FallsLake Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The weekend's looking chillier than I thought. Highs may only range from the mid 50s to around 60 with lows reaching mid 30s for some locations outside the Apps. We then seem to warm back up somewhat for a little while before another cold shot moves in sometime around the Day 10 time frame per 0z GFS/Euro. Now if we can just get that kind of pattern going for the upcoming winter but longer-lasting... I'm hopeing to get the "monkey off our backs" and get our first freeze this weekend. From RAH long range: ......MUCH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WOULD FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES SAT...TO LOWER 60S MON...AND LOWS WELL INTO THE 30S...AND POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK SUN AND ESPECIALLY MON MORNING.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Temp dipped to 34 this morning with frost on the clear areas such as grass and rooftops. Looking forward to below average temps and dreary weather Friday. This sunshine is boring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The weekend's looking chillier than I thought. Highs may only range from the mid 50s to around 60 with lows reaching mid 30s for some locations outside the Apps. We then seem to warm back up somewhat for a little while before another cold shot moves in sometime around the Day 10 time frame per 0z GFS/Euro. Now if we can just get that kind of pattern going for the upcoming winter but longer-lasting... Not sure what models he uses.... but Greg Fishel on wral said yesterday afternoon that there are indications that Friday will probably not get out of the 40s. Probably dependant on weather or not we get rain. I know the NWS has a chance of rain here Friday night with lows in the upper 30s. If only it wasn't so early in the year and temps aloft were colder then I could see the first flakes of the year. Looks like I might actually hit Freezing mark Sat/Sun nights. NWS has 34 for both nights but the way they have been a little warmer in CAA situations I would expect slightly colder. The upper 20s sound nice but doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Temp dipped to 34 this morning with frost on the clear areas such as grass and rooftops. Looking forward to below average temps and dreary weather Friday. This sunshine is boring! Yeah, Forecasts all across the area busted too high this morning. Down to 35.2 here . Forecasted low was 42. An inversion was present up here as it was much warmer @ higher eles. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah, Forecasts all across the area busted too high this morning. Down to 35.2 here . Forecasted low was 42. An inversion was present up here as it was much warmer @ higher eles. . We saw a temp inversion around 9 degrees this morning when comparing my Cullowhee station (2078') to my Highlands station (4035'). Mid 30's - low 40's as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 <b></b>Not sure what models he uses.... but Greg Fishel on wral said yesterday afternoon that there are indications that Friday will probably not get out of the 40s. Probably dependant on weather or not we get rain. I know the NWS has a chance of rain here Friday night with lows in the upper 30s. If only it wasn't so early in the year and temps aloft were colder then I could see the first flakes of the year.<b></b><b></b><b></b>Looks like I might actually hit Freezing mark Sat/Sun nights. NWS has 34 for both nights but the way they have been a little warmer in CAA situations I would expect slightly colder. The upper 20s sound nice but doubt it.<b></b>Interesting. I know that areas across the mountains such as Boone will be in the 40s for highs with lows from the upper 20s-lower 30s. Then again, we are dealing with a pretty decent shortwave trough that's expected to set up so Fishel's thoughts wouldn't be all that farfetched especially if the arriving chilly airmass turned out to be a bit stronger than progged. We'll see. I may actually get to see my first frost if the scenario plays out correctly should lows around here turn out to be a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Not sure what models he uses.... but Greg Fishel on wral said yesterday afternoon that there are indications that Friday will probably not get out of the 40s. Probably dependant on weather or not we get rain. I know the NWS has a chance of rain here Friday night with lows in the upper 30s. If only it wasn't so early in the year and temps aloft were colder then I could see the first flakes of the year. Looks like I might actually hit Freezing mark Sat/Sun nights. NWS has 34 for both nights but the way they have been a little warmer in CAA situations I would expect slightly colder. The upper 20s sound nice but doubt it. Last 3 runs of the GFS has CAD here on Friday with clouds and drizzle. It's not super strong CAD but the source of the air mass is pretty cold so it's doesn't have to be that strong. GFS has my temps here in Dahlonega falling into the 40s during the day on Friday so we shall see if this holds with future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Interesting. I know that areas across the mountains such as