dsaur Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Sure hope next Wed. comes about, but I've been burned with that scenario several times already by Goofy. It's either too far west, or too far east. Come on goofy get this one just right..up the spine, and dropping copious amounts as it goes. I need a foot just to catch up! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 amazing how fast we get unused to the temp swing lol. after the chill this weekend todays upper 70s feels warm in the sun. although its dry, it is just gorgeous outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 This omega block and ridging is going to last a while. I don't really see how we're going to get cooler than average temps for at least 7-10 days from now. On the plus side, what goes up must come down. This will enable a lot of cooler weather to slowly build the snowpack in northern Canada and allow the cold air to build, so eventually it'll come down. I would guess we might get a similar cold front in the 2nd half of October (after the 15th), and maybe one or two after that. The big question is if ridging will come back in November in order to prime things for December or if we go towards more of a zonal pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Folks, The Wed 18Z gfs has what looks to me like a full-fledged tropical storm coming ashore near Brunswick, GA, early on 10/11. This is defintely something to monitor as the pattern of persistent (4+ days) and rather strong NE US ridging aloft and at the surface is the kind that can allow for this in Oct. This setup typically allows for a westerly component of steering and no safe recurve. Also, this is not way out in model fantasyland as it is only 5-6 days from now. SST's are in the high 70's to near 80 F near shore and in the middle 80's in the Gulf Stream, plenty warm enough to allow for a TC in the area. Also, upper levels appear to me to be warm enough by then and upper winds conducive enough to support a TC. Looking at climo/history, it being La Nina makes this a bit more likely than if it were another ENSO phase. Edit: Fwiw, further into this run (fantasyland) there is a hurricane hit on SW FL on 10/20. Wow! This run should wake people up with two SE US TC hits within 10 days of each other! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Folks, The Wed 18Z gfs has what looks to me like a full-fledged tropical storm coming ashore near Brunswick, GA, early on 10/11. This is defintely something to monitor as the pattern of persistent (4+ days) and rather strong NE US ridging aloft and at the surface is the kind that can allow for this in Oct. This setup typically allows for a westerly component of steering and no safe recurve. Also, this is not way out in model fantasyland as it is only 5-6 days from now. SST's are in the high 70's to near 80 F near shore and in the middle 80's in the Gulf Stream, plenty warm enough to allow for a TC in the area. Looking at climo/history, it being La Nina makes this a bit more likely than if it were another ENSO phase. I'm hoping we can get some appreciable rainfall out of this regardless if it's tropical or not. Also I don't know how credible the Canadian is when it comes to the tropics, but the 12z run is doing some odd things with this system. It shows two lows in the central GOM then at the end of the run it appears to morph into one main surface low. It showed the same thing on yesterday's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 OCT GA TC landfalls since 1851: 1) 1898 #7 MH: weak La Nina 2) 1916 #12 TS: strong La Nina 3) 1947 #7 TS: negative neutral 4) 1947 #8 H: negative neutral 5) 1985 Isabel TS: negative neutral Note that all were during a negative ENSO, which is the case for 2011. Dates of these Oct.landfalls: 2, 4, 7, 10, and 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 OCT GA TC landfalls since 1851: 1) 1898 #7 MH: weak La Nina 2) 1916 #12 TS: strong La Nina 3) 1947 #7 TS: negative neutral 4) 1947 #8 H: negative neutral 5) 1985 Isabel TS: negative neutral Note that all were during a negative ENSO, which is the case for 2011. Dates of these Oct.landfalls: 2, 4, 7, 10, and 15. After looking at the models and now seeing this by you, history is not on my side and I should have known better than to plan a honeymoon in Jamaica for next week . Actually just started paying attention to this threat in the past few days and will be watching it closely since we leave Tuesday for there. Keep up the good disco guys, I'll be needing it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 6z gfs says its gonna water my yard: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 GFS has been all over the place -- While I do like what the 06z is showing, the 00z overnight only showed me getting 0.31" over the next 16 days, according to MeteoStar.com. Now it's showing 2.69" over the same period. *shrug* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 GFS has been all over the place -- While I do like what the 06z is showing, the 00z overnight only showed me getting 0.31" over the next 16 days, according to MeteoStar.com. Now it's showing 2.69" over the same period. *shrug* GFS has been out to lunch the last few runs, I feel more inclined to believe what the Euro is showing because it's been consistent, but then again so has the Canadian. It's still showing those two lows in the GOM and it seems to bring the best chance of rain for everyone across the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Sorry to say this to the north Georgia posters but this tropical system appears to be coming in from the Atlantic and not the GOM. It looks like the Global models are starting to trend to a GA/SC coast "landfall" moving north from there leaving most of Georgia out of the heaviest rains, those appear to be reserved for SC and northward......The Euro is the most consistent and is favored by the HPC but I'm not buying it. The GFS and Canadian both show this hybrid thing coming in from the Atlantic and the Euro/UKMet shows the GOM. I think the Euro will trend to the GFS and Canadian but we shall see....I'm interested in the 12Z run of the Canadian and Euro.... It is still very uncertain obviously but my early call FWIW is an Atlantic storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 As of the Thu 12Z GFS, the last four GFS runs have shown a more organized TS landfalling anywhere from NE FL to CHS on Tuesday 10/11. That is pretty consistent and it is only five days away (i.e., somewhat predictable): 18Z Wed: Brunswick 1000 mb 00Z Thu: St. Augustine 1005 mb 06Z Thu: Charleston 1003 mb 12Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb This is something interesting to watch, especially for the coastal peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Sorry to say this to the north Georgia posters but this tropical system appears to be coming in from the Atlantic and not the GOM. It looks like the Global models are starting to trend to a GA/SC coast "landfall" moving north from there leaving most of Georgia out of the heaviest