DCMetroWinston Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Oh boy, to think I may be pulling an all-night snow vigil in October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Oh boy, to think I may be pulling an all-night snow vigil in October! Look at it as "getting in shape" or "training" for the upcoming winter. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That's it, we're in training mode right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Oh boy, to think I may be pulling an all-night snow vigil in October! If it does will be the 2nd time Ive seen something frozen fall out of the sky in Oct since I moved here in 97. Look at is "getting in shape" or "training" for the upcoming winter. LOL Thats it.... Better start weight training for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm drinking my Muscle Milk and Pepsi Max in preparation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm drinking my Muscle Milk and Pepsi Max in preparation! I'll have my Bloody Mary when I get home! Don't want anything to heavy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That's it, we're in training mode right now! Yep, basically anything prior to Dec 1st in the SE is a warmup. Fast forward a couple months and this would have a been a nice SN from the upstate of SC to Richmond, however, it is still Oct meaning DC is fretting over profiles while we are solidly in the RN category. Still thinking areas along the VA border could see a few tokens before sunup Sat, doubt they will be dendrites though if it does happen since the atmos will be drying bottom down, maybe some plates... Regardless, always a treat to see that first one of the year. Earliest I can remember here is Nov 17th, so got a couple weeks to go ;-). 12z EC @ 192 is interesting, hard to not look at that and have an idea what the next panel shows. Heading into an active somewhat amplified pattern over the next ten days, where most should see their growing season end. After that, looks to breakdown, maybe a couple lakes cutters for the middle of Nov, maybe some late season Svr too... --- Sent from my iPad2 Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I cannot believe this, but I was right all along for snow from near the tri cities in TN to Boone, NC and northeastward - EXCEPT now it looks possible that a heavier band of snow may go further south than I anticipated and head towards somewhere in the mid Atlantic to coastal new england: I called this several days ago and backed off of it - why I don't know. Nice to know a blind squirrel like me can find a nut! EDIT; i just looked at the reports of snow out of the panhandle of TX. Some parts got up to 5". It seems that we're seeing a pattern this week for early season accumulating snow in some locations - so good luck for those who might get it soon. I fear in Knoxville, we'll be shafted again - but our turn may come around sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I cannot believe this, but I was right all along for snow from near the tri cities in TN to Boone, NC and northeastward - EXCEPT now it looks possible that a heavier band of snow may go further south than I anticipated and head towards somewhere in the mid Atlantic to coastal new england: lmao - it hasnt happened yet so you cant have been right all along (just like you cant have a bust before the storm is supposed to have started as some on here are prone to do). it has to verify first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 lmao - it hasnt happened yet so you cant have been right all along (just like you cant have a bust before the storm is supposed to have started as some on here are prone to do). it has to verify first Yeah, but it's a confidence booster isn't it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Thanks Moto, I just did. Looks like its a smidge difference in that site and plymouth. They have 30 isotherm at 36 hours from gFS but the plymouth site has +2. Either way, close call. I just read some AFD's and Blacksburg is going with 1" to 3" for Sparta NC but around 1" for Boone....not sure if I buy that. But the wedge will be more pronounced just around nw NC and esp. in southwest VA. The damming signal on this is really good, and the timing of moisture is excellent, mostly after dark tomorrow when the best lift and forcing gets going. The various factors for NC and VA are tough to nail down, it would be nice if it was a little colder , to make the profiles fully snow, for around Boone, but can't say that, and esp. using the GFS you can't just yet. Its a little warmer than NAM. So its tough to say , but a few things , like all storms, makes this interesting: Good lift and a strongly negative tilting system with time, crashing heights and inverted trough, good high placement. Eventually, I have zero doubt, that a period of decent snow will make it to NC mountains around Watauga, Avery, Mitchell, Ashe and Yancey..the question is at what point of the main moisture? Will it be after dark Friday or closer to morning on Saturday? Dynamic cooling is one main thing this system has but it occurs right at a time when the 850 low is beginning to develop literally