NCSNOW Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Pretty good frost here last night, espeacilly the low lying ground. hit 34 at the house and I'm on a hill. Helps living out in sticks on a night like last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 still no frost here yet, except on some roof tops. Looks like the models have lost the next Friday storm. Just a progressive, fast cold frontal passage now.Some areas might even get NO precip with the front, but its too early to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 34.6 this morning, Thought I would get a little colder than that last night. Hopefully within the next month we might see a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 it didnt get as widespread cold with this cool shot as I thought it would especially in NC, SC, VA, and MD. RDU, GSO, and DCA still havent gone below 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 still no frost here yet, except on some roof tops. Looks like the models have lost the next Friday storm. Just a progressive, fast cold frontal passage now.Some areas might even get NO precip with the front, but its too early to say. To me there are two things that have changed with the storm: 1) It seems the models are all lagging behind the southern shortwave in the West and that keeps the whole trough positively tilted as it swings east. If that shortwaves phases in that changes things dramatically. 2) There is also another shortwave in the northern stream that appears to be acting as a semi kicker and not allowing the main trough to dig quite as much. If it comes in slower/weaker than advertised then the trough will be able to really dig. Plenty of time left and I wouldn't be surprised to see the models come back to the idea of a more phased/consolidated trough. I can remember many a time last winter when storms were dropped/lost due to shortwave interactions that can't be perfectly modeled from this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Only 39 here this morning with some of the thickest fog Ive seen here. At 5am you couldnt see more than 100 feet. It was still cold enough for a morning fire to warm up the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 40.3 for a low, wow I'm glad summer has been beaten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Another freeze with heavy frost here as we bottomed out @ 29.0 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Geeesh the forecast to be near 80 next week till Thursday around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 To me there are two things that have changed with the storm: 1) It seems the models are all lagging behind the southern shortwave in the West and that keeps the whole trough positively tilted as it swings east. If that shortwaves phases in that changes things dramatically. 2) There is also another shortwave in the northern stream that appears to be acting as a semi kicker and not allowing the main trough to dig quite as much. If it comes in slower/weaker than advertised then the trough will be able to really dig. Plenty of time left and I wouldn't be surprised to see the models come back to the idea of a more phased/consolidated trough. I can remember many a time last winter when storms were dropped/lost due to shortwave interactions that can't be perfectly modeled from this range. For sure. I still hold to my original idea - and if I can find some time will put up a map of what I think will happen. It's not the time for far southern snows, nor will it be for at least a month. However, I still hold that the snows will start happening in interior new england and occasionally a band of accumulations will worm its way down the spine of the Apps as it always does. Whether it's this one or the next one remains to be seen, but climatology is on the side of this happening as Fall progresses into Winter. I don't forsee any snow happening south of TN until December anyway simply because the cold air has to make it south and will be heavily modified without significant snowpack in Canada and the northern US. It can happen in November and even late October in some spots of TN simply due to the elevation and upslope snow. But, if we get a system like the last one and it's a little colder, it would have put some pack down in the Ohio valley even if it got melted later. The trend is your friend, and over time snowpacks will start building and outpacing any snowmelt - and that's when you start looking for more unusual weather, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Last year it seemed that the models tended to underestimate cold and system strength. Seems to me that the models @ 5-10 days are overestimating the cold and overestimating the strength of a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 To me there are two things that have changed with the storm: 1) It seems the models are all lagging behind the southern shortwave in the West and that keeps the whole trough positively tilted as it swings east. If that shortwaves phases in that changes things dramatically. 