen the sun....and I could really get to liking this :) I loved those winters when I was a kid where you'd got 2 or 3 weeks with very little, if any sun. It was what I though winter was. Man, I hope this is a cad winter :) A week or more at a time like the last few days, scattered through the winter.....and bitter cold from those deep troughs, in between, with storms at the transitions.

It's been damp and cool all day. You can really tell everything around the yard is happy! 65 at present. T

I was sitting outside yesterday thinking the same thing...re winter time wedges. Even though it wasn't cold, it was easy to place myself into a good one in my head lol. This has to be the year we finally have a good (bad) icestorm that we haven't had really in 6 years. I'll be so glad when winter gets here.

But I do worry about something..we have been so spoiled the last several seasons, surely it will not live up to the past 3 seasons and it's probably going to be a let down, even if we have a normal winter. Only can hope it's not too "normal".

I meant to post this yesterday but I picked up 1.25 inches of rain. Got real lucky with that one band sitting over me for so long. Radar showed 2.5 inches south of athens IIRC.

Yeah i'm sure I looked really foolish. I started with a fast walk and when I got to my tailgate I took off running. Worst part is that it didn't work. I still have a little pride left cause as bad as it was I didn't scream when I was running. Me and downeastnc have to brave them again on Friday maybe i'll try to shoot some video of them.

:lmao: That is indeed hilarious. You must have thought you lived in alaska.

Of course no issues with them here since it's been so dry for so long. For some reason, we actually don't normally have many problems with them here even when it has been wet..even though there is a sediment pond not that far away which is the perfect breading ground for them. It doesn't have water in it year around most years (since we seem to be in a drought every year now) and it shrinks to essentially a series of large mud puddles in the summer before eventually drying up completely. I do try to stock them with fish I catch in the spring to deal with that problem but those fish don't survive when it shrinks. One would think they would be worse than they are here with it so close by but they aren't...thank god.

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I was just thinking it has been days since I've seen the sun....and I could really get to liking this :) I loved those winters when I was a kid where you'd got 2 or 3 weeks with very little, if any sun. It was what I though winter was. Man, I hope this is a cad winter :) A week or more at a time like the last few days, scattered through the winter.....and bitter cold from those deep troughs, in between, with storms at the transitions.

It's been damp and cool all day. You can really tell everything around the yard is happy! 65 at present. T

I could too :wub:

Yeah i'm sure I looked really foolish. I started with a fast walk and when I got to my tailgate I took off running. Worst part is that it didn't work. I still have a little pride left cause as bad as it was I didn't scream when I was running. Me and downeastnc have to brave them again on Friday maybe i'll try to shoot some video of them.

:lol: I would have

I was sitting outside yesterday thinking the same thing...re winter time wedges. Even though it wasn't cold, it was easy to place myself into a good one in my head lol. This has to be the year we finally have a good (bad) icestorm that we haven't had really in 6 years. I'll be so glad when winter gets here.

But I do worry about something..we have been so spoiled the last several seasons, surely it will not live up to the past 3 seasons and it's probably going to be a let down, even if we have a normal winter. Only can hope it's not too "normal".

I meant to post this yesterday but I picked up 1.25 inches of rain. Got real lucky with that one band sitting over me for so long. Radar showed 2.5 inches south of athens IIRC.

:lmao: That is indeed hilarious. You must have thought you lived in alaska.

Of course no issues with them here since it's been so dry for so long. For some reason, we actually don't normally have many problems with them here even when it has been wet..even though there is a sediment pond not that far away which is the perfect breading ground for them. It doesn't have water in it year around most years (since we seem to be in a drought every year now) and it shrinks to essentially a series of large mud puddles in the summer before eventually drying up completely. I do try to stock them with fish I catch in the spring to deal with that problem but those fish don't survive when it shrinks. One would think they would be worse than they are here with it so close by but they aren't...thank god.

It takes a lot for me to want to take a space on your ledge. Every winter is a new beginning with the same hope. I just ask for one legit shot at wintertime precip. I just don't like it when I have to wait almost a decade before I get that one legit chance :lol:

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I was sitting outside yesterday thinking the same thing...re winter time wedges. Even though it wasn't cold, it was easy to place myself into a good one in my head lol. This has to be the year we finally have a good (bad) icestorm that we haven't had really in 6 years. I'll be so glad when winter gets here.

But I do worry about something..we have been so spoiled the last several seasons, surely it will not live up to the past 3 seasons and it's probably going to be a let down, even if we have a normal winter. Only can hope it's not too "normal".

I meant to post this yesterday but I picked up 1.25 inches of rain. Got real lucky with that one band sitting over me for so long. Radar showed 2.5 inches south of athens IIRC.

:lmao: That is indeed hilarious. You must have thought you lived in alaska.

Of course no issues with them here since it's been so dry for so long. For some reason, we actually don't normally have many problems with them here even when it has been wet..even though there is a sediment pond not that far away which is the perfect breading ground for them. It doesn't have water in it year around most years (since we seem to be in a drought every year now) and it shrinks to essentially a series of large mud puddles in the summer before eventually drying up completely. I do try to stock them with fish I catch in the spring to deal with that problem but those fish don't survive when it shrinks. One would think they would be worse than they are here with it so close by but they aren't...thank god.

No, man, we are embarked on a string of much better than normal winters, and the best is yet to come. Last year we broke the White Christmas jinx, and among the next is a 100" winter like Joe gets, lol. This year I get my 6" sleet, to make up for getting shafted on amounts the last few winters, while you and north Atl. got hit with the deep stuff :) No more dry slots for Tony this year!!!

But first, I'd sure like to see a gulf low come up and dump the juice on me. I'm still about 3" for the last nearly 2 months. Got no mossies around here. I haven't sprayed on the Off for weeks. T

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Fixing to get some rain. The thunder is pervasive, and the wind is picking up. Radar says the area of storms made it across the border in tact, so I'm hoping it comes to my yard, and isn't in too much of a hurry to leave. I'd hate to have another one of those all thunder and no rain blanks I kept getting all summer. Fingers crossed. We've been getting warned so I hope it is real. T

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The very active pattern continues next week. A good weekend (maybe some high winds Friday some areas) then a comfortable weekend, before a building NAO next week. We're getting to the time of year where a -NAO means something, namely rain. So both models have a decent s/w getting forced south midweek across the country, thanks to the closed high over Greenland and Rex Block configuration developing by then. Could be the first real synoptic snow on the backside of the low if there's enough cold air in places like northern Missouri, Chicago/Lakes region, before that front comes pushing strongly into the Southeast yet again, not to mention some decent rains (maybe T-storms) ahead of the front mid week. And a nice colder than average airmass coming back in. Its certainly not boring.

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post-38-0-25218200-1318536081.gif

post-38-0-92447400-1318536090.gif

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The very active pattern continues next week. A good weekend (maybe some high winds Friday some areas) then a comfortable weekend, before a building NAO next week. We're getting to the time of year where a -NAO means something, namely rain. So both models have a decent s/w getting forced south midweek across the country, thanks to the closed high over Greenland and Rex Block configuration developing by then. Could be the first real synoptic snow on the backside of the low if there's enough cold air in places like northern Missouri, Chicago/Lakes region, before that front comes pushing strongly into the Southeast yet again, not to mention some decent rains (maybe T-storms) ahead of the front mid week. And a nice colder than average airmass coming back in. Its certainly not boring.

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post-38-0-92447400-1318536090.gif

Awesome Robert! Long time no see, good to have you back on board.

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