sctvman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Map from @wxbrad on Twitter of snow GFS models in mountains: http://twitpic.com/76sh7s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well the NAM cleared up nothing, other than the fact on the free site it shows it colder It did for me. It showed the potential for colder rain(33-35) followed by a very very slim chance of a few token flakes after downslope and drying start kicking in. Map from @wxbrad on Twitter of snow GFS models in mountains: http://twitpic.com/76sh7s Jeeze I wonder when the town of South Boston/Cluster Springs bought a huge snow blower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well the NAM cleared up nothing, other than the fact on the free site it shows it colder. All things considered, if your hunting a snowstorm NW NC and western VA is the place to look tomorrow night and early Saturday. By Sat. morning, cold air advection and upslope will be in full swing in the usual upslope country of ne TN and west NC....that alone is going to be decent...but somewhere between nw NC and the Shenandoah Valley is probably going to get an unprecedented October snowstorm. A foot in some places? Possible. But the warm ground this time of year is going to melt it rapidly...still, the quick falling nature of the sudden heavy snow could be a disaster for some trees still holding leaves. The ground temp doesn't have that much of an impact if the snow is heavy and abundant enough. It was about 80F the day before it snowed half a foot or more in Denver, and parts of the TX Panhandle got a half foot with ground temps that were still relatively warm. If there's enough of it, it'll cool enough of the ground to support snow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The ground temp doesn't have that much of an impact if the snow is heavy and abundant enough. It was about 80F the day before it snowed half a foot or more in Denver, and parts of the TX Panhandle got a half foot with ground temps that were still relatively warm. If there's enough of it, it'll cool enough of the ground to support snow anyway. He didn't say that it couldn't accumulate but that it would just melt quickly. Ground temp is huge for how long it sticks around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Map from @wxbrad on Twitter of snow GFS models in mountains: http://twitpic.com/76sh7s I think the models could be underestimating a little, not by much, but by a little. The NWS in Blacksburg is only forecasting 1". This will likely change. Also, the wording out of Morristown put the typical "rain... then rain" in the forecast for KTRI and Bristol. This will likely change to "rain... then rain mixed with snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 One other thing, dynamics really play a massive role...any heavy precip could easily switch a spot on the border right over , back and forth between types. I defnitely recall January 1998 living there and a forecast of rain....It began snowing hard and never stopped for 36 straight hours, had around 30" on the ground. Obviously not going to happen this time, but I've seen enormous busts in the very short term. I have a great story about this from when I lived in Floyd County, VA back in the 70s only mine occurred in late April and was more than 30". Remind me when things slow down again after this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 He didn't say that it couldn't accumulate but that it would just melt quickly. Ground temp is huge for how long it sticks around. I don't find that to be the case at all. Once you get enough snow it'll cool the ground after a while. The biggest reason why snow doesn't stick around in lower latitudes even when it's chilly is due to the temps not being cold enough in the air and the angle of the sun. 32 degrees in the sun in GA in January is going to be much different than 32F in the sun in Iowa. We've had a few days where we'll get snow and it only sticks around in the shaded areas even if the temps are topping out in the upper 20s - and the reason is the sun angle. In fact, some shaded areas around here can keep snow for a week, and up in the mountains some spots can remain covered in snow for an entire season. Yet, I've been in the upper midwest and Oslo, NO in the dead of winter, and even when it was sunny and 35 what snow was around didn't melt very much. In fact, in Oslo, there are many days where it's about 32-35F in the day but with such a low sun angle not much melts, and what does always refreezes at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I was looking at the older runs from it too. It lost the southern stream on a few runs and allow the northern stream to dominate, and that gave the Southeast NO precip at all on a few runs...I mentioned it in this thread somewhere. But as it turns out, the southern stream was so slow that it allowed the northern stream and dammng to take shape , which still allows the winter storm (sort of for some) to take shape....So, right , but for the wrong reasons. One other thing on GFS ..it lost this storm, only to bring it back and