burgertime Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Down to 52 here in CLT. You can feel the chill in the air. Getting that old winter itch now. Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's not underperforming here. We're already getting pouring rain and the temps are going to be dropping throughout the day. They actually finally put a chance of snow showers into our local forecast - although with no accumulations. My roses were blooming yesterday, too. I know I'm a newb here but does CAD even effect Knoxville, TN - being west of the Apps? Additionally, the current NWS forecast for Knoxville doesn't mention any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The ground can't get warmer if the air is cooler. The ground over time, with more snow, will actually cool down - especially at the surface. The snow also acts as an insulator, as well. This is my point. I know this may be a crude experiment, but I if you take 6" of soil, warm it to a certain temp, and cover it a few inches of snow, that eventually those temps even at 2-4" will cool down and the snow will stop melting. Even if the snow doesn't come into direct contact, whatever melts is going to send very cold water down to that soil level. The deeper you go, the further the temp lags behind the surface. However, near the surface, the ground temps will nearly always be in phase with air temps unless there is ample snowcover to insulate the ground. With all due respect, you are from Georgia. You guys aren't exactly experts in snow. http://www.nrc-cnrc....digest-180.html LOL. Too funny. I can guarantee you that we are experts in how our ground temps affect both our snow accumulation and length of time that our snow stays on the ground. Your quote, from a Canadian ground temp article (LOL), mentioned a lag time in ground temp response to the environment above it. Yes snow does cool down the ground temps but down here in the good ole south our ground temps are typically too warm to give our snow enough time to cool it down enough to the point where it stops melting from underneath. It does happen occasionally but that is the exception rather than the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is this a flashback from Nov of 1950? Unsure, memory only goes back to 1980, but I am going to go ahead and post this... Not much to grasp at right now so why not a 192 hr 6z GFS panel. Euro and GFS have been toying with this recently, GFS a couple runs, Euro had it yesterday at 12z, however 0z pumped a monster SE ridge in the timeframe. Thinking is we may see one. More sig storm before the pattern breaks down yielding some lakes cutters for the middle of Nov. System basically ocludes over NE, more like a B type, never really transfers to the coast, but very deep vort dropping out of Canada in less than 7 days, I know, grasping at early season straws... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Reports of sleet are coming in from Grandfather Mtn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Unsure, memory only goes back to 1980, but I am going to go ahead and post this... Not much to grasp at right now so why not a 192 hr 6z GFS panel. Euro and GFS have been toying with this recently, GFS a couple runs, Euro had it yesterday at 12z, however 0z pumped a monster SE ridge in the timeframe. Thinking is we may see one. More sig storm before the pattern breaks down yielding some lakes cutters for the middle of Nov. System basically ocludes over NE, more like a B type, never really transfers to the coast, but very deep vort dropping out of Canada in less than 7 days, I know, grasping at early season straws... GFS at hour 186, looks like it could be snow in DC but rain in up-state NY. There has been some crazy setups so far this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow there TN guy. While we might live in Georgia, that doesn't make us idiots or any less knowledgeable about snow. And actually I grew up in Nashville and went to school at UT Knoxville, so your assumption is already flawed. Lol, I can say one thing we are down here is experts on melting snow Sunny and 55 here, not bad really for Oct. but I'm wanting cad and drizzle. Oh, well, the day is young. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nice. I think GSP was thinking about a noon change time. Ahead of schedule is great. Thanks for the report... Reports of sleet are coming in from Grandfather Mtn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol, I can say one thing we are down here is experts on melting snow Sunny and 55 here, not bad really for Oct. but I'm wanting cad and drizzle. Oh, well, the day is young. T Just give it time. Some of the observations from NE GA are showing the boundary slowly moving in. Winds are coming in from the East/NE with DP drops. Its a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol, I can say one thing we are down here is experts on melting snow Sunny and 55 here, not bad really for Oct. but I'm wanting cad and drizzle. Oh, well, the day is young. T 61 here as the front slides just to my south. I'm ready for cad and drizzle too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just do not fall a sleep while you are teaching I hate the red birds. But much respect about last nights game... Hoping this system speeds up about 3-6 hours and the system is pulling east by 8am for the high country. Already have light drizzle here in mby... I managed to stay awake in my 8 AM Precalc course, but I can't say the same for all my students! There seems to be an inversely proportional relationship to amount of sleep taken during class and grade on test. Hmm...Maybe I should do a paper on that. I feel like I'm on the cusp of some ground-breaking research... I didn't have a dog in the fight during last night's WS game, but I appreciated it solely for the sheer excitement and drama. I'm glad it went seven games, but there's no way tonite's game can live up to the previous few. Even though radar is showing no returns over me, it's currently 48 and drizzling. It's been this way all morning. Hi temp at my house was 61.0 exactly at midnight. Come on CAD!