calculus1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's so tempting to do that. I could drive up to somewhere along I81 in Virginia, but something tells me this is only the beginning this winter. That something is called the calendar! Winter typically follows October and November each year. (Sorry, I couldn't resist!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think I remember that one here at KTRI too. The forecast was for a high of 43 and light rain, rain and they dynamics were so great that heavy rain very quickly changed to heavy snow and we ended up with b/w 28-36 inches here in the city (depending on where you were) An incredible storm and a COMPLETE bust by every forecaster (there were even busts within the bust - as snow was much heavier than anyone could have predicted) Quite possibly the most fun storm I have ever witnessed. I recall it vividly. I was in App state, and napped after class one afternoon...woke up at midnight and went outside to see the moon getting covered, and went to watch Intellicast radar on the dial up internet. I wasn't really paying attention to weather or any AFD's or models but for kicks looked at the NMC's difax charts and old ETA and AVN model which had the swirl in GA coming right toward us. A few hours later it began snowing really hard and didnt' stop for 36 consecutive hours. It really piled up and brought down a lot of trees. I watched the noon show in Charlotte and Al Conklin is the only one who said expect a major dump of snow, all others were going with a changeover to rain. The rain never came. The next storm , a few days later, everyone went with another major snowstorm, except Al Conklin who called for rain, and indeed, Winter storm watches were put out and everyone expected another major snow. It rained ...a lot. If I recall Cincinnati and Kentucky got hit with an extremely dangerous snowstorm from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well I think the surface front has come through. Winds picking up from the N/NW and feel a chill in the air. Looking at SPC Meso Analysis the wind stream lines front is stretching from east of South Hill Va to north of Charlotte. So let the chilly weather begin... I'm glad-- I actually broke a sweat today doing yard work. Edit. Front is visiable on RAH Radar. Just south of Oxford NC north of Durham just south of Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm debating heading up to the farm in Mt Airy predawn Saturday a.m. and making a run for the pkwy. I'll decide tommorrow night. Big Frosty I see you on here,what you think. I'm just hoping for a flake or two in the mix? But I would say shoot right up to Fancy Gap 15-20 minutes from Mt.Airy and you should see some snow. I think it's possible I might get a mix here in Surry County what you think about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thundersnow in Boston right now! Unreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm just hoping for a flake or two in the mix? But I would say shoot right up to Fancy Gap 15-20 minutes from Mt.Airy and you should see some snow. I think it's possible I might get a mix here in Surry County what you think about that? the one thing missing from this thats very important in the lower elevations is a low dewpoint. This is October , so the damming can only be so strong. The GFS has mid 30's dewpoints for many in Nw NC region at the surface. If precip comes down hard enough, then it could overcome it, but I'd think a mix or a few sleet pellets were possible but nothing major. But again, stranger things have happened in November. We had a pretty sizeable snowfall here around November 9 2001 I think, against all odds and forecasts....but I wouldn't bank on seeing much just yet til the GFS comes in pretty colder and drier. Mountains: different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Amazing how different the synoptic setup is going to be compared to what the GFS from this past weekend was honking and yet we are still going to get snow in the mid atlantic area. Sometimes you luck up as what the GFS was depicting about 4 days ago regarding the closed low and all is not going to happen yet the snow still looks like it will materialize. GFS from last weekend for around midnight Friday. Today's 18z GFS for around midnight Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the one thing missing from this thats very important in the lower elevations is a low dewpoint. This is October , so the damming can only be so strong. The GFS has mid 30's dewpoints for many in Nw NC region at the surface. If precip comes down hard enough, then it could overcome it, but I'd think a mix or a few sleet pellets were possible but nothing major. But again, stranger things have happened in November. We had a pretty sizeable snowfall here around November 9 2001 I think, against all odds and forecasts....but I wouldn't bank on seeing much just yet til the GFS comes in pretty colder and drier. Mountains: different story. I'm putting in the data now, So GFS should come in colder tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Friday night's damming just off the surface is classic. Hard to believe this is an October map. I wonder how low actual surface temps get around Winston, Hickory and Statesville where precip will be falling pretty hard and a strong northeast wind tomorrow night around midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Robert, You are right, the next system looked very similar as far as the evolution, except I don't believe it was as dynamic, at least as far as totals went. The placement was of course a little different, and there were other areas of TN that jackpotted with that one