2) There is also another shortwave in the northern stream that appears to be acting as a semi kicker and not allowing the main trough to dig quite as much. If it comes in slower/weaker than advertised then the trough will be able to really dig. Plenty of time left and I wouldn't be surprised to see the models come back to the idea of a more phased/consolidated trough. I can remember many a time last winter when storms were dropped/lost due to shortwave interactions that can't be perfectly modeled from this range. Well said. Thats how it appears to be shaping up. The fast flow is a problem for models, and we're getting in that time period now more and more. So this will be a key problem henceforth, more than not. 12 Z GFS wants to close off the southern wave weakly, while the rest of the trough is just positive tilt. Could be a decent rain maker along the track of the southern wave but the cold air coming in doesn't look to push too far south this time, regardless of any phasing , partial phasing or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Last year it seemed that the models tended to underestimate cold and system strength. Seems to me that the models @ 5-10 days are overestimating the cold and overestimating the strength of a system. IIRC, I believe that it was also around this time of the year and through much of November that we just couldn't seem to get a true Fall-like cold shot until December began. I think that took place after we had experienced those nasty severe thunderstorms that rolled through during the nightime hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Well said. Thats how it appears to be shaping up. The fast flow is a problem for models, and we're getting in that time period now more and more. So this will be a key problem henceforth, more than not. 12 Z GFS wants to close off the southern wave weakly, while the rest of the trough is just positive tilt. Could be a decent rain maker along the track of the southern wave but the cold air coming in doesn't look to push too far south this time, regardless of any phasing , partial phasing or not. It's possible. I do think snow will happen in interior New England on the 29th through 30th, yes, but the cold air may not make it as far south as I originally thought. This could be due to my other thought - that we're switching to a more zonal pattern for 2 weeks after then 29th, and the switch could be happening during the next cold front. This would make things interesting in terms of timing, because then the next decent cold shot would be between Nov. 15th through 30th (if not a little earlier), which would mean it would most definitely be colder than anything in October. However, we've had 1-2 weeks between significant cold fronts in the SE, so this could be possible. Here in Knoxville, we had a major cold front around the first, then around the 20th, then possibly on the 29th but not as significant as the 20th. Snow could fall as far south as the tri-cities, but I'm knocking down my chances to less than 5% at this point. WV northeast gets 15%, and interior PA, NY get 40%. The green mountains in VT are probably going to be the sweet spot out of this next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 IIRC, I believe that it was also around this time of the year and through much of November that we just couldn't seem to get a true Fall-like cold shot until December began. I think that took place after we had experienced those nasty severe thunderstorms that rolled through during the nightime hours. Without a doubt my attn is solely on the NAO. Without a negative/neutral NAO we will get zonal flow most of the winter thanks to La-nina. Sometimes zonal can work some magic, but I prefer to see the NAO tank and stay tanked. By the way how bout the panthers. Hopefully we will get to smoke the cigar today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Without a doubt my attn is solely on the NAO. Without a negative/neutral NAO we will get zonal flow most of the winter thanks to La-nina. Sometimes zonal can work some magic, but I prefer to see the NAO tank and stay tanked. By the way how bout the panthers. Hopefully we will get to smoke the cigar today. Well, wow the GFS has backed off on the cold 850's by a ton around here. Earlier this week I was looking at the GFS spitting out sub zero Celsius 850's, the newest GFS shows +8c at the lowest. As for the NAO my opinion is based on observation and theory not solid data fwiw. I would like to see the NAO stay positive for a while longer. It seems the NAO can only stay in one state for so long. Let's let the NAO stay on the positive side for another month or two then it can drop the hammer and give us -NAO for December through February. Or let it flip negative soon so we can get another round of positive NAO before we get into the meat of winter. I would be devastated if we get our -NAO's this winter season at the beginning and end of the season.I'm hoping for an extended +NAO or a quick flip to negative for some time here soon so we can get back to our negative NAO when we need it, late December through early February. My dream would be for epic blocking in that time frame, I think it would translate to some good snow possibilities. My nightmare would be a +NAO during that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Well, wow the GFS has backed off on the cold 850's by a ton around here. Earlier this week I was looking at the GFS spitting out sub zero Celsius 850's, the newest GFS shows +8c at the lowest. As for the NAO my opinion is based on observation and theory not solid data fwiw. I would like to see the NAO stay positive for a while longer. It seems the NAO can only stay in one state for so long. Let's let the NAO stay on the positive side for another month or two then it can drop the hammer and give us -NAO for December through February. Or let it flip negative soon so we can get another round of positive NAO before we get into the meat of winter. I