FLweather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Did the guidance lose this in the 3-7 day, only to bring it back in a less extreme form in the short term? Certainly true last year, and looking at the 12z GFS ens members, maybe another case study. Pattern setting up for 3 low quality MA/NE cyclones over the next 7 days, minimal impacts south of the NC/VA boarder, maybe some deform type precip rates through central NC heading into Friday, to early to say. Still waiting for the end of the growing season, should be around the 31st with a sd of 7 days. I wasn't around last winter. But would you mind to explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Posting from my droid but from what I could see the 18zgfs looks colder than 12z. Hmmmm..... Gonna be chilly on friday and wet or maybe white if your high enough up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yep, Capital Weather Gang is honking about snow possibilities this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 So, RAH has been probing to see if the Triad will get some snow this weekend: WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 37 TOWARD KINT BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...WET BULB ZERO VALUES REMAIN 35F OR BETTER AND BUFR SOUNDINGS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER TO BE 3K TO 4K FEET THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...CERTAINLY DEEP ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 So, RAH has been probing to see if the Triad will get some snow this weekend: WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 37 TOWARD KINT BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...WET BULB ZERO VALUES REMAIN 35F OR BETTER AND BUFR SOUNDINGS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER TO BE 3K TO 4K FEET THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...CERTAINLY DEEP ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. It would be interesting to see what temperature that warm nose has been averaging compare to the rest of the atmosphere. If its not a significant warm nose its a darn shame the precip couldn't come down hard enough to cool that layer to allow atleast some flakes to mix in. Lol I would take the rainstorm with pride just to see a few flakes at the end. Anyway NAM coming in a little bit wetter.... 700rh looks better organized and more widespread compare to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NWS Blacksburg "Looks like the models have some snow accumulations in the high elevations along the Blue Ridge Friday afternoon into Friday night (both the NAM and the GFS). We're thinking that some wet snow will fall in those higher elevations, but ground temps are warm enough that it will be hard to stick. Maybe some accumulation above 3500 feet. One thing that would help some is if the precip is heavier than the the GFS and NAM currently show." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It appears North Texas is in for some snow. Perhaps a few inches too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It appears North Texas is in for some snow.<img src="http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/default/Snowman.gif" />Perhaps a few inches too. Looking that way right now as parts of eastern NM, extreme Western OK and Northern TX are getting some snow down that way. Unbelievable. It's now beginning to look like Piedmont locations in NC could hit the low 30s with a possible freeze for the weekend and highs on Friday now predicted to be in the low-mid 50s. Going to be an interesting weekend to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Man, I love this time of year! So fun to get those cold-season forecast juices flowing!!! Boy it is going to feel chilly tomorrow....many spots 25-30 degrees colder than highs today. The NAM continues to show cold thicknesses and temps aloft tomorrow and tomorrow night...right on down into the northern foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Stayed in the upper 30's this morning with the low dipping down to 37.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 sitting right at 45 this morning.. Will be heading to Boone on Saturday. Hoping to see some snow and hoping that any rain is light and moves out quickly.. Real quick Got a ton of corn hole to be played Man, I love this time of year! So fun to get those cold-season forecast juices flowing!!! Boy it is going to feel chilly tomorrow....many spots 25-30 degrees colder than highs today. The NAM continues to show cold thicknesses and temps aloft tomorrow and tomorrow night...right on down into the northern foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Man, I love this time of year! So fun to get those cold-season forecast juices flowing!!! Boy it is going to feel chilly tomorrow....many spots 25-30 degrees colder than highs today. The NAM continues to show cold thicknesses and temps aloft tomorrow and tomorrow night...right on down into the northern foothills. Folks are definitely going to notice the drastic changes between today and Friday. Some areas will have highs tomorrow afternoon 25 to 30 degrees lower from today as you mentioned. Cold rain turns to snow in nw mountains of NC and sw VA as well. Not sure how much yet though. Also, I think my area gets its first frost on the ground Sunday morning, with widespread frost in VA and Carolinas Sunday morning. The high will be in southern VA by Sunday morning and with all the moisture on the ground, the dew will easily freeze, I could easily see some black ice on some rural roads Sunday morning as well. http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yep, I'm looking forward to it. Fireplace will be cranking all weekend. Going to be nasty for high school football tomorrow evening. Folks are definitely going to notice the drastic changes between today and Friday. Some areas will have highs tomorrow afternoon 25 to 30 degrees lower from today as you mentioned. Cold rain turns to snow in nw mountains of NC and sw VA as well. Not sure how much yet though. Also, I think my area gets its first frost on the ground Sunday morning, with widespread frost in VA and Carolinas Sunday morning. The high will be in southern VA by Sunday morning and with all the moisture on the ground, the dew will easily freeze, I could easily see some black ice on some rural roads Sunday morning as well. http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looks like the 0z and 6z models are holding serve for our colder and dreary weather on Friday/Friday night. Looking forward to it. As previously mentioned and as Foothills painted on his map, looks like NC high country is going to see some white stuff. I'm not 100% sure about Boone yet but I feel good about the usual hot spots above 4,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 been busy and missed a few days, returned this morning to see a nice wedge, cold air and rain for tomorrow. bring it on! will be interesting to see if the mtns get any snow. i cant believe we are finally getting to 'that' time of the year lol after highs in the 70s today its going to feel COLD tomorrow BRRRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 been busy and missed a few days, returned this morning to see a nice wedge, cold air and rain for tomorrow. bring it on! will be interesting to see if the mtns get any snow. i cant believe we are finally getting to 'that' time of the year lol after highs in the 70s today its going to feel COLD tomorrow BRRRRR Once again you're in the catbird seat Be sure to send some of that drizzle on down the pike to your needy friends. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yep, me too, looking forward to cold and drizzly for a day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looks like the 0z and 6z models are holding serve for our colder and dreary weather on Friday/Friday night. Looking forward to it. As previously mentioned and as Foothills painted on his map, looks like NC high country is going to see some white stuff. I'm not 100% sure about Boone yet but I feel good about the usual hot spots above 4,000 feet. I don't really like the NAM but its coming in looking similar to GFS lately. If the boundary is stretched east to west like that, and more importantly the actual deep-enough cold gets down into NC, then the mountains around Boone and certainly just above Boone elevation are looking at a decent snow event starting tomorrow afternoon. The High is about perfect, and gains strength thanks to excellent upper convergence in the perfect spot. The conveyor belt overrunning is about perfect as well, but so far thats only on a model and could waffle more south or more north. But its looking more and more like a decent snow and sleet event is coming to part of the mountains of NC and Virginia. For the rest of us, get ready for a strong CAD event...temperatures in the usual locations in northern GA throughout the Carolinas, will severely bust the currently forecasted highs, as usual. How many events will that make this October?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 temperatures in the usual locations in northern GA throughout the Carolinas, will severely bust the currently forecasted highs, as usual. How many events will that make this October?? I wonder how much a bust this will be. Ive noticed local NWS have dropped there forecast temps... which may actually be too warm. Blacksburg has dropped Danvilles low tomorrow night to 35 with rain. If the temps come in lower would you think it would be possible for light ice accumlations from Roxboro/Danville west or a brief shot at some snow? And blacksburg even mention the possibility of R/S mix south side Va for Saturday morning. This is from their overnight AFD. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT ANDSOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER...AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL MAINLY AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SNOW FLAKES BECAME MIXED IN FOR A FEW AREAS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM is dropping temps into mid 40s even low 40s here by late afternoon, into mid and upper 30s in northern mountains around Boone. Definite strong damming event, and usually NAM doesnt' show it too well, like the GFS has done lately. We'll see how the GFS run comes in today. Bottom line is , if you're under steady rain, your temps are going to be toward the bottom of guidance and even below it. I'm not sure why the TV stations around the Upstate to Charlotte and Asheville market always go so high on their temps in an obvious damming situation, year after year after year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Amarillo just got over 2 inches of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM is dropping temps into mid 40s even low 40s here by late afternoon, into mid and upper 30s in northern mountains around Boone. Definite strong damming event, and usually NAM doesnt' show it too well, like the GFS has done lately. We'll see how the GFS run comes in today. Bottom line is , if you're under steady rain, your temps are going to be toward the bottom of guidance and even below it. I'm not sure why the TV stations around the Upstate to Charlotte and Asheville market always go so high on their temps in an obvious damming situation, year after year after year. Why do you think it is that Cad is so under considered after years and years of statistics. And why can't the models be configured to recognize and predict cad extremes better? Is it just they don't accurately factor in geographic features? For me, in years gone by, when they said Athens would be generally cloudy, and cooler, with occasional drizzle, then I knew I'd be socked in solid, and cold, and wet T Edit: Oh, yeah, I saw your comment about wanting warming episodes in late Feb. Couple that with your stated desire for more rain, less snow personally, I think I recognize old age setting in, lol. Your bones are losing their toughness Come on, Robert, young up! We count on you, and expect you to have a dog in the hunt, lol. Winter 'til May...it'll grow on you if you repeat it while meditating! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM is dropping temps into mid 40s even low 40s here by late afternoon, into mid and upper 30s in northern mountains around Boone. Definite strong damming event, and usually NAM doesnt' show it too well, like the GFS has done lately. We'll see how the GFS run comes in today. Bottom line is , if you're under steady rain, your temps are going to be toward the bottom of guidance and even below it. I'm not sure why the TV stations around the Upstate to Charlotte and Asheville market always go so high on their temps in an obvious damming situation, year after year after year. How you ever viewed the maps over at instantweathermaps.com? If their maps are correct, it shows 30s nosing into N GA by Friday Evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 FWIW.... This is the first time Ive seen this. But wunderground precip type map for GFS shows Freezing Rain potential in Extreme NE GA/SW NC come Saturday morning. 2 M temps are showing close to/slightly below freezing towards Blairsville, GA-Blue Ridge, GA and around Murphy and Andrews NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 How you ever viewed the maps over at instantweathermaps.com? If their maps are correct, it shows 30s nosing into N GA by Friday Evening. sweet!! bring it on, lets hope this year we get some 'real' cad events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Love the tightly cut off clouds in SE Georgia and Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Damn, don't see this too often in late Oct on a <60hr GFS panel, maybe some token flakes in the pre-dawn hours Saturday along the VA boarder counties from about Roxboro back towards Mt. Airy... MA sub should be interesting come tomorrow, DC 4-6"? Blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes... gfs sniffs it out in long range, euro dials it in, in median range while the gfs loses it only to find it back in short range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Going to be interesting to see what happens in the Texas panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Damn, don't see this too often in late Oct on a <60hr GFS panel, maybe some token flakes in the pre-dawn hours Saturday along the VA boarder counties from about Roxboro back towards Mt. Airy... MA sub should be interesting come tomorrow, DC 4-6"? If it does it will be as the precip starts pulling out and temps start crashing above. I may pull an all nighter tomorrow for the hell of it. It would be even better if the models dont really have the first clue and temps aloft start crashing halfway through the deformation band and actually get some slush to stick. Honestly not much support for the idea. Have to take it with a grain of salt on the euro snowfall map but maybe even some token flakes down to the NW side of hickory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 My thoughts on this weekend weather system for the NC foothills: http://northcarolinafoothillsweather.blogspot.com/2011/10/wild-weather-coming-friday-weekend.html High School football should be fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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