October Obs.

[Sunny and Warm]

Last 8 GFS runs for potential early week SE US tropical storm: pretty consistent

18Z Wed: Brunswick 1000 mb 10/11

00Z Thu: St. Augustine 1005 mb 10/11

06Z Thu: Charleston 1003 mb 10/11

12Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb 10/11

18Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb late 10/10

00Z Fri: Wilmington 1008 mb 10/12 (appears to be extratropical at landfall)

06Z Fri: Beaufort 1003 mb 10/11

12Z Fri Midway 1005 mb 10/10

Although no other major model has yet to show a definitive SE coast tropical storm landfall (as far as I know), the GFS has been pretty consistent/insistent on this over a fairly tight corridor (St. Augustine to Charleston). Also, the GGEM is now getting close to this kind of solution after previously being in the Gulf. The Euro is still holding tough with its Gulf solutions. However, even it is showing subtle signs of moving further east. We'll see. The UKMET is still going with the Gulf (as of the 12Z Fri run), but it often is a west outlier. Fun times for some of us for a change!

Thanks as well for this listing. My hunch is that we'll never see a name for this, and winds will be an afterthought. I can see this slide along the coast from Augustine to Charleston with no definitive landfall. What I see is heavy rains as this crawls up the coast with that high slowing it down up north.

[calculus1]

I'm gonna be pissed if we are in between rain again. It's been on both sides of us but not directly over us.

While you may not be in-between rain, it does appear that central NC is a relative minimum for rainfall per the 12Z GFS. There's definitely a plus to being either in the western or eastern part of the state if you want good rains from this system. Here's a 72-hour precip total from the 12Z run valid at hour 108.

For once, pretty much all of SC is looking good for precip. I know those folks around Columbia could really use the rain. In addition, the eastern parts of GA hit the jackpot too. Atlanta and points west don't look too good for rainfall according to the latest GFS projections. Of course, this will probably all change with the next run. It just gets us ready for the upcoming snow season where we tend to live and die by the models!

[dsaur]

Man, oh, man...everytime I'm outside and face northeast and get wind in my face I just smile Can't help it. This has got to be a year for cad. I'm calling it now...Tony gets some sleet this winter. Sure fire, lol! Now, if I can just get some rain, instead of Goofy sending the perfect storms in lala land way to the east in real time, I'd be set. T

[oconeexman]

Been out of the loop for over a week, got moved (about 5 miles north of old house) and had neck surgery (bone fusion) on tuesday. I'm trying to get some winter rye to grow and like the looks of next week's chances! Really enjoying these awesome temps lately too and can't believe some of ya'll saw snow already!

[Sunny and Warm]

Doesn't look like HPC is moving the QPF too far over time. Looks like it locking into a coastal solution over GA and SC.

[Cold Rain]

While you may not be in-between rain, it does appear that central NC is a relative minimum for rainfall per the 12Z GFS. There's definitely a plus to being either in the western or eastern part of the state if you want good rains from this system. Here's a 72-hour precip total from the 12Z run valid at hour 108.

Central NC is always in a relative minimum.

[metalicwx366]

Doesn't look like HPC is moving the QPF too far over time. Looks like it locking into a coastal solution over GA and SC.

:thumbsup:

[Marion_NC_WX]

Looking more and more like a hybrid storm system developing over Florida and will begin to slide north tomorrow and monday...12z GFS shows a weak 1009mb low drifting over the Florida Panhandle. Plenty of moisture should begin to move from south to north as there were be a tight pressure gradient...I think to call this a hybrid may even be generous. Brad Panovich gave a perfect description last night calling it a "southern noreaster".

The Southeast Coast from North Carolina to Florida is going to take a pounding from that east to west flow...rainfall amounts should not be too out of control for any area. If a band of rain sets up over your area, then consider yourself lucky. Probably will be a max along the coastline where the rich Atlantic flow comes inland...could also be another max somewhere along the Appalchians where the east flow banks along the mountains.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Man...this place is deader than 3 o'clock on a saturday afternoon...

[Sunny and Warm]

Man...this place is deader than 3 o'clock on a saturday afternoon...

It's almost as dead as Al Davis. Here, this will brighten your spirits:

[EmersonGA]

We spent the day hiking along one of my favorite trout streams in Fannin county today. Lots of color along the stream which is around 2500 feet. You could see splashes on the mountain sides but they are still a week or two from peak. One of the coolest things we saw was a row of three lenticulars formed off the western edge of Burnt/Oglethorpe mountains. The east wind was blowing parallel to the mountain side so I guess the conditions were just right. I snapped a picture and I will post it in a couple of days.