right over northwest NC, so warming aloft and various terrain makes it hard to say all snow (or all rain) in any one spot. I would think southwest VA is looking good for a period of moderate to heavy snow tomorrow night, and eventually nw NC mountains. Around that area, mixed with sleet and ZR, but esp. sleet for some areas probably east of Boone and the southwest mtns of VA, before you get into totally snow. Fun system. I'd also hate to be forecasting for DC region. Look how cold it gets there during the day Saturday, with pouring rain, snow or mix. Mid 30's. Obviously just west of the city and in the Maryland highlands, all snow..and LOTS of it if the GFS is right on storm and moisture placement. Feels strange to be having this discussion in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NWS Blacksburg is giving me 1inch of snow in Wilkes County. Which is east of the mountains. http://classic.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=28659&wuSelect=WEATHER I'm confused. What do you guys think about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NWS Blacksburg is giving me 1inch of snow in Wilkes County. Which is east of the mountains. I'm confused. What do you guys think about that? Unsure, but the MA forum is in full meltdown! To quote the HPC from last winter... All the guidance appears to be suffering from feedback... Take your 1" and run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If last night RAH was seriously considering possibility of snow for Winston-Salem, I wonder what they think now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Unsure, but the MA forum is in full meltdown! To quote the HPC from last winter... All the guidance appears to be suffering from feedback... Take your 1" and run... I'm having trouble finding ANY storms around Halloween (or this early) that gave that much snow for the mid Atlantic through the NE. If this happens, it seems to be pretty darned unprecedented. That looks more like a early-mid December winter storm. This is similar to the Halloween 1993 storm though, but I don't think it put out as much snow, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 In a year of an earthquakes, deadly tornadoes, 1,000 year floods, record prolonged La Nina cold, heinous heatwaves, and feisty hurricanes/tropical storms, an October snowstorm seems mundane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow if 18z nam is correct that would be a fairly epic snowstorm for over half of VA for this time of year. Damn it I wanna go snow chasing. Anyway first sign of the front is approaching from the NW in Danville. Skys are black with a line of showers heading this way currently 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You know if it snows in central and southside VA, Roxboro is likely to see something too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You know if it snows in central and southside VA, Roxboro is likely to see something too! I agree most of the times. But I do remember 1 storm though... We had tons of rain... while Danville roughly 25 miles to the NW had a foot of snow on the ground from the same storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow if 18z nam is correct that would be a fairly epic snowstorm for over half of VA for this time of year. Damn it I wanna go snow chasing. Anyway first sign of the front is approaching from the NW in Danville. Skys are black with a line of showers heading this way currently 72 It's so tempting to do that. I could drive up to somewhere along I81 in Virginia, but something tells me this is only the beginning this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You know if it snows in central and southside VA, Roxboro is likely to see something too! Not quite. There is going to be a strong 850 tight gradient, as evidenced by the GFS and NAM 850 low developing on the mid level warm nose. This will place areas to the northwest of its track in the heavy snow aloft sector, and areas directly under it and immediate adjoining area of its track in the mix and mostly rain zone. The one caveat is the possibility of an enhanced barrier jet that forms as the 850 is forming right around Winston-Salem and northwest NC and south Central/Southwest VA....where cold dry air is actually pulled into the surface from northeast geostrophic flow. IE, sleet mixing in could be a big problem somewhere in that zone. For folks in southwest and central to western VA, WOW!!! what a snowfall in October! This is going to be a test for the season, regarding the NAM and GFS ability, so I'm paying extreme close attention to which model handles things better. GFS is slightly warmer, NAM colder with less packing, but both are in the ballpark, but northwest NC mtns may just miss out on a rare large October snowstorm to the mountains of southern West Va and southwest VA. Not to mention what happens when the dynamics really get cranking once the trough goes negative tilt off Delmarva. Some area just west and extremely close to DC and northwest NJ are going to get a dynamic heavy Snowstorm, esp. in western MD and central/East PA hills. Also , I"m more impressed with the wrap-around coming into