Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

October Obs.


jrips27

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Made it down to 39 this morning. Looking at a high of about 60, Suppose to be 38 tonight which nws has been trimming the temps back but looks reasonable. They still have 37 for tomorrow nights low. Thats questionable because tomorrow night should be the coldest before the warmer return flow Sunday.

Taken at Richland Balsam (6053') ff Pkwy. 3" with rime ice

post-1288-0-45333300-1319145899.jpg

Thats a nice photo. Truly a winter wonderland.

I've noticed some bare trees up my way too. We are still a few days/week away from peak it appears but some of the pretty maples lost their leaves last night. On a side note: I'm not one for superstitions but this year has had the most walnuts/pecans/acorns that I've ever seen. I've found so many black walnuts this year that I can't even eat them all (going to make black walnut ice cream). My aunt has a 50' pecan that never produces but this year it is loaded. Maybe it was a perfect summer for nuts. I wish that the old superstition would come true and it would translate to a cold winter. Has anyone else noticed this?

Some of the small ones here have shedded thier leafs about a month ago. While the big ones are still green. That is interesting you mentioned the tree harvest. Last 3 years here have been really loaded. Though this is by far the worse of the 3. Its hard to walk in the yard due to the amount acorns. Its like walking on marbles.

It's even more hilarious on the 216 hr. The fact that it shows a range from .5 to 4 inches alone across NC is crazy but it's also strange how that solution has shown up in the same period for a few times now. Too bad it's the only model and especially considering the time of the year. Still it's quite fun to look at.

:lmao: That 18z run cracked me up... If only. It is interesting how its been alluding to a storm like that you mentioned. Guess just watch it over the next week and see. Ive seen strange things in Oct/Nov but nothing of that magnitude. Given the over all pattern we have been in that storm will be another soaking east of the apps. Could be the first significant mountain snow of the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Beautiful picture :thumbsup:

tonights a good night to burn in a fire pit chimanea ( or is it chimney) ? a lady gave me this recently. I'll move it when I make the stepping stone walkway, so the mulch won't burn. Meanwhile, I looked for the ISS, no luck. Nothing but jets. Too many trees on the north side of my property.

I looked too, but didn't see it. :( There is nothing better than enjoying the evening with a fire, while checking out the stars. :sun:

Got acorns hitting the tin roofs like shots, but the black walnut was less than normal in fruiting. Two years ago was a bumper crop, last year more normal, this year below normal, plus it lost all it's leaves weeks ago. I'm sure the lack of rain here is the cause....but, oddly, it is the only tree that has lost leaves. Now, the pomegranate next to it is going crazy with the sour things. I was taking pics today around the yard, and none of my trees have lost any leaves....and not much color showing either. Got to 46 last night, and it is 46 now, so I hope my fire tonight won't be overkill, like last night :) T

I have the first fire of the season burning now :wub:

currently 32 degrees! :thumbsup:

Woo hoooo! :weight_lift:

Made it into the 30's with a low of 39 imby :wub: CAE reported 40 :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The weatherbug station I normally use is on top of the roof of my school, so it says 43.0 degrees. I'll use a station on the ground about three miles away for my low; we're at 37.9 currently.

My Davis Instruments vantage Pro died so no more temps from me for a few weeks. :( Ants took over and shorted out the supercap on the ISS and did damage to the reed switch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Beautiful picture :thumbsup:

I looked too, but didn't see it. :( There is nothing better than enjoying the evening with a fire, while checking out the stars. :sun:

I have the first fire of the season burning now :wub:

Woo hoooo! :weight_lift:

Made it into the 30's with a low of 39 imby :wub: CAE reported 40 :(

Got to 35.7 this morning. A fire was right for last night :) I guess it is official now..no going back once there is a fire in the fireplace :) Even if it gets warm in the months to come, there will still be fire nights :thumbsup: No longer do I need to fear the 90's, lol. T

Link to comment
Share on other sites

low was 33.5 here so missed the freezing mark. a couple of stations nearby at lower elevations did go below 32 :) while no freeze here, there was a lot more frost than i anticipated since it was still windy when i went to bed. some areas had a pretty decent covering of frost this morning - look nice sparkling in the sun :thumbsup:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 officially @ PGV this am, calm wind allowed for mins on the lower side of guidance, 6 degrees cooler than MHX forecasted 24 hrs out. Mowing the back 40, cutting short with the hope it will be the last time till April!

:lmao: That 18z run cracked me up... If only. It is interesting how its been alluding to a storm like that you mentioned. Guess just watch it over the next week and see. Ive seen strange things in Oct/Nov but nothing of that magnitude. Given the over all pattern we have been in that storm will be another soaking east of the apps. Could be the first significant mountain snow of the season.

I have been watching this next weekend for a couple days, GFS showed a blip in the fantasy range on and off, now seems the Euro wants a sniff. 0z Euro has a 992 low off of West Palm, with a slightly pos trough just east of the MS, which would imply ots. First run of this model I have seen bite, so suspect, but a step in the right direction.

00zeuro500mbHGHTNA168.gif

6z GFS ensembles may not be appropriate for younger audiences. Near unanimous agreement for a storm late next week with an UL pattern similar, but more amplified than the EC.

post-382-0-81043200-1319215088.jpg

And than we have this, yeah I posted it, trillion dollars to a donut it won't happen, but climo favored areas in E TN, 77 W in NC, VA could be in for an early season surprise.

