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October Obs.

jrips27

By jrips27,
in Southeastern States

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

It looks like the 12Z GFS has dropped this idea in it's OP run, individual ensembles are not showing yet. Also it should be known that that's just one member that shows a storm of this caliber, the rest oft the members show a FROPA with little fanfare outside the highest elevations it would seem. Usually you would want to see many more individual members on the bandwagon, for it to be a decent possibility. I also remember seeing this solution pop on and off the last few days. One other thing not going for this is I have yet to see any other models that are on this bandwagon, the GFS is in a world of it's own right now unless I have just plain missed it somewhere else.

I don't think we're talking about the same thing. I'm talking about possible snow from the tri-cities NEward through WV into upstate PA and NY.

The 12z was pretty close to this idea.

post-5715-0-49879400-1319232534.png

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

18z GFS is still on boar with what I think will happen, slightly.

I cropped the image and drew a black line where I think the snow will be more prevalent (dusting to 6"). I don't see it moving out towards NYC. I think we'll have some snow from northeast TN over to Boone, NC and along the axis I drew.

I do think something significant will happen at this time, and it's almost time for the first accumulating snows to show up in New England anyhow. It just seems the pattern favors this sort of thing.

post-5715-0-91303400-1319245548.png

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

west

The 00Z GFS OP run has a lot going on at once.

The 00z GFS paints a healthy snow for the Ohio River Valley from southern MO towards PA - but considering this axis is well to the west of where it has been, I'll have to wait and see if it's a trend first. The reason the shift was so far west is because the Low is moving close to the TN/NC border - which is a good 200 miles west of the 12z and 18z runs. That's a huge shift west even for this far out. I'd like to see how the Euro is handling this.

However, after that, around hours 180-192, the 00z GFS paints snow from ne TN towards PA - and bombs out with over a foot in PA and NY. So, it seems the first low tracks through the NC/TN border NEward, then the second crosses southern FL and hugs the coast.

I don't buy such a solution, yet. I don't see a pattern with a low getting that far west right now.

The bottom line:

* The GFS sees the first significant widespread snow of the season in the US.

* The GFS doesn't know where to put it.

* Give it another two days or three, and it'll solidify much more.

I won't change my ideas until four - six more runs like this. Maybe eight,

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Why do you think there will be snow from MO to PA? Lets not get deeply into science here because of the fact hell would freeze over before this actually came to be. The models are flip flopping too much to say for sure. But lets use this model run as an example.

There are other things to determine snow just other than the 850 line. Even though the 850 freezing line is thought of the r/s line you have to look at the critical thickness(usually look for 540), 850 low placement, and even the 10m temp map even and the temps between 850 and surface.

With that said, from what I'm seeing nothing would support snow outside of the App mountains. Not from MO,West TN. Only once this storm starts going up the coast and caa into the mountains from the back side of the 850 low temps will fall below 0c at 850. Since the App mountains range 2000-5000+ft 850 line is generally though r/s line at 4-5k feet, then you could assume there will be snow falling 3k+ feet.

west

The 00z GFS paints a healthy snow for the Ohio River Valley from southern MO towards PA - but considering this axis is well to the west of where it has been, I'll have to wait and see if it's a trend first. The reason the shift was so far west is because the Low is moving close to the TN/NC border - which is a good 200 miles west of the 12z and 18z runs. That's a huge shift west even for this far out. I'd like to see how the Euro is handling this.

However, after that, around hours 180-192, the 00z GFS paints snow from ne TN towards PA - and bombs out with over a foot in PA and NY. So, it seems the first low tracks through the NC/TN border NEward, then the second crosses southern FL and hugs the coast.

I don't buy such a solution, yet. I don't see a pattern with a low getting that far west right now.

The bottom line:

* The GFS sees the first significant widespread snow of the season in the US.

* The GFS doesn't know where to put it.

* Give it another two days or three, and it'll solidify much more.

I won't change my ideas until four - six more runs like this. Maybe eight,

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

The ECMWF is painting an historic storm across the Midsouth next Thursday into Friday. The Op GFS is warmer and further to the east, but still a very big deal. As I said a few days ago, I don't think the models are going to get the exact locations right for any ampflication in such a long wavelength/Zonal flow type pattern, but that there would be a snapping of the rubberband at some point, and right now they favor it happening in the Southeast or Tenn Valley or East Coast. Its something to watch, and something major will probably happen, but the models will probably continue to flip around a couple more runs. It could be the Euro is right and we have a strong neutral tilt wave come very far south toward the western Gulf states before really bombing out, which would place areas on the north and west sides under a rare, heavy synoptic snowstorm. No matter what, if the s/w does amplify strongly it should have access to pretty cold (cold enough) air, and a nighttime storm in the Tenn. Valley, like where the ECMWF has it for Nashville/Huntsville, would be extremely unusual for such a deep storm, crashing heights and heavy falling snow during the nighttime hours esp. Definitely fun to see that both models have such a strong storm in late October, but the odds are a little more north and west right now, or a little more east toward the Appalachians to MidAtlantic and Northeast for the snow. Its still really early though and we keep getting a general pattern of deep eastern or Ohio Valley troughs.

