October Obs.

[valkhorn]

This is close to the solution I've been pointing at over the last day or two.

I think the Euro may be onto something too, but I don't know if snow will make it much further south than the tri-cities to include Knox and Nashville. The most recent halloween storm I can find was October of 1993 that gave us in Knox seriously cold weather - but it was nothing compared to the great Appalachian Storm of 1950 later on in the year.

[valkhorn]

Why do you think there will be snow from MO to PA? Lets not get deeply into science here because of the fact hell would freeze over before this actually came to be. The models are flip flopping too much to say for sure. But lets use this model run as an example.

There are other things to determine snow just other than the 850 line. Even though the 850 freezing line is thought of the r/s line you have to look at the critical thickness(usually look for 540), 850 low placement, and even the 10m temp map even and the temps between 850 and surface.

With that said, from what I'm seeing nothing would support snow outside of the App mountains. Not from MO,West TN. Only once this storm starts going up the coast and caa into the mountains from the back side of the 850 low temps will fall below 0c at 850. Since the App mountains range 2000-5000+ft 850 line is generally though r/s line at 4-5k feet, then you could assume there will be snow falling 3k+ feet.

I'm not sure you read what I said. I pointed out what the GFS did on one single run, and stuck to my conclusion that I don't think there will be snow all the way back into MO and the OH river valley right now. I still think that a measureable snow event is possible from the tri-cities over to Boone, NC up into PA. Those events HAVE happened before close to Halloween, and so to me it's plausible. Once we roll into November, snows back in upstate PA and NY will become much more common, and even snows all the way down into the Apps.

Additionally, I'm aware that it takes more to make accumulating snow than what it says on the map - but I'm also aware that with heavy enough snow it will accumulate even if it is above freezing. I've seen that happen many times, even with 'supposedly' warm ground temps. In fact, this year around the first week of January, an unforecasted deformation band parked right on top of my area and gave us a quick 2-3" of snow all while the temp. was between 33 and 34 degrees.

[Itunis]

I'm not sure you read what I said. I pointed out what the GFS did on one single run, and stuck to my conclusion that I don't think there will be snow all the way back into MO and the OH river valley right now. I still think that a measureable snow event is possible from the tri-cities over to Boone, NC up into PA. Those events HAVE happened before close to Halloween, and so to me it's plausible. Once we roll into November, snows back in upstate PA and NY will become much more common, and even snows all the way down into the Apps.

Additionally, I'm aware that it takes more to make accumulating snow than what it says on the map - but I'm also aware that with heavy enough snow it will accumulate even if it is above freezing. I've seen that happen many times, even with 'supposedly' warm ground temps. In fact, this year around the first week of January, an unforecasted deformation band parked right on top of my area and gave us a quick 2-3" of snow all while the temp. was between 33 and 34 degrees.

Upstate PA's gotten snow earlier than what is being forecast-State College got almost 5" on Oct 15-16 2009. It's not exceedingly rare by the last week of October here. But at the same time we are all particularly cautious this early in the season. The 6Z GFS shows just how unreliable the models can be at this time range. Having said that, an event like this is definitely plausible-likely? No-but plausible, and people in the Southern Apps up toward my area and north should definitely keep an eye on this.

[valkhorn]

Upstate PA's gotten snow earlier than what is being forecast-State College got almost 5" on Oct 15-16 2009. It's not exceedingly rare by the last week of October here. But at the same time we are all particularly cautious this early in the season. The 6Z GFS shows just how unreliable the models can be at this time range. Having said that, an event like this is definitely plausible-likely? No-but plausible, and people in the Southern Apps up toward my area and north should definitely keep an eye on this.

I couldn't agree more. Sometimes early season snow events can be worse than ones in the dead of winter simply because a lot of the leaves remain on the trees.

[NavarreDon]

Well the 00z ECM had a

The pattern is so active and fast, and it looks like the individual s/w are spaced just right so far, to bring about a major storm "somewhere". That place could be anywhere from Texas to the Tenn or Oh Valleys, Southeast or Midalantic. The longwavength and zonal flow makes it hard to say where, its just too far out, but the GFS has been in this camp for a very long time now. The ECM had its trough out west for a few days, and now is siding with GFS. Both pump up the western ridge, thanks to a very strong Pacific storm there, so a very strong s/w dives anomalously far south toward the Gulf, and somewhere it will spark a bombing low. Literally it looks like, pressures drop extremely rapidly once it starts around the Miss. River , and as it goes neg. tilt, comma head snow comes down hard on the northwest shield. But so far, this is still only on the models and is too far out to trust or get excited about. But I don't remember seeing models show major snow that far south in October before, outside the higher mtns anyway. Could be another fun storm to follow....we've had a lot of these already. If its like the last few, the models will begin to carve out a deep closed low eventually . That would change things up a little, as DPVA weakens on the comma head and upper dynamics change, but snow would spread out more under the closed off low, if the cold air is legit. Time of day during the heaviest precip and dynamic cooling would mean a lot this time of year, and ECM was showing nighttime threat for n. Al, Ms central to west TN and KY Thursday night. Also, another big rain event possible in the southeast, but there would be a dryslot somewhere just east and southeast of the main low track.