[dsaur]

We spent the day hiking along one of my favorite trout streams in Fannin county today. Lots of color along the stream which is around 2500 feet. You could see splashes on the mountain sides but they are still a week or two from peak. One of the coolest things we saw was a row of three lenticulars formed off the western edge of Burnt/Oglethorpe mountains. The east wind was blowing parallel to the mountain side so I guess the conditions were just right. I snapped a picture and I will post it in a couple of days.

After watching Tech tip toe thru the dookie on the way to another win, I worked outside until dark. Even though it was still 70 that northeast wind made me think about putting on a long sleeve shirt along about sundown

Wish I'd been with you instead. It would have been a good day to go hiking! Maybe we get some rain, you and me, but I'm not holding my breath. T

[Sunny and Warm]

Looks like HPC is locking in on GA/SC coastal areas for max. Over 8" of rain along the coast.

[EmersonGA]

That was a nail biter Tony. It was a brilliant day yesterday but I like coudy cool days like today. Im smoking a Boston butt and the hickory smoke is wafting through the house. A perfect fall day. I hope the hpc map is right. Ive been watering my greens from the rain barrel. It works good but rain is less time consuming.

[buckeyefan1]

After watching Tech tip toe thru the dookie on the way to another win, I worked outside until dark. Even though it was still 70 that northeast wind made me think about putting on a long sleeve shirt along about sundown

Wish I'd been with you instead. It would have been a good day to go hiking! Maybe we get some rain, you and me, but I'm not holding my breath. T

The past few days the 06 GFS takes away all the rain while the 12 GFS wants to show mby some love. If I were a betting person I would go with the chance of sprinkles

[dsaur]

That was a nail biter Tony. It was a brilliant day yesterday but I like coudy cool days like today. Im smoking a Boston butt and the hickory smoke is wafting through the house. A perfect fall day. I hope the hpc map is right. Ive been watering my greens from the rain barrel. It works good but rain is less time consuming.

Can't beat actual rain. I watered my new grass all spring and into early summer before it just died away. I had given up on it. Then I got two inches of natures real stuff a couple of weeks ago, and lo and behold, the dead grass sprang up and turned the brown to green. That lasted about a week, but I have great expectations for when the big rains come, if they ever do. A gulf low would make this place look like paradise

The past few days the 06 GFS takes away all the rain while the 12 GFS wants to show mby some love. If I were a betting person I would go with the chance of sprinkles

Good call, Beauty, at least for here I had just enough sideswipe from that stray area of sprinkle this morning to dampen part of my shed roof. Didn't see much evidence on the ground, but my hopes are actually higher now for later on. Atlantic rain has actually found me, and more might follow the path that was blazed, lol. T

[Psalm 148:8]

Can't beat actual rain. I watered my new grass all spring and into early summer before it just died away. I had given up on it. Then I got two inches of natures real stuff a couple of weeks ago, and lo and behold, the dead grass sprang up and turned the brown to green. That lasted about a week, but I have great expectations for when the big rains come, if they ever do. A gulf low would make this place look like paradise

Good call, Beauty, at least for here I had just enough sideswipe from that stray area of sprinkle this morning to dampen part of my shed roof. Didn't see much evidence on the ground, but my hopes are actually higher now for later on. Atlantic rain has actually found me, and more might follow the path that was blazed, lol. T

We had a very nice lite rain here this morning for a couple of hours.....just perfect to put out winter rye later today. Really suprised....didn't really expect the rain til later tonite or tomorrow........and wasn't expecting that much anyway.

[SN_Lover]

"...Heavy Rain Threat Expected This Weekend Over the Southern Plains and Southeast... Published: Fri, 07 Oct 2011 14:15:33 EDT Moderate to Heavy Rainfall will develop from a series of systems that move over the central and southern Plains over the weekend. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches per hour will be possible, with totals of 4-8 inches of rain and locally higher amounts over 10 inches possible by Monday morning. This should put a significant dent in the ongoing severe drought over portions of the area, but this amount of rain in a short period of time could also lead to possible flash flooding across northern Texas and Oklahoma. Severe weather will also be possible, with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats. In the Southeast, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected this weekend from a persistent onshore flow and a developing low pressure system off the Florida coast. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches per hour will be possible, with totals of 4-8 inches and locally higher amounts near 10 inches possible by Monday morning." (weather.gov)

[WilkesboroDude]

[buckeyefan1]

Can't beat actual rain. I watered my new grass all spring and into early summer before it just died away. I had given up on it. Then I got two inches of natures real stuff a couple of weeks ago, and lo and behold, the dead grass sprang up and turned the brown to green. That lasted about a week, but I have great expectations for when the big rains come, if they ever do. A gulf low would make this place look like paradise

Good call, Beauty, at least for here I had just enough sideswipe from that stray area of sprinkle this morning to dampen part of my shed roof. Didn't see much evidence on the ground, but my hopes are actually higher now for later on. Atlantic rain has actually found me, and more might follow the path that was blazed, lol. T

Well...the downward trend in precip has started now as even the 12z GFS only gave me about .25

NWS still giving me an 80% chance on Monday and a 60% chance on Tuesday, so hopefully I'll get a few sprinkles.