rains, those appear to be reserved for SC and northward......The Euro is the most consistent and is favored by the HPC but I'm not buying it. The GFS and Canadian both show this hybrid thing coming in from the Atlantic and the Euro/UKMet shows the GOM. I think the Euro will trend to the GFS and Canadian but we shall see....I'm interested in the 12Z run of the Canadian and Euro.... It is still very uncertain obviously but my early call FWIW is an Atlantic storm.... Good discussion. HPC has locked on a reformation from the west side of FL to the east side of FL and GA and then up the coast. The current depiction from HPC takes all this into account. Will be interesting to see how this all pays out the next 48 hours. Appears to be a blocking high of sorts further north, so this may be a slow mover, and dump more than depicted. Fortunately, I'll be in PA next week, so I'll be in the "sunny and warm" segment. I hope our brothers and sisters to the west get some rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 There is rain in the forecast here from tomorrow to Thursday. In addition to strong winds in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 That X max looks to be right over my back yard 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Looks likely that I'll be dealing with some serious rainfall here in chs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Looks likely that I'll be dealing with some serious rainfall here in chs. looks rainy for many over the next five days. This is only through Wednesday at 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I really hope this stays west of us and gives someone else the rainfall. Last thing I want or need is more rain right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I really hope this stays west of us and gives someone else the rainfall. Last thing I want or need is more rain right now. where do you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 looks rainy for many over the next five days. This is only through Wednesday at 8am. My goodness look at the rainfall for Texas!! A true godsend if it happens.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Texas really needs that rain so hopefully some of that verifies. As for my house... bring on the rain! My new grass would gladly appreciate it as would my water bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 where do you live? Eastern NC. We have been getting tons of rain over the last 6 weeks and i've had roughly 25 inches since late August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I'm gonna be pissed if we are in between rain again. It's been on both sides of us but not directly over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 12z GFS continues to bring this sub-tropical feature up along the Florida/Georgia coastline and just inland...axis of heavy rain on the model run shifted towards Northeast GA. All in all, confidence increasing that we'll get some good rains from this hybrid feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 12z GFS continues to bring this sub-tropical feature up along the Florida/Georgia coastline and just inland...axis of heavy rain on the model run shifted towards Northeast GA. All in all, confidence increasing that we'll get some good rains from this hybrid feature. for my edification, is NE GA the Augusta area or Savannah area?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 for my edification, is NE GA the Augusta area or Savannah area?? Savannah is in SE GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Last 8 GFS runs for potential early week SE US tropical storm: pretty consistent 18Z Wed: Brunswick 1000 mb 10/11 00Z Thu: St. Augustine 1005 mb 10/11 06Z Thu: Charleston 1003 mb 10/11 12Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb 10/11 18Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb late 10/10 00Z Fri: Wilmington 1008 mb 10/12 (appears to be extratropical at landfall) 06Z Fri: Beaufort 1003 mb 10/11 12Z Fri Midway 1005 mb 10/10 Although no other major model has yet to show a definitive SE coast tropical storm landfall (as far as I know), the GFS has been pretty consistent/insistent on this over a fairly tight corridor (St. Augustine to Charleston). Also, the GGEM is now getting close to this kind of solution after previously being in the Gulf. The Euro is still holding tough with its Gulf solutions. However, even it is showing subtle signs of moving further east. We'll see. The UKMET is still going with the Gulf (as of the 12Z Fri run), but it often is a west outlier. Fun times for some of us for a change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Last 8 GFS runs for potential early week SE US tropical storm: pretty consistent 18Z Wed: Brunswick 1000 mb 10/11 00Z Thu: St. Augustine 1005 mb 10/11 06Z Thu: Charleston 1003 mb 10/11 12Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb 10/11 18Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb late 10/10 00Z Fri: Wilmington 1008 mb 10/12 (appears to be extratropical at landfall) 06Z Fri: Beaufort 1003 mb 10/11 12Z Fri Midway 1005 mb 10/10 Although no other major model has yet to show a definitive SE coast tropical storm landfall (as far as I know), the GFS has been pretty consistent/insistent on this over a fairly tight corridor (St. Augustine to Charleston). Also, the GGEM is now getting close to this kind of solution after previously being in the Gulf. The Euro is still holding tough with its Gulf solutions. However, even it is showing subtle signs of moving further east. We'll see. The UKMET is still going with the Gulf (as of the 12Z Fri run), but it often is a west outlier. Fun timesLast 8 GFS runs for potential early week SE US tropical storm: pretty consistent 18Z Wed: Brunswick 1000 mb 10/11 00Z Thu: St. Augustine 1005 mb 10/11 06Z Thu: Charleston 1003 mb 10/11 12Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb 10/11 18Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb late 10/10 00Z Fri: Wilmington 1008 mb 10/12 (appears to be extratropical at landfall) 06Z Fri: Beaufort 1003 mb 10/11 12Z Fri Midway 1005 mb 10/10 Although no other major model has yet to show a definitive SE coast tropical storm landfall (as far as I know), the GFS has been pretty consistent/insistent on this over a fairly tight corridor (St. Augustine to Charleston). Also, the GGEM is now getting close to this kind of solution after previously being in the Gulf. The Euro is still holding tough with its Gulf solutions. However, even it is showing subtle signs of moving further east. We'll see. The UKMET is still going with the Gulf (as of the 12Z Fri run), but it often is a west outlier. Fun times for some of us for a change! Thanks for the summary. I don't care where it lands as long as we get some rain out of it. It really is dry here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Savannah is in SE GA. thanks. I guess NE GA is up the state line from Augusta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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