too, in addition to the areas you mentioned, I believe. Some parts of the plateau, i.e. Crossville and Cookeville got between 8 and 12 inches. I remember the trees along the interstate holding their weighted down look for several years following that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Amazing how different the synoptic setup is going to be compared to what the GFS from this past weekend was honking and yet we are still going to get snow in the mid atlantic area. Sometimes you luck up as what the GFS was depicting about 4 days ago regarding the closed low and all is not going to happen yet the snow still looks like it will materialize. GFS from last weekend for around midnight Friday. Today's 18z GFS for around midnight Friday I was looking at the older runs from it too. It lost the southern stream on a few runs and allow the northern stream to dominate, and that gave the Southeast NO precip at all on a few runs...I mentioned it in this thread somewhere. But as it turns out, the southern stream was so slow that it allowed the northern stream and dammng to take shape , which still allows the winter storm (sort of for some) to take shape....So, right , but for the wrong reasons. One other thing on GFS ..it lost this storm, only to bring it back and ended up following ECMWF....now this is a first for the season really. It will be interesting to see if the Euro re-gains its superiority in the Winter in most events. But I've definitely notice since after the Christmas storm, its been quite the opposite....ECMWF following GFS almost every meaningful event. Could be biases at play. Only time will tell. Eventually I will hop off the GFS train most likely and follow suit with the usual, but some intances is dangerous to do that, just got to know when the GFS is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the dynamics really get cranking once the trough goes negative tilt off Delmarva. Some area just west and extremely close to DC and northwest NJ are going to get a dynamic heavy Snowstorm, esp. in western MD and central/East PA hills. I'll be in Allentown, PA on Sunday, so will miss the event by a day. I expect snow on the ground though (4-6"+ is forcasted), and if I can get a pic or two, I'll post them for the snow lovers here. Not the same as having it in your own backyard, but a good sign that Ma Nature is laying down some snow close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This storm is a product of insane blocking in Canada. I'm not sure you can really call this a -NAO. More like a retrograded block over Canada. Don't look for Canadian snowcover to advance anytime soon. But, if this is a preview for winter we're in for a ride. when I was putting together my winter forecast, october 62 matched up real well w/ the current setup. This led to a very cold November in 62. Foothills you have any info if the southern mid-atlantic had snow in oct/nov 62? Outside of the mountains. Current Oct Oct 62 November 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This storm is a product of insane blocking in Canada. I'm not sure you can really call this a -NAO. More like a retrograded block over Canada. Don't look for Canadian snowcover to advance anytime soon. But, if this is a preview for winter we're in for a ride. when I was putting together my winter forecast, october 62 matched up real well w/ the current setup. This led to a very cold November in 62. Foothills you have any info if the southern mid-atlantic had snow in oct/nov 62? Outside of the mountains. Well your brother has all the good info on that if so I'd have to look, but off my head I don't recall anything, other than 60's were in general, very good for snow in NC (and probably most of SE) . If the blocking is coming we'd see it a mile away, so far its been a little peculiar in that we had a weak high develop in Eastern Canada and strong 50/50 low , which is basically a split flow , eastern Canada style. A little more rare than Pac. split flow, but both usually give eastern snow. Not usually in October though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'll be in Boone for it on saturday!! Where are you going to be tailgating at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 0z NAM is showing some cold 850's at 18z tomorrow across the NC mtns. And by 23z the cold is still locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Gravel lot across from Southern states... Come on by man and have a drink or 3... Where are you going to be tailgating at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 One more look from the NAM for Friday Evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 21 hrs on the NAM it's popping a slp on southern AL/GA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This could turn into an icy mess along the NC mtns according to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 One more look from the NAM for Friday Evening... I'm looking at it on SV and it doesn't quite look like that? I wonder what the discrepancy is? Its looking pretty similar to its previous run, the zero line runs along Watauga/Ashe border just below VA/NC border and holds there through 27 hours. Still a very close call. Just saw the 30 hour, and its very much like GFS now...a little warmer by 1 degree or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Regardless though, its splitting hairs at that elevation. In my view, extreme nw NC mountains likely Ashe and Watauga, and southwest VA border mountains are in for a snowstorm or atleast a mix. By 33 hours, the trough is beginning neg. tilt on all models, with crashing heights and incoming cold air. By then, over 1" of liquid qpf has fallen. If part or most of that