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

The ECMWF is painting an historic storm across the Midsouth next Thursday into Friday. The Op GFS is warmer and further to the east, but still a very big deal. As I said a few days ago, I don't think the models are going to get the exact locations right for any ampflication in such a long wavelength/Zonal flow type pattern, but that there would be a snapping of the rubberband at some point, and right now they favor it happening in the Southeast or Tenn Valley or East Coast. Its something to watch, and something major will probably happen, but the models will probably continue to flip around a couple more runs. It could be the Euro is right and we have a strong neutral tilt wave come very far south toward the western Gulf states before really bombing out, which would place areas on the north and west sides under a rare, heavy synoptic snowstorm. No matter what, if the s/w does amplify strongly it should have access to pretty cold (cold enough) air, and a nighttime storm in the Tenn. Valley, like where the ECMWF has it for Nashville/Huntsville, would be extremely unusual for such a deep storm, crashing heights and heavy falling snow during the nighttime hours esp. Definitely fun to see that both models have such a strong storm in late October, but the odds are a little more north and west right now, or a little more east toward the Appalachians to MidAtlantic and Northeast for the snow. Its still really early though and we keep getting a general pattern of deep eastern or Ohio Valley troughs.

And away we go! You have peaked my intrest Robert. Tell me more :snowwindow:

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

IMO - perfect time to begin tracking. Halloween storms providing snow are rare for many areas of the country, much less inching down toward the mid-south. Crazy when you think about it. Probably a once in 50-75 years type of thing. The reason it's a perfect time is simple timing. EVERY winter storm provides tricks and treats, what better time to do that than on Halloween. Nice way to kick off "tracking" season.

On a separate note, and this might belong somewhere else so forgive if the question is misplaced but............... What is the best Davis weather station? I am going to drop the hammer this year and purchase one, but the prices range greatly from around 350.00 to 1,000.00. I want wireless (of course) and I think I am looking at the solar wireless with battery backup. Does anyone have one of these. If you have one at all, I'd love to hear what you have, why you like it, and what you'd do different if you were buying all over again.....? I'll hang up and listen.

Have a great day all.

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LiQuiDBuD

LiQuiDBuD

Posted
Posted

IMO - perfect time to begin tracking. Halloween storms providing snow are rare for many areas of the country, much less inching down toward the mid-south. Crazy when you think about it. Probably a once in 50-75 years type of thing. The reason it's a perfect time is simple timing. EVERY winter storm provides tricks and treats, what better time to do that than on Halloween. Nice way to kick off "tracking" season.

On a separate note, and this might belong somewhere else so forgive if the question is misplaced but............... What is the best Davis weather station? I am going to drop the hammer this year and purchase one, but the prices range greatly from around 350.00 to 1,000.00. I want wireless (of course) and I think I am looking at the solar wireless with battery backup. Does anyone have one of these. If you have one at all, I'd love to hear what you have, why you like it, and what you'd do different if you were buying all over again.....? I'll hang up and listen.

Have a great day all.

Just got a Davis Vantage Vue (solar/battery backup/wireless) about a month ago and love it. I didn't get the Vantage Pro2 due to budget constraints, but if money weren't an object I would have definitely bought the VP2 with FARS. I do have a little issue with radiation from a nearby paved road and my anemometer is 6' AGL so it would be nice to be able to separate sensors. That is only possible with the VP2. But there is nothing wrong with having a Vantage Vue.

I do suggest purchasing from Scientific Sales as they had the best price by a fair margin when I bought mine. They also have good prices on bundles of stations with loggers and software.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

On a separate note, and this might belong somewhere else so forgive if the question is misplaced but............... What is the best Davis weather station? I am going to drop the hammer this year and purchase one, but the prices range greatly from around 350.00 to 1,000.00. I want wireless (of course) and I think I am looking at the solar wireless with battery backup. Does anyone have one of these. If you have one at all, I'd love to hear what you have, why you like it, and what you'd do different if you were buying all over again.....? I'll hang up and listen.

Have a great day all.

I have a Davis Vantage Vue. It's the lower end of the Davis stations. It's a single integrated sensor suite that communicates wirelessly back to the console. It has a solar panel for daytime operation and what they call a supercap and battery for those times when there is no sun.

I do not regret buying this particular Davis. It was an unexpected purchase (one I didn't budget for) so I went with the less expensive Davis. But, if i had to do it all over, I would get the VP2+ 6163 with the wireless anemometer option. The 2+ is wireless to the console, has a 24 hour fan aspirated radiation shield (FARS), and has UV and solar sensors. i would probably also buy the soil moisture and temp station.

I do want my anemometer mounted on the roof to get it to 33'.

The accuracy of the sensors is identical in all the models. The only difference is that with a 24 FARS, you'll have slightly more accurate temperatures than without a FARS, and that's only under certain conditions.

