Marion_NC_WX Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 The 2011 growing season here along the escarpment is officially in the books... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 34.5f IMBy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 just dipped to 28° at 7:35AM We hit 28 as well and were below freezing from 3:35 to 8:35 am which is pretty decent seeing the coolest we hit before this was 36, so last night was our first frost/freeze all in one pop also the record low for the 30th is 30 so it also set a new record low for Greenville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 We hit 28 as well and were below freezing from 3:35 to 8:35 am which is pretty decent seeing the coolest we hit before this was 36, so last night was our first frost/freeze all in one pop also the record low for the 30th is 30 so it also set a new record low for Greenville. 29.8 was my low this morning. Below freezing for 5 hours. Got my new wether station up just in time to catch the first freeze of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 29 this morning with the first freeze of the year and third frost of the season. NWS had us only in a frost advisory for last night. Has been a long time since I can remember getting our first freeze and this many frosts in the month of october. Might be a good sign of things to come this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Only tapped 30.4 this morning. Was hoping to dip into the 20s. Thought I was a sure bet to get there a few days ago. Still pretty remarkable to have this much going on so early in the season. Heavy frost this am was beautiful btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 31.5 imby!!! heavy frost Did not get a chance to post yesterday about the snow I saw in Boone. As we were driving into Boone down 321, the rain mixed and changed to snow as soon as we got out of the truck at 7:55am. Steady mod snow for 20-40 mins (no accu) and strong winds!! If was an awesome site Snowed off and on until around noon. A great day to be outside in Boone !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Got down to 30 this morning, so the first frost on the ground and truck. Its been a great October, plenty of great weather, some record highs, near record cold, and very active and damming events and an historic east coast storm. Plus the leaves are the nicest I've ever seen around here. So far, everything is going as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 28.4 was the low here, though there was frost only on my truck and the roof; none at all on the grass. Warmed up nicely though! 54.8. Leaves finally showing some nice color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 28.8 this morning with leftover moisture frozen for 1st freeze of the season and heavy frost on rooftops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Was looking ahead at the GFS and wow THAT's some cold air.....at 384 hours haha This should be taken with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 Was looking ahead at the GFS and wow THAT's some cold air.....at 384 hours haha This should be taken with a grain of salt. 1054 high in Colorado. lol if only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 If we had a dollar last year for every time the GFS said that there would be record breaking epic cold we would have about $600. Good to see the GFS is still the GFS during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 If we had a dollar last year for every time the GFS said that there would be record breaking epic cold we would have about $600. Good to see the GFS is still the GFS during winter. +1....Yep, some things will never change..........However, last winter one of those GFS specials was pretty darn close to verifying from 300 hours, but it never comes close on the temps from that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Here is a temp map for last night's first freeze for central NC (From RAH): http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/content/10.30.2011.freeze.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 +1....Yep, some things will never change..........However, last winter one of those GFS specials was pretty darn close to verifying from 300 hours, but it never comes close on the temps from that far out. Euro showed some impressive cold shots last year in it's 168-240 range that also never verified. Remember this image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Was looking ahead at the GFS and wow THAT's some cold air.....at 384 hours haha This should be taken with a grain of salt. It's at h384 - ignore it. Now, the current NE storm that just left showed up around hour 288, but didn't go away that much. I'd wait until something like this gets to within h180 consistently - with other model support, before latching onto it. What the GFS is seeing is just the chance of colder air down the road, but the devil's in the details. We'll get another cold front in November, but it probably won't be that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 The NAO appears to be sliding into weak negative territory. While I give the GFS zero cred at 384 verbatim, sometimes days 14-15 will signal what the pattern "could" hold if a gazillion things happen in sequence. I look more at day 14 for hints at changes in the pattern. If enough runs of the GFS show the pattern, some credence should be given. That will eliminate some of the chaos that models simply don't handle well at all. For the mets out there, is there actually some value in the day 16 forecast or is it just too far out there to be given any credence? I'm assuming some value must be found at 384 or it wouldn't be part of the process. Also, are the models getting better at handling day 10 and beyond (w/ better computers w/ larger memories) or is the chaos of the system