the mtns of NC / TN Saturday afternoon with more snow and winds. If we get this setup in the Winter, then it would be ICE storm city for northeast GA, western SC and central western NC, would be a devastating Ice storm (considering perfect placement of the high and strengthening setup, perfect overrunning zone and maximum lift over the cold dome). This is an almost unreal setup for October. :snowman::snowman: Meanwhile, I'm hoping for 1" of solid rain here. Its been a great Summer and Fall so far. The leaves are spectacular, and our first hard frost, scrapeable windshield ice is coming Sunday morning. This is the pattern I could see happening in Dec/Jan....already, lots of damming events, and the best one's yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm debating heading up to the farm in Mt Airy predawn Saturday a.m. and making a run for the pkwy. I'll decide tommorrow night. Big Frosty I see you on here,what you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm debating heading up to the farm in Mt Airy predawn Saturday a.m. and making a run for the pkwy. I'll decide tommorrow night. Big Frosty I see you on here,what you think. I'd go to southwest VA if I had to make definite plans right now. That could change a little though, but as for now, Mt. Rogers or southern WVa or Shenandoah Valley, the Blue Ridge Parkway (unless they close it there ahead of time). I really like southwest VA highlands. And again western MD but obviously too far to drive. If the GFS were just a fraction further south, then Boone would be a good spot but I'm antsy there right now since during the heart of the main precip its too close to call and that 850 low is right over head. When its this close, you have to wait until the absolute last minute to really know. And this is October after all, so all bets really are still off and this is nearly un-precedented. I'm glad I don't even have to decide whether or not to travel and where to. I'm staying home in the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not quite. There is going to be a strong 850 tight gradient, as evidenced by the GFS and NAM 850 low developing on the mid level warm nose. This will place areas to the northwest of its track in the heavy snow aloft sector, and areas directly under it and immediate adjoining area of its track in the mix and mostly rain zone. The one caveat is the possibility of an enhanced barrier jet that forms as the 850 is forming right around Winston-Salem and northwest NC and south Central/Southwest VA....where cold dry air is actually pulled into the surface from northeast geostrophic flow. IE, sleet mixing in could be a big problem somewhere in that zone. For folks in southwest and central to western VA, WOW!!! what a snowfall in October! This is going to be a test for the season, regarding the NAM and GFS ability, so I'm paying extreme close attention to which model handles things better. GFS is slightly warmer, NAM colder with less packing, but both are in the ballpark, but northwest NC mtns may just miss out on a rare large October snowstorm to the mountains of southern West Va and southwest VA. Not to mention what happens when the dynamics really get cranking once the trough goes negative tilt off Delmarva. Some area just west and extremely close to DC and northwest NJ are going to get a dynamic heavy Snowstorm, esp. in western MD and central/East PA hills. Also , I"m more impressed with the wrap-around coming into the mtns of NC / TN Saturday afternoon with more snow and winds. If we get this setup in the Winter, then it would be ICE storm city for northeast GA, western SC and central western NC, would be a devastating Ice storm (considering perfect placement of the high and strengthening setup, perfect overrunning zone and maximum lift over the cold dome). This is an almost unreal setup for October. :snowman::snowman: Meanwhile, I'm hoping for 1" of solid rain here. Its been a great Summer and Fall so far. The leaves are spectacular, and our first hard frost, scrapeable windshield ice is coming Sunday morning. This is the pattern I could see happening in Dec/Jan....already, lots of damming events, and the best one's yet to come. If this verifies, could this have portend at all any recurrent patterns for the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If this verifies, could this have portend at all any recurrent patterns for the winter? well it does seem to be fitting the current and recent pattern of deep eastern or Ohio Valley cutoffs and deep troughs this Season. Its still early yet. The last 2 Winters, the actual heart of Winter for the midwest and eastern (and southern) states seemed to begin right around Thanksgiving, so we're talking 4 weeks later. There's no guarantees we'll ever "lock" into a pattern for 8 straight weeks like we practically did the last 2 years, but my forecast leaned pretty hard that way. I am no long range guy so I really have no idea , only some educated guesses like everybody else. But I think we'll end up repeating this pattern again and again and again, like I mentioned a couple weeks ago before outlooks were issued. I am very sold on the next 25 to 30 years for