would be devastated if we get our -NAO's this winter season at the beginning and end of the season.I'm hoping for an extended +NAO or a quick flip to negative for some time here soon so we can get back to our negative NAO when we need it, late December through early February. My dream would be for epic blocking in that time frame, I think it would translate to some good snow possibilities. My nightmare would be a +NAO during that time frame. Definitely. It's sensing a pattern change to something more zonal in the contig US. Not to worry though as it'll only build the snowpack up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Without a doubt my attn is solely on the NAO. Without a negative/neutral NAO we will get zonal flow most of the winter thanks to La-nina. Sometimes zonal can work some magic, but I prefer to see the NAO tank and stay tanked. By the way how bout the panthers. Hopefully we will get to smoke the cigar today. better hope the -NAO doesn't depend on Panthers wins too often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 better hope the -NAO doesn't depend on Panthers wins too often YES WE CAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 still no frost here yet, except on some roof tops. Looks like the models have lost the next Friday storm. Just a progressive, fast cold frontal passage now.Some areas might even get NO precip with the front, but its too early to say. Due to internet problems and being so busy, I haven't had much time of late but I had patchy frost for a few of those nights. Lowest temp i recorded was 35.1. No actual frost in my yard, except a low spot in the back but there was plenty in some ares in the pasture. It was actually pretty fascinating to look out in the pasture and seeing frost in some areas but not others...indicating where the colder spots always are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If Goofy could just drop those shortwaves down around Valdosta I might could get some decent rain. It warmed up pretty good today, but I'm not even worried about the cold...I just really want to see a pattern set up for decent winter rains again. I'm pretty danged sure it's gonna get cold, but until I can get a system that fully hits me, and doesn't make me ride in the dry portion, I'm going to be nervous about winter things. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If Goofy could just drop those shortwaves down around Valdosta I might could get some decent rain. It warmed up pretty good today, but I'm not even worried about the cold...I just really want to see a pattern set up for decent winter rains again. I'm pretty danged sure it's gonna get cold, but until I can get a system that fully hits me, and doesn't make me ride in the dry portion, I'm going to be nervous about winter things. Tony Me too Tony. 72.6 was my high about 10 minutes ago and I had a whopping 0.01" today! Of well, didn't expect any so I can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 You got rain today? You need to go buy a lotto ticket, buy your own personal racing team, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If Goofy could just drop those shortwaves down around Valdosta I might could get some decent rain. It warmed up pretty good today, but I'm not even worried about the cold...I just really want to see a pattern set up for decent winter rains again. I'm pretty danged sure it's gonna get cold, but until I can get a system that fully hits me, and doesn't make me ride in the dry portion, I'm going to be nervous about winter things. Tony Goofy still has some sprinkles for me, but Dr. No is saying 3-5 drops at best for the end of the week. At least this front will bring back the cooler weather, my winter fall clothes are starting to feel neglected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Goofy still has some sprinkles for me, but Dr. No is saying 3-5 drops at best for the end of the week. At least this front will bring back the cooler weather, my winter fall clothes are starting to feel neglected. I'm wondering what Rina is going to do. Some of the spagetti plots send it this was momentarily before slinging it into Fla. Guess the next front is the reason. Be nice if it hung back then dragged up along a stalled out front for some major league rains. Oh, well, maybe the front will go back to being deeper and stronger T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Anyone see Aurora Borealis tonight? Reports are it was seen pretty far south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Reports coming in of the Aurora Borealis being seen in Western NC and High Country tonight. It even shows on the Crestwood Webcam on Old Schulls Mill Road outside of Blowing Rock. At first, I thought it was light on low clouds but it is clear. Check the green hue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 From Stanley County (Courtesy of @wxbrad twitter feed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Richmond Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The weekend's looking chillier than I thought. Highs may only range from the mid 50s to around 60 with lows reaching mid 30s for some locations outside the Apps. We then seem to warm back up somewhat for a little while before another cold shot moves in sometime around the Day 10 time frame per 0z GFS/Euro. Now if we can just get that kind of pattern going for the upcoming winter but longer-lasting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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