Boone will be in the 40s for highs with lows from the upper 20s-lower 30s. Then again, we are dealing with a pretty decent shortwave trough that's expected to set up so Fishel's thoughts wouldn't be all that farfetched especially if the arriving chilly airmass turned out to be a bit stronger than progged. We'll see. I may actually get to see my first frost if the scenario plays out correctly should lows around here turn out to be a bit colder. Indeed. I wonder if higher elevations will get snow this time around. It does look like interior new england will get some good snow out of this though - so I was halfway right with my prediction a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 love these type of forecast maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 0Z Goofy finally coming around on the idea of cold rain this weekend. Sure would be nice to be in Denver right about now. Overnight: Snow. Low around 29. North northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow. High near 32. North northeast wind between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. North northwest wind around 7 mph becoming southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 35.6 this morning with my higher stations reading 44. Station elevation diff is around 2100'. Can't wait for Friday. Love to see temps in the low 50's with cloudy skies overhead and that cool, moist breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Looking ahead toward Halloween/November 1, you'll notice a BIG difference between the Euro and the GFS... The GFS has the southeast COMPLETELY dry! This is due to it having the quasi cut-off low up around the Great Lakes opposed to the Tennessee River Valley, Euro's placement. The Euro also pulls up a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico out ahead of the system and rains it out over SE AL/SW GA, where they could certainly use the rain... but I doubt that's what will happen. The amount of moisture in the Gulf shown by the Euro seems unreasonable as I don't expect THAT much moisture available for the low to work with. Also, I've noticed over the past month that things have been a little too far south initially on the models so I'd put the quasi cut-off low somewhere along the Indiana/Kentucky/Ohio border and through PA. I'm putting more weight on the GFS for now... Still... It will be something to keep an eye on! With the GFS here: http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M The Euro is attached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The NAM is really chilly across most of NC/SC on Friday. It shows temperatures hanging in the 40's most of the day throughout a good chunk of both carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I'm having a really hard time getting excited by the cold air coming in this weekend. The last front we had dropped snow in the mountains and I even got sub zero 850's in Marietta. This storm does not appear like it will have the same amount of cold air with it as the last batch did, or maybe it's just not penetrating as far south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I'm having a really hard time getting excited by the cold air coming in this weekend. The last front we had dropped snow in the mountains and I even got sub zero 850's in Marietta. This storm does not appear like it will have the same amount of cold air with it as the last batch did, or maybe it's just not penetrating as far south... I think Friday has the potential to be pretty chilly around our parts and possibly snow in the NC high country. The parent high is from a decent cold source and slides from west to east far north of us but does manage to bring some CAD on Friday. So while we don't get the dramatic temp drop from west to east like the front from last Wednesday (19th), CAD still looks to be on the table Friday. And when you can get CAD that has the 850mb zero line as far south as the NAM is depicting, that usually translates into some pretty chilly surface temps even into north GA. The 6z and 0z GFS are not as cold as the new 12z NAM so the jury is still out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I think Friday has the potential to be pretty chilly around our parts and possibly snow in the NC high country. The parent high is from a decent cold source and slides from west to east far north of us but does manage to bring some CAD on Friday. So while we don't get the dramatic temp drop from west to east like the front from last Wednesday (19th), CAD still looks to be on the table Friday. And when you can get CAD that has the 850mb zero line as far south as the NAM is depicting, that usually translates into some pretty chilly surface temps even into north GA. The 6z and 0z GFS are not as cold as the new 12z NAM so the jury is still out. If this was a month later I think a lot of us non-mountain people would be getting excited. I have see snow fall in October (in the Raleigh area) but that was back in the late 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The NAM is really chilly across most of NC/SC on Friday. It shows temperatures hanging in the 40's most of the day throughout a good chunk of both carolinas. Yeah it is. Amazed to how each model