is frozen in Ashe mountains, we're looking at an historic snowstorm. Hard to say exactly which counties it will be yet in sw VA or nw NC....but pretty sure, someone will. The cold air and upslope and wrap around comes in quick after midnight tomorrow night. Sort of wish I was a student back at App state again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Gravel lot across from Southern states... Come on by man and have a drink or 3... That's where I tailgate at man. I'm sure I've seen you at some point lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm looking at it on SV and it doesn't quite look like that? I wonder what the discrepancy is? Its looking pretty similar to its previous run, the zero line runs along Watauga/Ashe border just below VA/NC border and holds there through 27 hours. Still a very close call. Just saw the 30 hour, and its very much like GFS now...a little warmer by 1 degree or so. I don't know. I cancelled my SV subscription so I can't compare. Perhaps they are using higher resolution data in the maps they display. From their site: "What sets InstantWeatherMaps.com apart from other free sites, other than speed? For the GFS: Most free sites use 0.5-degree data for the short range (hours 0-192), and 2.5-degree data for the long range (hours 204-384). We use the same 0.5-degree data for the short range, but we use the higher-resolution 1.0-degree data for the long range (when referring to resolution, a lower number is better). In addition, some surface maps, including snow depth, among others, use the full native 0.205-degree data for the short range, and 0.625-degree data for the long range. The higher-resolution maps also generate much faster than the others because the files are available sooner from our data source. For the NAM: We use 12-km data as opposed to the 20-km or even 32-km data used by some other sites. We offer the full hourly NAM through hour 36, whereas other sites offer only the forecast hours divisible by 3." http://www.instantweathermaps.com/faq.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Oh man do I wish I could be on top of Beech Mtn tomorrow/tomorrow night.:snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't know. I cancelled my SV subscription so I can't compare. Perhaps they are using higher resolution data in the maps they display. From their site: "What sets InstantWeatherMaps.com apart from other free sites, other than speed? For the GFS: Most free sites use 0.5-degree data for the short range (hours 0-192), and 2.5-degree data for the long range (hours 204-384). We use the same 0.5-degree data for the short range, but we use the higher-resolution 1.0-degree data for the long range (when referring to resolution, a lower number is better). In addition, some surface maps, including snow depth, among others, use the full native 0.205-degree data for the short range, and 0.625-degree data for the long range. The higher-resolution maps also generate much faster than the others because the files are available sooner from our data source. For the NAM: We use 12-km data as opposed to the 20-km or even 32-km data used by some other sites. We offer the full hourly NAM through hour 36, whereas other sites offer only the forecast hours divisible by 3." http://www.instantwe...aps.com/faq.php thanks for that. I had no idea, but that could explain it re: NAM I know it and the GFS appeared to have reversed roles over the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nice. We try to get back on the last row at the end. Better for corn hole. Look for a black ford freestyle man. Come on over at some point.. That's where I tailgate at man. I'm sure I've seen you at some point lol. The instant weather maps site is really nice. Very user friendly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well the NAM cleared up nothing, other than the fact on the free site it shows it colder. All things considered, if your hunting a snowstorm NW NC and western VA is the place to look tomorrow night and early Saturday. By Sat. morning, cold air advection and upslope will be in full swing in the usual upslope country of ne TN and west NC....that alone is going to be decent...but somewhere between nw NC and the Shenandoah Valley is probably going to get an unprecedented October snowstorm. A foot in some places? Possible. But the warm ground this time of year is going to melt it rapidly...still, the quick falling nature of the sudden heavy snow could be a disaster for some trees still holding leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well the NAM cleared up nothing, other than the fact on the free site it shows it colder. All things considered, if your hunting a snowstorm NW NC and western VA is the place to look tomorrow night and early Saturday. By Sat. morning, cold air advection and upslope will be in full swing in the usual upslope country of ne TN and west NC....that alone is going to be decent...but somewhere between nw NC and the Shenandoah Valley is probably going to get an unprecedented October snowstorm. A foot in some places? Possible. But the warm ground this time of year is going to melt it rapidly...still, the quick falling nature of the sudden heavy snow could be a disaster for some trees still holding leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 haha too bad we can't go by surface graphics too often. We'd be knee deep in it several times per year! I still do like western VA for the good stuff for sure. And eventually, several inches in nw NC on the wrap around. I'll wait til 00z GFS before the big synoptic event which is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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