Thanks for the write up Robert! Looking foward to another winter with your analysis. As for a Halloween thread Let Cold Rain do it.

[dsaur]

35.7 here over night. Still looking for freezing...maybe tonight?

While I'm in the return to the 50's/60's/late 1800's winter weather paradigm for Ga. camp ( particularly if I get something frozen on the ground this winter), I'm just hoping first for historic rain next week. A return to the gulf tap, wound up, slow moving lows of the past would be a great indicator for the winter to me...and if it gets cold...that's a plus. Tony

[WidreMann]

This upcoming storm does look pretty interesting. I like the trend of these Gulf lows blowing up over the SE. Irene was the warning shot. Even if we have a warm winter overall, all we need is one of these after a cold shot and we all make climo. Not holding out for it, but it's a positive sign amidst a sea of despair.

[Carvers Gap]

I have my doubts about any snow outside of the mountains. I'm generally a pessimist when climo doesn't support such a thing. However, there are a few interesting points:

1. This could be the third snow in the mountains in October.

2. Tennessee plays South Carolina in Knoxville next Saturday. It's a 7:15 PM night game. Though it most likely won't snow, I have never seen a snowflake at a UT game in my thirty years of attending games. So, a flurry would be a milestone. However, heavy rain and wind would be a nice consolation prize.

But hey, chasing storms in October (even November) is icing on the cake.

[strongwxnc]

I will be in Boone for a 3 pm kick.... Just let me make it up the mountain if it snows folks

I have my doubts about any snow outside of the mountains. I'm generally a pessimist when climo doesn't support such a thing. However, there are a few interesting points:

1. This could be the third snow in the mountains in October.

2. Tennessee plays South Carolina in Knoxville next Saturday. It's a 7:15 PM night game. Though it most likely won't snow, I have never seen a snowflake at a UT game in my thirty years of attending games. So, a flurry would be a milestone. However, heavy rain and wind would be a nice consolation prize.

But hey, chasing storms in October (even November) is icing on the cake.

[DaculaWeather]

Trick or Treat?

[ATL_Militarypolice]

SPC:

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON DAY 6/THURSDAY INTO DAY 7/FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A CORRIDOR FROM FL TO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD BE AS THE EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY AT THIS JUNCTURE PRECLUDE A 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREA.

[ECUPiratewx]

This upcoming storm does look pretty interesting. I like the trend of these Gulf lows blowing up over the SE. Irene was the warning shot. Even if we have a warm winter overall, all we need is one of these after a cold shot and we all make climo. Not holding out for it, but it's a positive sign amidst a sea of despair.

Wait...YOU'RE somewhat optimistic?

Well, now I'm really excited for the winter

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro looks much less impressive for the SE in terms of any wintery precip. regarding the pre-Halloween event.

[FoothillsNC]

The 12z Euro looks much less impressive for the SE in terms of any wintery precip. regarding the pre-Halloween event.

Yep, no surprise though, and anything is still possible, but the odds have gone down because the GFS is now honing in on a track, while ECMWF continues to waffle. Even though the GFS has a strong closed low coming through TENN valley and Apps, it doesn't phase in quite enough cold air on the backside. Almost though, and this kind of detail can't get worked out until quite a bit later on. Its still October so it would be hard to get enough cold air down, like the 00z ECM was showing. There would have to be strong amplfication and perfect timing to get the Canadian wave to phase all the way in, and it just doesn't quite look cold enough. If this synoptic pattern continues though, it won't be long into November though. As it is now, I'd still lean closer to a GFS track and evolution. That would open the door to severe in the Southeast, with strong warm advection and dynamics, with possible snow on nw side, esp. the higher elevations. Its still early and one misplaced s/w in the Pacific will easily change the track.

[buckeyefan1]

Yep, no surprise though, and anything is still possible, but the odds have gone down because the GFS is now honing in on a track, while ECMWF continues to waffle. Even though the GFS has a strong closed low coming through TENN valley and Apps, it doesn't phase in quite enough cold air on the backside. Almost though, and this kind of detail can't get worked out until quite a bit later on. Its still October so it would be hard to get enough cold air down, like the 00z ECM was showing. There would have to be strong amplfication and perfect timing to get the Canadian wave to phase all the way in, and it just doesn't quite look cold enough. If this synoptic pattern continues though, it won't be long into November though. As it is now, I'd still lean closer to a GFS track and evolution. That would open the door to severe in the Southeast, with strong warm advection and dynamics, with possible snow on nw side, esp. the higher elevations. Its still early and one misplaced s/w in the Pacific will easily change the track.