[Bozart]

Melbourne, FL base reflectivity shows a pretty impressive system, tightening up. Looks like an interesting night for the Space Coast.

[DaculaWeather]

Banding and a circulation center are showing up: http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/fl-state_melbourne_mlb_br248.php

[dsaur]

Banding and a circulation center are showing up

Hope those bands find their way up here! Goofy wants to break off a bubble of heavier precip and run it up this way. Hope that happens as it would get all of us.. The band to the west didn't drop anything here, but I was outside and don't know if radar had it over me at all.

Well...the downward trend in precip has started now as even the 12z GFS only gave me about .25

NWS still giving me an 80% chance on Monday and a 60% chance on Tuesday, so hopefully I'll get a few sprinkles.

Well, I like your chances better than ours over here. If that sou'easter cranks up good it ought to hit you with the juice

We had a very nice lite rain here this morning for a couple of hours.....just perfect to put out winter rye later today. Really suprised....didn't really expect the rain til later tonite or tomorrow........and wasn't expecting that much anyway.

I've been so dry overall, I'm afraid to put out any rye until Nov. I've got to see some rain before I can get behind grass seed again Good luck with yours...hope you have the sprinklers ready.

[Solak]

800 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...IT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTH FLORIDA BY EARLY TUESDAY. AS LONG AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER WATER...THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND MONDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

[GaWx]

Pressures are sig. lower than were progged by all model runs except, interestingly enough, those THU/FRI GFS runs I posted showing a pretty well organized low moving NNW not far from where the low is now. The lowest pressure on those THU/FRI runs was 1,003 mb (and 1,000 mb on a Wed. run as it headed further NNW toward GA). The lowest is now down at least as low as 1,003 mb and is moving either NW or NNW! It will be interesting to see how this evolves. At the very least, it appears to me that the GFS, which was mostly on its own with its E of FL pretty well organized sfc low, is suddenly looking like a guru!!

Check out the conditions at a buoy at 28.5 N, 80.2 W, which is ~50 miles E of Cape Canaveral **note the 3.4 mb/0.10" fall in pressure during just the last hour!** Also, note the 4 F temp. rise from 73 F to 77 F. Also, note the SST of 82 F there...plenty warm enough to allow for tropical development:

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL

AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)

6 PM 28.5N 80.2W 74 82 10/ 31/ 39 1008.6F 20/12 16/12

7 PM 28.5N 80.2W 73 82 10/ 39/ 47 1006.8F 19/11 15/11

8 PM 28.5N 80.2W 77 82 20/ 41/ 54 1003.4F 22/11 18/11

[downeastnc]

Hopefully this thing crosses Florida and takes the bulk of the rain with it and gives us a break here in eastern NC. Its been over a week since we had any rain and the ditches and other low spots are still holding water and the mosquitos are about

<----------------------------------------------------------> this big so I hope those that want it get it west of I95 but here we have had 30+ inches in some spots since the week before Irene.

[metalicwx366]

We are now under a flood watch until this evening with 3-6 inches of rain possible. I have no clue why we dont have a wind or lake wind advisory. The winds are strong especially when one of those squalls come in. Then a tornado watch just to make things worse until 1pm lol.

[DaculaWeather]

We are now under a flood watch until this evening with 3-6 inches of rain possible. I have no clue why we dont have a wind or lake wind advisory. The winds are strong especially when one of those squalls come in. Then a tornado watch just to make things worse until 1pm lol.

You need the rain! Glad you'll get a lot! I'll have Moody AFB GRLevel3 loop going shortly(EDIT: Working now). http://www.daculawea...b_vax_br248.php

[DopplerWx]

Rain is just offshore but headed this way. Local mets calling for 4-6" of rain with locally heavier amounts. Flooding will be a big issue downtown, especially seeing as once the rain starts it may not stop for a long while.

[Sunny and Warm]

Rain is just offshore but headed this way. Local mets calling for 4-6" of rain with locally heavier amounts. Flooding will be a big issue downtown, especially seeing as once the rain starts it may not stop for a long while.

The only downside to Charleston is that it floods on the sunniest of days it seems. I hope you guys get some rain, but not too much. I'm not hopeful of that though.