ended up following ECMWF....now this is a first for the season really. It will be interesting to see if the Euro re-gains its superiority in the Winter in most events. But I've definitely notice since after the Christmas storm, its been quite the opposite....ECMWF following GFS almost every meaningful event. Could be biases at play. Only time will tell. Eventually I will hop off the GFS train most likely and follow suit with the usual, but some intances is dangerous to do that, just got to know when the GFS is out to lunch. I swear that happens a lot with the GFS in winter. It ends up being right, but for the wrong reasons. The one area where the ECMWF seems to really perform well is with sfc lows that don't get their act together until the GA/Carolina coast (like this upcoming weekend's storm). The Jan 22 coastal storm was one where the ECMWF definitely lead the way, while the other models had no storm, or were way off the coast with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This storm is a product of insane blocking in Canada. I'm not sure you can really call this a -NAO. More like a retrograded block over Canada. Don't look for Canadian snowcover to advance anytime soon. But, if this is a preview for winter we're in for a ride. when I was putting together my winter forecast, october 62 matched up real well w/ the current setup. This led to a very cold November in 62. Foothills you have any info if the southern mid-atlantic had snow in oct/nov 62? Outside of the mountains. Here's what I see looking at old COOP Data: Banner Elk, NC 11/5/62 - 3 inches Blacksburg, VA 10/26/62 - 1.5 inches 11/3/62 - 11/4/62 - 4 inches 11/25/62 - 11/26/62 - 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't find that to be the case at all. Once you get enough snow it'll cool the ground after a while. The biggest reason why snow doesn't stick around in lower latitudes even when it's chilly is due to the temps not being cold enough in the air and the angle of the sun. 32 degrees in the sun in GA in January is going to be much different than 32F in the sun in Iowa. We've had a few days where we'll get snow and it only sticks around in the shaded areas even if the temps are topping out in the upper 20s - and the reason is the sun angle. In fact, some shaded areas around here can keep snow for a week, and up in the mountains some spots can remain covered in snow for an entire season. Yet, I've been in the upper midwest and Oslo, NO in the dead of winter, and even when it was sunny and 35 what snow was around didn't melt very much. In fact, in Oslo, there are many days where it's about 32-35F in the day but with such a low sun angle not much melts, and what does always refreezes at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think I remember that one here at KTRI too. The forecast was for a high of 43 and light rain, rain and they dynamics were so great that heavy rain very quickly changed to heavy snow and we ended up with b/w 28-36 inches here in the city (depending on where you were) An incredible storm and a COMPLETE bust by every forecaster (there were even busts within the bust - as snow was much heavier than anyone could have predicted) Quite possibly the most fun storm I have ever witnessed. Ah, I remember this storm very well. Quite possibly the most snow I've ever seen on the ground. It absolutely poured wet, heavy snow that quickly knocked out power. Power stayed out for a week, which is the longest power outage I've experienced. I wouldn't mind seeing another in this lifetime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Winter Storm Watches making their progression southward through Virginia. Let's see how Blacksburg will act on this. Update Looks like they added a few counties in Virginia for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 63.4f is the high of the day... at midnight Currently 52f High this afternoon will be in the low 40's? burr....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't find that to be the case at all. Once you get enough snow it'll cool the ground after a while. The biggest reason why snow doesn't stick around in lower latitudes even when it's chilly is due to the temps not being cold enough in the air and the angle of the sun. 32 degrees in the sun in GA in January is going to be much different than 32F in the sun in Iowa. We've had a few days where we'll get snow and it only sticks around in the shaded areas even if the temps are topping out in the upper 20s - and the reason is the sun angle. In fact, some shaded areas around here can keep snow for a week, and up in the mountains some spots can remain covered in snow for an entire season. Yet, I've been in the upper midwest and Oslo, NO in the dead of winter, and even when it was sunny and 35 what snow was around didn't melt very much. In fact, in Oslo, there are many days where it's about 32-35F in the day but with such a low sun angle not much melts, and what does always refreezes at night. No matter what the sun angle is, if the ground temps are very warm it will melt more quickly. And by ground temps I and everyone else is referring to the temp of the soil at 2-4" soil depth. In your example above you stated air temps at 4-5 feet above the ground. What were the soil temps in your examples? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Already drizzling outside here. Temp has fallen to the upper 40s. (Best World Series game ever last night! I can't believe I stayed up for the whole thing, but it was worth it!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well I guess my high of the day has already been reached a couple hours ago. Currently 49 temps should be slowly falling all day. Surprising already had some light showers come through this morning very very light though. NWS has lowered my low tonight to 35. Makes me wonder how low we'll actually go. GFS is really vigorous about pushing sub 32 dp into my area this evening. Given the moisture will be arriving should lock in the llc wouldn't be too shocked if this turns out to be a 33 and rain situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 .19 inches of rain yesterday and last night here in north Johnson City. Current temperature is 46 with light rain falling. Nice slug of moisture headed this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just do not fall a sleep while you are teaching I hate the red birds. But much respect about last nights game... Hoping this system speeds up about 3-6 hours and the system is pulling east by 8am for the high country. Already have light drizzle here in mby... Already drizzling outside here. Temp has fallen to the upper 40s. (Best World Series game ever last night! I can't believe I stayed up for the whole thing, but it was worth it!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Don't know why...but I feel like this thing will under perform on precip and CAD temps for MBY. Maybe I'm just being a pessimist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Don't know why...but I feel like this thing will under perform on precip and CAD temps for MBY. Maybe I'm just being a pessimist. Funny you mentioned that... I'm starting to think the same thing. The cold air just isn't getting the push I expected and things just keep lagging back. I was already expecting to see solid cloud cover over us and that's not the case at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The ground temp doesn't have that much of an impact if the snow is heavy and abundant enough. It was about 80F the day before it snowed half a foot or more in Denver, and parts of the TX Panhandle got a half foot with ground temps that were still relatively warm. If there's enough of it, it'll cool enough of the ground to support snow anyway. I don't find that to be the case at all. Once you get enough snow it'll cool the ground after a while. The biggest reason why snow doesn't stick around in lower latitudes even when it's chilly is due to the temps not being cold enough in the air and the angle of the sun. 32 degrees in the sun in GA in January is going to be much different than 32F in the sun in Iowa. We've had a few days where we'll get snow and it only sticks around in the shaded areas even if the temps are topping out in the upper 20s - and the reason is the sun angle. In fact, some shaded areas around here can keep snow for a week, and up in the mountains some spots can remain covered in snow for an entire season. Yet, I've been in the upper midwest and Oslo, NO in the dead of winter, and even when it was sunny and 35 what snow was around didn't melt very much. In fact, in Oslo, there are many days where it's about 32-35F in the day but with such a low sun angle not much melts, and what does always refreezes at night. For the love of G-D......READ MORE POST LESS :gun_bandana: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No matter what the sun angle is, if the ground temps are very warm it will melt more quickly. And by ground temps I and everyone else is referring to the temp of the soil at 2-4" soil depth. In your example above you stated air temps at 4-5 feet above the ground. What were the soil temps in your examples? The ground can't get warmer if the air is cooler. The ground over time, with more snow, will actually cool down - especially at the surface. The snow also acts as an insulator, as well. This is my point. I know this may be a crude experiment, but I if you take 6" of soil, warm it to a certain temp, and cover it a few inches of snow, that eventually those temps even at 2-4" will cool down and the snow will stop melting. Even if the snow doesn't come into direct contact, whatever melts is going to send very cold water down to that soil level. The deeper you go, the further the temp lags behind the surface. However, near the surface, the ground temps will nearly always be in phase with air temps unless there is ample snowcover to insulate the ground. With all due respect, you are from Georgia. You guys aren't exactly experts in snow. http://www.