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 All I can say is that he doesn't represent ALL of us in Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I know I'm a newb here but does CAD even effect Knoxville, TN - being west of the Apps? Additionally, the current NWS forecast for Knoxville doesn't mention any snow. Nope, it does not. Nice catch! The cold air damming is occurring as the high pressure to the north pumps cool/cold air down the east side of the Apps. The mountains prevent the air from escaping to the west, and so it pools and spreads further south. At least, that's my amateur explanation. I'm sure one of the more knowledgeable members of our forum could explain it better, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol, I can say one thing we are down here is experts on melting snow Sunny and 55 here, not bad really for Oct. but I'm wanting cad and drizzle. Oh, well, the day is young. T I think I just got a new one-liner to add to my signature. I love it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Reports of sleet are coming in from Grandfather Mtn. Not surprised being that Beech Mtn. is already at 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z NAM says........the CAD in North GA. Looks way less impressive than previous runs. On to the GFS..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think I just got a new one-liner to add to my signature. I love it!! Though it is not a distinction I'm necessarily proud of It boggles the mind to think of how many feet I've lost in cooling the ground enough to hold an inch! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z NAM says........the CAD in North GA. Looks way less impressive than previous runs. On to the GFS..... of course sigh lol. its 54 and cloudy, have had a few sprinkles but thats about it. still no roaring ne wind here (always a good sign from previous cads. although its been so long i have a hard time remembering ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Though it is not a distinction I'm necessarily proud of It boggles the mind to think of how many feet I've lost in cooling the ground enough to hold an inch! T Oh, you should be proud of the statement. I love witticisms. And, you pretty much nailed our injudicious poster with that statement. If you were, instead, implying that you're not proud of having a knowledge of snow melting, then I'm right there with you. I wish I knew nothing about snow melt either...at least not until the spring thaw. (Maybe someday I'll move to Alaska.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Waiting on the low to form down south of us. Looks like there is starting to be an area of low pressure getting it's act together just off the coast of LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 of course sigh lol. its 54 and cloudy, have had a few sprinkles but thats about it. still no roaring ne wind here (always a good sign from previous cads. although its been so long i have a hard time remembering ) Griteater posted some great reads on CAD on the banter thread! What we are wanting, you and I, is the development of a barrier jet. My favorite part of cad along with the cold, precip and thick clouds, is that steady, harsh wind!! Oh, you should be proud of the statement. I love witticisms. And, you pretty much nailed our injudicious poster with that statement. If you were, instead, implying that you're not proud of having a knowledge of snow melting, then I'm right there with you. I wish I knew nothing about snow melt either...at least not until the spring thaw. (Maybe someday I'll move to Alaska.) Ha... and I've been thinking someday I'll move to North Carolina, lol. I know SnoJoe wants me for a neighbor...he just hasn't come right out and said it, lol. Yep, just not proud of expertise on all the various ways snow can disappear here whle you are blinking, or when the cat sneezes Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Damn, we're already in Storm Mode! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I swear such a waste for a perfect setup so early in the year. I wish this was the end of Nov instead of end of Oct. Anyway temps here continue to fall roughly 1.2-1.4 degrees per hour. Down to 43 atm. At that rate should be in the upper 30s by 230-3. If GFS is right about the sub 32 dps coming in later about the same time the moisture does.... I seriously believe it will be a 33-34 degree rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thinking about making a trip up the mtn tonight what would be the best area to see snow? Target area is somewhere in Avery or watauga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Was wondering what americanwx was on storm mode until I saw this. This is the 12Z NAM run snowfall totals. Keep in mind, ground temps are still relatively warm so a couple of inches could be lost to melting. Average soil temperature : For the NC mountains: (NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC1033 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011) ".WITH DRY AIR ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. POPS WILL RAPIDLYAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONDECREASE DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS WEST OF I-26. BASED ON THETIMING OF TEMPS AND PRECIP...I WILL FORECAST LIGHT ICING HIGHELEVATION ICING ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH AROUND .5 INCH...ESPECIALLYACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NRN MTNS ABOVE 3500 FEET. WEWILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT IN THE HWO. MIN TEMPS SHOULDRANGE FROM U20S TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...MID 30SACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS...TO U30S EAST." Update: the low(2nd attached image) has formed, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thinking about making a trip up the mtn tonight what would be the best area to see snow? Target area is somewhere in Avery or watauga. Top of Beech Mtn is always a choice spot. 5000ft+ elevation and they do great in upslope snows too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's surreal that I am snowtracking in October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Latest GFS is trying to make this mainly a NE storm. I still think the northern NC Mountains get a couple of inches above 4,000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Finally getting some winds from the NE at my house and the temperature has started to fall. Hope the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well looks like 64 was the high temperature for today as I have dropped down to 50 now. Nice solid deck of clouds with a light NE wind; a good sign of the CAD settling in. The way the outside looks reminds me of the winter days right before a good snow falls here. If only this were early December.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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