run wants to nudge the 850 line further south. That would suggest temps falling to 40-44 range around here in northern nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Looking ahead toward Halloween/November 1, you'll notice a BIG difference between the Euro and the GFS... The GFS has the southeast COMPLETELY dry! This is due to it having the quasi cut-off low up around the Great Lakes opposed to the Tennessee River Valley, Euro's placement. The Euro also pulls up a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico out ahead of the system and rains it out over SE AL/SW GA, where they could certainly use the rain... but I doubt that's what will happen. The amount of moisture in the Gulf shown by the Euro seems unreasonable as I don't expect THAT much moisture available for the low to work with. Also, I've noticed over the past month that things have been a little too far south initially on the models so I'd put the quasi cut-off low somewhere along the Indiana/Kentucky/Ohio border and through PA. I'm putting more weight on the GFS for now... Still... It will be something to keep an eye on! With the GFS here: http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M The Euro is attached. Maybe we can get Rina involved somehow. As it is, I'd much rather have a moderately cool cad drizzle for a day or two over what we've had the last few days Hoping for something wet here for a change. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 New 12z GFS painting a chilly Friday also. Has pretty much ATL northward falling into the 40s with 30s along and near the NC mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 By 3z Saturday GFS shows 30s nudging into NE GA. Brr...chilly rain/drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 By 3z Saturday GFS shows 30s nudging into NE GA. Brr...chilly rain/drizzle. Perfect day for football, food, and fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 New 12z GFS painting a chilly Friday also. Has pretty much ATL northward falling into the 40s with 30s along and near the NC mtns. Yeah but look how close Atlanta is to the warmer air. 60 not far from Atlanta and 70 near Columbus ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yeah but look how close Atlanta is to the warmer air. 60 not far from Atlanta and 70 near Columbus ! That's the nice part about living where we do, we get cold when the rest of the state doesn't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I think Friday has the potential to be pretty chilly around our parts and possibly snow in the NC high country. The parent high is from a decent cold source and slides from west to east far north of us but does manage to bring some CAD on Friday. So while we don't get the dramatic temp drop from west to east like the front from last Wednesday (19th), CAD still looks to be on the table Friday. And when you can get CAD that has the 850mb zero line as far south as the NAM is depicting, that usually translates into some pretty chilly surface temps even into north GA. The 6z and 0z GFS are not as cold as the new 12z NAM so the jury is still out. Nam certainly looks interesting for the mid to high elevations of western nc. Here is the 54 hour soundings. Looks like snow could fall or mix in with the rain as low as 3500 feet or so for a time and mainly snow above 4000 feet with temps close to freezing..or close enough that any heavier precip could be all snow...wetbulb zero heights could be as low as around 4000 to 4200 feet. Nam dries the snow growth region out quickly though so it would be a quick shot if it happened. GFS though is much warmer and would be all rain, even for the highest of elevations. Date: 54 hour Eta valid 18Z FRI 28 OCT 11 Station: KAVL Latitude: 35.43 Longitude: -82.55 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 189 1 950 610 SFC 931 777 4.3 2.7 89 1.6 3.5 79 6 283.2 284.1 280.1 297.1 4.98 3 900 1048 0.9 0.8 100 0.0 0.8 70 14 282.4 283.2 279.1 295.0 4.51 4 850 1506 -0.1 -0.2 100 0.0 -0.2 123 8 286.0 286.8 280.7 298.6 4.44 5 800 1992 0.4 0.4 100 0.0 0.4 218 15 291.6 292.5 283.7 305.8 4.92 6 750 2511 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 238 30 296.6 297.5 285.9 311.7 5.11 7 700 3062 -1.8 -1.8 100 0.0 -1.8 244 33 300.5 301.4 287.1 314.9 4.78 8 650 3650 -3.6 -5.2 89 1.6 -4.3 246 38 304.9 305.6 287.8 317.2 4.00 9 600 4279 -6.7 -8.5 87 1.8 -7.4 246 45 308.4 309.0 288.4 318.9 3.36 10 550 4953 -11.0 -13.2 84 2.1 -11.8 244 50 311.0 311.5 288.5 319.1 2.52 11 500 5677 -16.2 -20.2 71 4.0 -17.3 243 55 313.3 313.6 288.2 318.4 1.54 12 450 6465 -18.8 -33.9 25 15.1 -21.5 247 59 319.6 319.7 289.2 321.4 0.48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yup. I will be in Boone at 7:45am for gameday this Saturday. awesome! Perfect day for football, food, and fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Perfect day for football, food, and fire ... and drinks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I think Friday has the potential to be pretty chilly around our parts and possibly snow in the NC high country. The parent high is from a decent cold source and slides from west to east far north of us but does manage to bring some CAD on Friday. So while we don't get the dramatic temp drop from west to east like the front from last Wednesday (19th), CAD still looks to be on the table Friday. And when you can get CAD that has the 850mb zero line as far south as the NAM is depicting, that usually translates into some pretty chilly surface temps even into north GA. The 6z and 0z GFS are not as cold as the new 12z NAM so the jury is still out. Perhaps I was a tad harsh on the storm system. I guess the previous models runs earlier in the week got me spoiled. I would love for a drizzly cold Friday that would be very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 From GSP... .