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/eng/ibp/irc/cbd/building-digest-180.html The temperature of the ground surface remains almost in phase with that of the air. Below the surface, however, the maximum or minimum occurs later than the corresponding values at the surface, the time lag increasing linearly with depth as shown by the cosine term in equation 2. Figure 2 illustrates this behaviour. At a depth of 5 to 6 m the maximum ground temperature occurs about 6 months later than the average maximum temperature of the surface in summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The ground can't get warmer if the air is cooler. The ground over time, with more snow, will actually cool down - especially at the surface. The snow also acts as an insulator, as well. This is my point. I know this may be a crude experiment, but I if you take 6" of soil, warm it to a certain temp, and cover it a few inches of snow, that eventually those temps even at 2-4" will cool down and the snow will stop melting. Even if the snow doesn't come into direct contact, whatever melts is going to send very cold water down to that soil level. The deeper you go, the further the temp lags behind the surface. However, near the surface, the ground temps will nearly always be in phase with air temps unless there is ample snowcover to insulate the ground. With all due respect, you are from Georgia. You guys aren't exactly experts in snow. http://www.nrc-cnrc....digest-180.html Do you see the RED TAG?!??! Wow...just when I thought you couldn't get any more stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Don't know why...but I feel like this thing will under perform on precip and CAD temps for MBY. Maybe I'm just being a pessimist. Who knows? I think its just a little slower probably. There is a very good NE flow here in NC temps continue to drop... my temp is down to 45 now here. The front looks like its in a W-E orientation across SC and getting caught up along the SC/GA line in north GA. Edit: DPs continue to fall here also. Do you see the RED TAG?!??! Wow...just when I thought you couldn't get any more stupid I smell a troll. 1.bmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Don't know why...but I feel like this thing will under perform on precip and CAD temps for MBY. Maybe I'm just being a pessimist. It's not underperforming here. We're already getting pouring rain and the temps are going to be dropping throughout the day. They actually finally put a chance of snow showers into our local forecast - although with no accumulations. My roses were blooming yesterday, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The ground can't get warmer if the air is cooler. The ground over time, with more snow, will actually cool down - especially at the surface. The snow also acts as an insulator, as well. This is my point. I know this may be a crude experiment, but I if you take 6" of soil, warm it to a certain temp, and cover it a few inches of snow, that eventually those temps even at 2-4" will cool down and the snow will stop melting. Even if the snow doesn't come into direct contact, whatever melts is going to send very cold water down to that soil level. The deeper you go, the further the temp lags behind the surface. However, near the surface, the ground temps will nearly always be in phase with air temps unless there is ample snowcover to insulate the ground. With all due respect, you are from Georgia. You guys aren't exactly experts in snow. http://www.nrc-cnrc....digest-180.html Really? I honestly can't believe you just that. Do you even think before you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Really? I honestly can't believe you just that. Do you even think before you post? he better think real hard now, he only has 5 per day now thanks for the reports folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 he better think real hard now, he only has 5 per day now thanks for the reports folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The ground can't get warmer if the air is cooler. The ground over time, with more snow, will actually cool down - especially at the surface. The snow also acts as an insulator, as well. This is my point. I know this may be a crude experiment, but I if you take 6" of soil, warm it to a certain temp, and cover it a few inches of snow, that eventually those temps even at 2-4" will cool down and the snow will stop melting. Even if the snow doesn't come into direct contact, whatever melts is going to send very cold water down to that soil level. The deeper you go, the further the temp lags behind the surface. However, near the surface, the ground temps will nearly always be in phase with air temps unless there is ample snowcover to insulate the ground. With all due respect, you are from Georgia. You guys aren't exactly experts in snow. http://www.nrc-cnrc....digest-180.html Wow there TN guy. While we might live in Georgia, that doesn't make us idiots or any less knowledgeable about snow. And actually I grew up in Nashville and went to school at UT Knoxville, so your assumption is already flawed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is this a flashback from Nov of 1950? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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