Hopefully it brings me some rain and a rumble of thunder or two

[SN_Lover]

GSP:

"A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT....FROST/FREEZE SEASON ENDED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH OCCURRENCES OF FREEZING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS OVER THE PAST TWO MORNINGS TO EFFECTIVELY END THE GROWING SEASON. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE NO MORE ISSUANCES OF FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FOR AUTUMN 2011."

[WilkesboroDude]

[NC_hailstorm]

Not buying anything frozen outside the higher mountains,still way too early for that talk in my opinion.

New 12Z GFS is spitting out some good rain totals though next weekend.

[Solak]

Not buying anything frozen outside the higher mountains,still way too early for that talk in my opinion.

New 12Z GFS is spitting out some good rain totals though next weekend.

I have no idea what to think on the model flip flops... the 12z does throw out a lot of rain for my location (2.24") but the run before it - 6z - only showed .33" for next weekend. The 00z was 1.09, and the 18z before that was just .06". for the same time frame. Really frustrating when you're model watching just to see if you might get some decent rain.

You wouldn't think it, given all the rainy systems we've had this fall, that my location has had 9+ inches less than RDU for the year, yet they are in a D1 drought , and we're supposedly in a D0 while dealing with approx 7" below normal for the year, but they are in a D1 with above normal precip for the year?

I should stop - I'm starting to sound like FoothillsNC - 2009/2010 version

[Carvers Gap]

Yep, no surprise though, and anything is still possible, but the odds have gone down because the GFS is now honing in on a track, while ECMWF continues to waffle. Even though the GFS has a strong closed low coming through TENN valley and Apps, it doesn't phase in quite enough cold air on the backside. Almost though, and this kind of detail can't get worked out until quite a bit later on. Its still October so it would be hard to get enough cold air down, like the 00z ECM was showing. There would have to be strong amplfication and perfect timing to get the Canadian wave to phase all the way in, and it just doesn't quite look cold enough. If this synoptic pattern continues though, it won't be long into November though. As it is now, I'd still lean closer to a GFS track and evolution. That would open the door to severe in the Southeast, with strong warm advection and dynamics, with possible snow on nw side, esp. the higher elevations. Its still early and one misplaced s/w in the Pacific will easily change the track.

Honestly, some wind and rain will be just fine. As with most winters, there should be plenty of systems to track this winter...Anything(even getting to have this discussion about a storm's potential) this time of year is gravy. I'm still pulling for someone in the SE to see some snowflakes from this. That way we can say the season started early.

[valkhorn]

Not buying anything frozen outside the higher mountains,still way too early for that talk in my opinion.

New 12Z GFS is spitting out some good rain totals though next weekend.

I disagree. This next system will be colder than the last two and you can take that to the bank. The last two gave measureable snows in WV and the mountains of NC/TN. Knoxville could have had ample snow showers if it was 10 degrees colder on Thursday. I don't see how it couldn't be 5 degrees colder with the next round.

[tnweathernut]

Odds are stacked against this being anything significant in the southeast, outside of the highest of elevations. I think it's a stretch, at the very least to use 6-7 day modeling and talk about a storm bearing anything other than rain. That is what it does this time of the year ya know...... Heck, because of the fast flow I wouldn't feel comfortable even with it under 3 to 4 days if it were showing a bomb. Anyway, with that said, DT seems to not be backing off his big east coast low scenerio and doesn't buy the 12z Euro or GFS fwiw.

http://www.wxrisk.com/2011/10/possible-big-east-low-oct-28-29/

I am more excited with the actual pattern and seeing these types of presentations being kicked out on modeling. It makes me think that we will see these recur at some point in the colder months, finally yielding the white gold that so many of us live for.

[Lee]

A bit late getting this on here as was away from PC all day. Got down to 28.3 here this morning for our first hard freeze. Finished my Tomato plants off.

As far as the discussion going on, NWS doesn't seem to think much of it as they have forecasted highs in the 50's next weekend. Of course, they are more than likely adjusting to climo.

The liklihood for measueable snow in the lower eles. is not great for late October but, not impossible as there have been cases. One such event comes to mind; the Halloween 1993 storm produced 1-3" to the valley floor with an additional 1-3" the next day.

Another earlier one, The October 19-20 1989 storm produced record snows just to our north with 5" reported as far south as northern,KY the 19th. A trace to an inch fell to the valley floors here the next day from snow showers that fell throughout the day.

As far as NC goes, yeah, the lowest elevations are very unlikely in October.