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS AND LIGHT PCPN FALLS INTO THE WEDGE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE SHORT WAVE THAT CROSSES THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. THE WAVE WILL BE FAIRLY CHANNELED AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. IN FACT...THERE WON/T BE A DESCRIBABLE SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LLVL UPGLIDE AND DEEP LAYER FORCING TO GENERATE PCPN OVER MUCH OF THE FA ON FRIDAY. QPF FOR THE EVENT LOOKS BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE FA. HIGHEST TOTALS WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO THE SRN PART OF THE FA CLOSE TO THE FRONT...AND THE MTNS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL AID INCREASE PCPN EFFICIENCY. ONE INTERESTING WRINKLE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO SOME OF THE HIGHER NC MTN LOCATIONS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS GENERATE SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 4000 FEET OVER THE NRN MTNS AND EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BALSAMS. THE LLVL WARM NOSE IS QUITE WEAK...SO MIXED PCPN SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. ALSO...IT/S HARD TO IMAGINE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IN WESTERN NC IN OCTOBER. THE SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS FROM 0900 UTC ONLY HAVE TWO MEMBERS WITH ANY SNOW. HOWEVER...THE 12 UTC NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING HAS SNOW MOST OF THE DAY UP AT BOONE. THIS IS PROBABLY OVER DONE...BUT THERE IS PLENTY TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST TOTALS I CURRENTLY HAVE ARE AROUND 2 INCHES AT MT MITCHELL...AND AROUND AN INCH AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF AVERY COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 But, Lookout's favorite people MA & NE may get to cash in while we enjoy some cold rain. This would be a sure sign winter in the SE is not to far away. Is it really going to snow Saturday? Wednesday - 10/26/2011, 2:41pm ET Snow falls near Soda Springs, Calif., Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2011. An early October storm swept through Northern California bringing rain to the lower levels and up to six inches of snow to the Sierra Nevada. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)Nathan Hager, wtop.com WASHINGTON - Mention the word "snow" in the Washington area, and you risk setting off a panicked stampede to the nearest supermarket for milk, bread and toilet paper. We're about to run that risk. One of the computer models that meteorologists use to make their weather forecasts, known as the European model, is holding out the possibility of wintry weather for the Washington area this Saturday, especially in points west of D.C. If it happens, it could be the first significant October snow in the Washington area since 1979, according to the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang blog. Under the European scenario, a low-pressure system will combine with enough cold air during the overnight hours Saturday morning to produce some wet snowflakes. The problem is, forecasters also rely on another computer model called GFS, and it predicts the low pressure system will be farther up the coast and off the eastern seaboard, leaving only a possibility of plain rain. "(The European model and GFS) tend to give us different things, different weather situations ... and they tend to, more often than not, disagree, especially about an event that's taking place several days away, like this one," says ABC 7 meteorologist Chris Naille. Naille says the models are likely to converge as we get closer to the weekend, but till then, the European model will give him and his weather prognosticating colleagues something to talk about. "The timing of these systems, especially when you're talking about something three, four days away can change so much between each model run," says Naille. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Did the guidance lose this in the 3-7 day, only to bring it back in a less extreme form in the short term? Certainly true last year, and looking at the 12z GFS ens members, maybe another case study. Pattern setting up for 3 low quality MA/NE cyclones over the next 7 days, minimal impacts south of the NC/VA boarder, maybe some deform type precip rates through central NC heading into Friday, to early to say. Still waiting for the end of the growing season, should be around the 31st with a sd of 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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