too much to handle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 The NAO appears to be sliding into weak negative territory. While I give the GFS zero cred at 384 verbatim, sometimes days 14-15 will signal what the pattern "could" hold if a gazillion things happen in sequence. I look more at day 14 for hints at changes in the pattern. If enough runs of the GFS show the pattern, some credence should be given. That will eliminate some of the chaos that models simply don't handle well at all. For the mets out there, is there actually some value in the day 16 forecast or is it just too far out there to be given any credence? I'm assuming some value must be found at 384 or it wouldn't be part of the process. Also, are the models getting better at handling day 10 and beyond (w/ better computers w/ larger memories) or is the chaos of the system too much to handle? I know I have heard a few mets talk about how the ENS models are much better than the operational model for long term outlooks especially the spaghetti plots. I agree that the long term 250+ model runs can give us an idea of what might happen but it just seems to very rarely verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 It's 44 here now, but this morning was 28. Air was at freezing or below for eight hours. Heavy frost! Yesterday, this was the view of Banner Elk from atop Linville Gorge. It was still snowing up there at 2 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I don't think you can totally just rule out anything the GFS says verbatim at the longer ranges, just because its the "gfs at long range". The operational model has been on a roll this year since right after the Christmas storm and its been almost unbeatable and caught many long range events and pattern changes well ahead of the other models. But I have no idea if it will remain that way. Usually in the colder months certainly ECMWF is the better model, but not always and both can be similar at a day 5 to 7 event and both be pretty badly wrong, and that goes for ensembles too. Just the way it is in weather. When I look at models and ensembles, I look at the big picture and work inward, and see if it makes sense. Never make specifics for any one location that far out, too much can change. That said, the pattern we're in is going to be continued extremely active, for many folks on the forum...the only way it could get any more active would probably be to be in a strong El Nino. First another possible weak closed low (ECMWF ) this weekend in the East or Apps, then a blizzard possibly comes out of the Rockies and into the Upper Midwest by next week, and there is another stream in Canada with a few things crossing the country there to lay down snow, so the snow cover should begin expanding across Canada at a very rapid pace pretty soon (and on a pretty large scale). The GFS builds a huge height anomaly around Scandinavia, and works it north and west, and it uses that to force a Polar Vortex pretty far south to develop in Canada toward the end of the run. Then sudden amplification in the Pacific, which by then will send a pretty big outbreak of cold air south into the US. I don't usually trust models at that time range though unless there's plenty of other support, and the spaghetti plots are all over the place at that time, from huge Greenland block similar to last Winter, to just zonal flow. With the way things have been working out, I'd say we go to extremes one way for a little while yet. The seasons are in adjustment phase quickly now and some areas could skip the heart of Fall and head into an early Winter pattern pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Euro showed some impressive cold shots last year in it's 168-240 range that also never verified. Remember this image: Well, that one actually came close, it just dropped down further west. Remember the record cold deep into Texas then? The Dallas area had low teens for a high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 While we're on the subject of incredible set ups and such, anyone remember this bad boy from last year? Unreal of how strong that system was around this period and the winds were very impressive from what I've heard up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 30.9 this morning in Dahlonega. 2nd straight freezing morning and a good frost everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 31.2 this morning. i didnt get up early enough to see frost over the weekend, but this morning i did. had a very heavy frost this morning, so thats i think three in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 33 around here this morning with scattered clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Another hard freeze here in the east temps got down to 28 and we were below freezing for 9 hrs that should be the end of the mosquitos but with temps warming back up the end of this week ya never know the little buggers are resilant. The last two nights MHX forecast our low to be 34 and both nights we hit 28......hopefully it doesnt rain tonight so the kiddies can get to go trick or treating but it looks like the timimg of this wave is pretty crappy for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 And now, Indian Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 33 this morning with a heavy frost. We got robbed yesterday morning by fog. The airport to my west hit 29. We were at 33 by 3am or so and then fog rolled in and raised it up to 35. Boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Got down to 30 here overnight - I guess the cirrus veil kept it from going any lower. I was really liking the way our forecast looked this morning - 1/4" to 1/2" tonight. They've since backed off on that with the updated AFD. Oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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