[LithiaWx]

Went down to 39.4 last night, coming up short on the night before by 2.5 degrees. I hope I can beat the 36.9 from a few nights ago to set a new low for the season.

[valkhorn]

A bit late getting this on here as was away from PC all day. Got down to 28.3 here this morning for our first hard freeze. Finished my Tomato plants off.

As far as the discussion going on, NWS doesn't seem to think much of it as they have forecasted highs in the 50's next weekend. Of course, they are more than likely adjusting to climo.

The liklihood for measueable snow in the lower eles. is not great for late October but, not impossible as there have been cases. One such event comes to mind; the Halloween 1993 storm produced 1-3" to the valley floor with an additional 1-3" the next day.

Another earlier one, The October 19-20 1989 storm produced record snows just to our north with 5" reported as far south as northern,KY the 19th. A trace to an inch fell to the valley floors here the next day from snow showers that fell throughout the day.

As far as NC goes, yeah, the lowest elevations are very unlikely in October.

I do think it's possible, like I've said about six times, from the tri-cities to Boone, NC northeastward to see something out of this. It's just the pattern we're in. If the next storm is similar and colder that huge shield of rain behind it won't be rain. It was in the low 40s with rain all day here in Knox the last time, and since November is creeping up it can easily be colder with precip around here, and colder further NE.

As far as the NWS, they're going to be VERY conservative this far out. They typically forecast something when it's 5 days out or less, forecast closer to climatology, and then day by day bring the high temps down for whatever day is going to be the coldest. It happens a lot around here in the winter, and it happens MOST of all in the fall because people forget that the seasons don't change gradually, they change in a stair-step fashion with each front, and each front is almost always going to be as cold if not colder than the last at least for October through November.

[FoothillsNC]

I have no idea what to think on the model flip flops... the 12z does throw out a lot of rain for my location (2.24") but the run before it - 6z - only showed .33" for next weekend. The 00z was 1.09, and the 18z before that was just .06". for the same time frame. Really frustrating when you're model watching just to see if you might get some decent rain.

You wouldn't think it, given all the rainy systems we've had this fall, that my location has had 9+ inches less than RDU for the year, yet they are in a D1 drought , and we're supposedly in a D0 while dealing with approx 7" below normal for the year, but they are in a D1 with above normal precip for the year?

I should stop - I'm starting to sound like FoothillsNC - 2009/2010 version

I never have liked looking at 06z and 18z runs on a model when the item in question is so far out. When you get within 3 days I think it has some weight, but the gist of a pattern is the best thing to look at, and right now we see some kind of strong amplification going to happen in between Tx and NC over the last part of next week. I think a couple of off runs of GFS has given next to nothing in rain for a good chunk of NC, SC GA and AL, only some pre-frontal T'storms, a very narrow line. The basic idea is that along and north of the stalled boundary will be the heavy precip, including the northwest shield and comma head rain ( or snow). These kind of tracks don't usually bring a ton of rain to Ga and Carolina if they amp up in Alabama and the center of the Low comes to west NC like this one might. Possible great T-storms though, and those you can't pin down at all yet.

As for going by the official drought charts, I don't think they capture microscale drought. They sure have absolutely no idea that we're over 140" below normal here in the long term, and the palmer index doesnt' show that either, yet its very much the case in a region bounded by me, Forest City and Spartanburg. Only when the drought grows to encompass a pretty big region will they begin to show drought status. Thats a pity too because the Southeast Climate center, NWS, and so many agencies depend on them and their maps, before making a move and putting out statements to local county officials. I've seen many times our officials not receive any "word" until it shows up in the paper with the news that suddenly such and such river is on the verge of disappearing, and then the public panics as if something has happened suddenly. The farmers know the real deal though. And they've about given up here for summer crops (even though we had a decent wet summer for once).

[valkhorn]

00z GFS is in. It's close to my thinking on what will happen, which is snow from the NC/TN border northeastward into NY and PA.

I think the snow will be one step above what happened last time in the upslope areas, and one step above what happened around October 1st in WV and PA. Like I said, I'll be surprised if any snow makes it south of Boone or Bristol, TN.

It makes no sense to me why this won't be a little colder than the last front, and it will have moisture to it.

Also, I predict the totals will slowly increase in the model runs along the higher elevations of WV and PA, and possibly extend a nose a little southwestward across the lower Apps.

[dsaur]

Hate to say it but the 00 looks more likely than the mega rains, at least down here. I sure love the sw digging into the 4 corners at the end of You Foolish Lad land I'd love to get me one of those in Feb. 44.6 at 2am. T

[Local Yokel Wx]

light frost at 33.2. Fog really killed frost potential for the valley.

[MountainMarvel]

Beautiful sunrise this morning. 33 degrees and a heavy frost for the third morning in a row. Colors have not peaked at this elevation yet. Lots of leaf peepers on the roads....