us though, but of course there will be years with spikes of extreme warmth too, and there's hardly any predicting on when those would be. If I had anything to venture for most of the Southeast as far as Winter weather was concerned, I'd venture our biggest individual snowstorms mostly would come during a weak NINO , so that year is coming soon, but obviously we can do ok with a Nina too, like last year. The long term trend of Neg NAO cycle can't really be denied and when we combine that with a couple other interesting factors, I could see us having a period like the 1960s and 1970s again, and the late 1800's. Its happened countless times in the centuries past, we just weren't here to be witness to it. So I think the average citizen today , even the educated and weather-enthused ones, are kind of surprised when any part of the Southeast gets a snowstorm, or 3, like we've done a lot the last few years. Its only uncommon in the short term. 30 year averages are just that, averages , over the short haul. I don't know if a Feb-Mar 1960 is waiting in the wings again, but history does tend to repeat itself. I think odds are good some of us would witness it again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not too optimistic of my chances here in Boone, but things can always change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'll be in Boone for it on saturday!! I'd go to southwest VA if I had to make definite plans right now. That could change a little though, but as for now, Mt. Rogers or southern WVa or Shenandoah Valley, the Blue Ridge Parkway (unless they close it there ahead of time). I really like southwest VA highlands. And again western MD but obviously too far to drive. If the GFS were just a fraction further south, then Boone would be a good spot but I'm antsy there right now since during the heart of the main precip its too close to call and that 850 low is right over head. When its this close, you have to wait until the absolute last minute to really know. And this is October after all, so all bets really are still off and this is nearly un-precedented. I'm glad I don't even have to decide whether or not to travel and where to. I'm staying home in the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z Canadian RGEM - this is about as far south as the snow gets on the loop - good thump of snow in western VA and eastern WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'll be in Boone for it on saturday!! Well you're guaranteed "some" snow from wraparound, I have zero doubt of that. The question of the night is how much? They're literally on the line...on the one hand, come tomorrow night, elevation usually helps out a lot, on the other hand, dynamics get going immediately east of there and with an 850 low probably directly overhead, it would bring a mix, not pure snow or pure rain. Each mile northeast of Boone looks like it makes a lot of difference in this particular situation. Lets see what the GFS brings tonight. NAM is pretty snowy or sleety, but GFS usually is more accurate. Southwest VA is looking extremely good. One other thing, dynamics really play a massive role...any heavy precip could easily switch a spot on the border right over , back and forth between types. I defnitely recall January 1998 living there and a forecast of rain....It began snowing hard and never stopped for 36 straight hours, had around 30" on the ground. Obviously not going to happen this time, but I've seen enormous busts in the very short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well you're guaranteed "some" snow from wraparound, I have zero doubt of that. The question of the night is how much? They're literally on the line...on the one hand, come tomorrow night, elevation usually helps out a lot, on the other hand, dynamics get going immediately east of there and with an 850 low probably directly overhead, it would bring a mix, not pure snow or pure rain. Each mile northeast of Boone looks like it makes a lot of difference in this particular situation. Lets see what the GFS brings tonight. NAM is pretty snowy or sleety, but GFS usually is more accurate. Southwest VA is looking extremely good. One other thing, dynamics really play a massive role...any heavy precip could easily switch a spot on the border right over , back and forth between types. I defnitely recall January 1998 living there and a forecast of rain....It began snowing hard and never stopped for 36 straight hours, had around 30" on the ground. Obviously not going to happen this time, but I've seen enormous busts in the very short term. I think I remember that one here at KTRI too. The forecast was for a high of 43 and light rain, rain and they dynamics were so great that heavy rain very quickly changed to heavy snow and we ended up with b/w 28-36 inches here in the city (depending on where you were) An incredible storm and a COMPLETE bust by every forecaster (there were even busts within the bust - as snow was much heavier than anyone could have predicted) Quite possibly the most fun storm I have ever witnessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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