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October Obs.


jrips27

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36 this morning. It was 38 when I left and I couldn't see any frost. Maybe some on the roofs later.

36 here this morning as well. No frost in the yard or on the cars, but the usually colder lower and protected parts below the house had a little bit. Not bad for oct 3.

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36 this morning. It was 38 when I left and I couldn't see any frost. Maybe some on the roofs later.

45.3 this morning at the house, Dobbins came in at 44. The contrast between me and you is a prime example of the heat island.... I'd say we are no more than about 20 miles away from each other.

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45.3 this morning at the house, Dobbins came in at 44. The contrast between me and you is a prime example of the heat island.... I'd say we are no more than about 20 miles away from each other.

Not much asphalt my way and I live in an elevated valley surrounded by small mountains. I'm set up for some good radiational cooling. If I had a thermometer in my lower yard I bet I could knock off another degree or so but that's too far for a remote.

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Looks like a long stretch of indian summer weather is ahead. Maybe we can get some moisture back in here early next week. All that rain and the cold dry low dp's with wind have completely dried the topsoil back out again. Seems the models say we will have to wait until atleast the second half of October for our next shot at below normal temps, which is to be expected climo wise.

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Hope some rain appears here. I haven't done as well as many of you. Barely 2 3/4's over a month and a half stretch. The two inches I got recently made dead things come back to life, but they are all dead again. Even under the leaves is good and dry now. Got down to 41.6 this morning. Tony

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12Z GFS moves a tropical system from the GoM all the way to New England....

FFC even mentions it in their afternoon discussion.

MOISTURE THEN BEGINS TO SKIRT PARTS OF CENTRAL GA IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY TO TUESDAY WITH ONLY LOW POPS ASSOCIATED. TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY BUT NOT YET FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT CENTRAL GA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

HPC:

INALLY...DAILY COORDINATION WITH THE NHC RESULTED IN AGREEMENT TO DEPICT A BROAD LOW OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL ORIGIN IN VICINITY OF CUBA/SOUTH FLORIDA FOR DAYS 6/7. ALTHOUGH SOLUTION SPREAD IS EXTREMELY HIGH WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM...CONTINUITY FOR ITS FORMATION FROM YESTERDAY'S MODELS IS GOOD WITH EVEN MORE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS NOW ON-BOARD. THE BROAD NATURE OF ITS DEPICTION IS DUE TO THE VERY HIGH SPREAD WITH WHERE TO POSITION THE LOW WITH THE FINAL PROGS REPRESENTATIVE OF A GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND.

Hope it plays out, this looks like the next "best" chance majority of us can see some rain. In the mean time I'm looking forward to

this up coming week of around average to slightly above average temps, and cool nights.:thumbsup:

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NWS-Tally has a pretty good write up about the Tropical system in todays AFD:

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY).

MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS ONCE AGAIN FOCUSED AROUND

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME SORT OF SUBTROPICAL LOW IN

THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF RUN TO

RUN CONSISTENCY...WITH THE ECMWF TENDING TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT

MODEL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE

ECMWF WAS ONE OF THE FIRST MODELS TO DEVELOP SUCH A LOW...AND FOR

NOW IT SEEMS TO BE PRESENTING ONE OF THE MORE CREDIBLE SOLUTIONS.

THE MECHANISMS FOR THE GENESIS OF THIS SUBTROPICAL LOW (AS FORECAST

BY THE NUMERICAL MODELS) REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT.

CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN FAIR ABUNDANCE ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY

FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND WSW TOWARDS THE YUCATAN

STRAIT. THE TSTMS IN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS ARE ALSO IN THE

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60-80 KT UPPER LEVEL JET THAT CURLS NORTH

AROUND THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE NE CONUS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE IN SOME FORM THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLOWLY FALLING SURFACE

PRESSURE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. BY THE WEEKEND MODELS FORECAST

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TAKE PLACE WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW

DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE INITIALLY BETWEEN 20N AND 25N. THE AREA WILL

REMAIN SQUARELY WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL

JET STREAK...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PUSHING INTO THE AREA WILL HAVE

CONTRIBUTED TO A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN

THE MID LEVELS. BASICALLY THERE WILL BE A HANDFUL OF FACTORS

FAVORING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE MAINTENANCE OF ANY CONVECTIVE

CLUSTERS. PINPOINTING THE AREA WHERE THINGS COME TOGETHER MOST

FAVORABLY IS RATHER DIFFICULT AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE OVERALL FORECAST

IS FOR THE GENESIS OF A SUBTROPICAL LOW THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SLOW

MIGRATION TO THE NW AND EVENTUALLY NORTH.

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