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DCMetroWinston

DCMetroWinston

Posted
Posted

The ECMWF is painting an historic storm across the Midsouth next Thursday into Friday. The Op GFS is warmer and further to the east, but still a very big deal. As I said a few days ago, I don't think the models are going to get the exact locations right for any ampflication in such a long wavelength/Zonal flow type pattern, but that there would be a snapping of the rubberband at some point, and right now they favor it happening in the Southeast or Tenn Valley or East Coast. Its something to watch, and something major will probably happen, but the models will probably continue to flip around a couple more runs. It could be the Euro is right and we have a strong neutral tilt wave come very far south toward the western Gulf states before really bombing out, which would place areas on the north and west sides under a rare, heavy synoptic snowstorm. No matter what, if the s/w does amplify strongly it should have access to pretty cold (cold enough) air, and a nighttime storm in the Tenn. Valley, like where the ECMWF has it for Nashville/Huntsville, would be extremely unusual for such a deep storm, crashing heights and heavy falling snow during the nighttime hours esp. Definitely fun to see that both models have such a strong storm in late October, but the odds are a little more north and west right now, or a little more east toward the Appalachians to MidAtlantic and Northeast for the snow. Its still really early though and we keep getting a general pattern of deep eastern or Ohio Valley troughs.

And so it begins! Let the good times roll!

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

And away we go! You have peaked my intrest Robert. Tell me more :snowwindow:

Well the 00z ECM had a

The pattern is so active and fast, and it looks like the individual s/w are spaced just right so far, to bring about a major storm "somewhere". That place could be anywhere from Texas to the Tenn or Oh Valleys, Southeast or Midalantic. The longwavength and zonal flow makes it hard to say where, its just too far out, but the GFS has been in this camp for a very long time now. The ECM had its trough out west for a few days, and now is siding with GFS. Both pump up the western ridge, thanks to a very strong Pacific storm there, so a very strong s/w dives anomalously far south toward the Gulf, and somewhere it will spark a bombing low. Literally it looks like, pressures drop extremely rapidly once it starts around the Miss. River , and as it goes neg. tilt, comma head snow comes down hard on the northwest shield. But so far, this is still only on the models and is too far out to trust or get excited about. But I don't remember seeing models show major snow that far south in October before, outside the higher mtns anyway. Could be another fun storm to follow....we've had a lot of these already. If its like the last few, the models will begin to carve out a deep closed low eventually . That would change things up a little, as DPVA weakens on the comma head and upper dynamics change, but snow would spread out more under the closed off low, if the cold air is legit. Time of day during the heaviest precip and dynamic cooling would mean a lot this time of year, and ECM was showing nighttime threat for n. Al, Ms central to west TN and KY Thursday night. Also, another big rain event possible in the southeast, but there would be a dryslot somewhere just east and southeast of the main low track.

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

Why do you think there will be snow from MO to PA? Lets not get deeply into science here because of the fact hell would freeze over before this actually came to be. The models are flip flopping too much to say for sure. But lets use this model run as an example.

There are other things to determine snow just other than the 850 line. Even though the 850 freezing line is thought of the r/s line you have to look at the critical thickness(usually look for 540), 850 low placement, and even the 10m temp map even and the temps between 850 and surface.

With that said, from what I'm seeing nothing would support snow outside of the App mountains. Not from MO,West TN. Only once this storm starts going up the coast and caa into the mountains from the back side of the 850 low temps will fall below 0c at 850. Since the App mountains range 2000-5000+ft 850 line is generally though r/s line at 4-5k feet, then you could assume there will be snow falling 3k+ feet.

Welcome to the board.....I don't know if you have been here before but you will find as we go through the winter, that most of the posters on this board are highly aware of the conditions that must be met to achieve snow at the surface. We don't start seriously looking at critical thickness values or soundings until we get inside 72 hours. For those long range threats we only look at the 850mb 0 degree isotherm. In your post above you mentioned the 540 line........even that is not a good indicator of where the rain/snow line will set up. It will generally be a little south of that. So, sit back....read and enjoy. You will find some very intelligent discussions from us snow hounds. Also, before making statements like the bolded one above, remember, if it has happened before, it can happen again.

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Blue Ridge

Blue Ridge

Posted
Posted

Welcome to the board.....I don't know if you have been here before but you will find as we go through the winter, that most of the posters on this board are highly aware of the conditions that must be met to achieve snow at the surface. We don't start seriously looking at critical thickness values or soundings until we get inside 72 hours. For those long range threats we only look at the 850mb 0 degree isotherm. In your post above you mentioned the 540 line........even that is not a good indicator of where the rain/snow line will set up. It will generally be a little south of that. So, sit back....read and enjoy. You will find some very intelligent discussions from us snow hounds. Also, before making statements like the bolded one above, remember, if it has happened before, it can happen again.

He's been with us before.

I think you have far too much faith in the general population of posters. There are still plenty that believe (or want to believe) that the 850 0°C line is the dividing line between RN/SN.

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