06zensp003p06168.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 officially @ PGV this am, calm wind allowed for mins on the lower side of guidance, 6 degrees cooler than MHX forecasted 24 hrs out.  Mowing the back 40, cutting short with the hope it will be the last time till April!I have been watching this next weekend for a couple days, GFS showed a blip in the fantasy range on and off, now seems the Euro wants a sniff.  0z Euro has a 992 low off of West Palm, with a slightly pos trough just east of the MS, which would imply ots.  First run of this model I have seen bite, so suspect, but a step in the right direction.  <img src="http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHGHTNA168.gif" />6z GFS ensembles may not be appropriate for younger audiences.  Near unanimous agreement for a storm late next week with an UL pattern similar, but more amplified than the EC.post-382-0-81043200-1319215088.jpgAnd than we have this, yeah I posted it, trillion dollars to a donut it won't happen, but climo favored areas in E TN, 77 W in NC, VA could be in for an early season surprise.<img src="http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zensp003p06168.gif" />

Out of that particular member, it's unbelievable to see that it puts down 3-4 inches across Central and Eastern NC, with the western edge clipping the Piedmont. Again, more unlikely than not at this point but interesting to monitor. Kind of gets you into a "winter model watching" mood lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah it will be interesting to watch this evolve. Even though early in the year I guess anything is possible. But its a sure bet that there will be a storm next weekend imo. Probably enough snow in the mountains to have a white halloween. Cold soaking rain east of the apps. Hopefully within the next 48 hours things will start becoming clear.

Lol that one ensemble member is epic... I can't even wrap my head around something like that this early in the year. That would be a fairly huge snowstorm for the mountains. A cold driving rain stuck in the low 40s in the piedmont.

I hear ya on the grass got to cut mine also but not wanting to. Tonights temps will probably be couple degrees cooler then forecasted, but not enough for frost I dont think. I'm hoping the temps will be cool enough Sunday morning for some frost to put a end to the grass.

41 officially @ PGV this am, calm wind allowed for mins on the lower side of guidance, 6 degrees cooler than MHX forecasted 24 hrs out. Mowing the back 40, cutting short with the hope it will be the last time till April!

I have been watching this next weekend for a couple days, GFS showed a blip in the fantasy range on and off, now seems the Euro wants a sniff. 0z Euro has a 992 low off of West Palm, with a slightly pos trough just east of the MS, which would imply ots. First run of this model I have seen bite, so suspect, but a step in the right direction.

00zeuro500mbHGHTNA168.gif

6z GFS ensembles may not be appropriate for younger audiences. Near unanimous agreement for a storm late next week with an UL pattern similar, but more amplified than the EC.

post-382-0-81043200-1319215088.jpg

And than we have this, yeah I posted it, trillion dollars to a donut it won't happen, but climo favored areas in E TN, 77 W in NC, VA could be in for an early season surprise.

06zensp003p06168.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I will be in Boone the morning of the 29th at 7:45am so, I have been paying close attention to the time frame since it came into the GFS range.

12Z ensembles are only out to 92 right now. but the 12Z 168 is as shown below.

12zgfsensemblep12168.gif

41 officially @ PGV this am, calm wind allowed for mins on the lower side of guidance, 6 degrees cooler than MHX forecasted 24 hrs out. Mowing the back 40, cutting short with the hope it will be the last time till April!

I have been watching this next weekend for a couple days, GFS showed a blip in the fantasy range on and off, now seems the Euro wants a sniff. 0z Euro has a 992 low off of West Palm, with a slightly pos trough just east of the MS, which would imply ots. First run of this model I have seen bite, so suspect, but a step in the right direction.

6z GFS ensembles may not be appropriate for younger audiences. Near unanimous agreement for a storm late next week with an UL pattern similar, but more amplified than the EC.

post-382-0-81043200-1319215088.jpg

And than we have this, yeah I posted it, trillion dollars to a donut it won't happen, but climo favored areas in E TN, 77 W in NC, VA could be in for an early season surprise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 officially @ PGV this am, calm wind allowed for mins on the lower side of guidance, 6 degrees cooler than MHX forecasted 24 hrs out. Mowing the back 40, cutting short with the hope it will be the last time till April!

I have been watching this next weekend for a couple days, GFS showed a blip in the fantasy range on and off, now seems the Euro wants a sniff. 0z Euro has a 992 low off of West Palm, with a slightly pos trough just east of the MS, which would imply ots. First run of this model I have seen bite, so suspect, but a step in the right direction.

00zeuro500mbHGHTNA168.gif

6z GFS ensembles may not be appropriate for younger audiences. Near unanimous agreement for a storm late next week with an UL pattern similar, but more amplified than the EC.

post-382-0-81043200-1319215088.jpg

And than we have this, yeah I posted it, trillion dollars to a donut it won't happen, but climo favored areas in E TN, 77 W in NC, VA could be in for an early season surprise.

06zensp003p06168.gif

The GFS has been almost invariable on some snow for the apps for the past several days. This was all the way out at 288h at one point, and now it's closer to 168 - which means we have a week left.

The Ensembles look good for something to happen, and if climo is mixed in I still would go with 1-3" for ne TN through VA, WV, upstate PA and NY. If this bombs out like the last storm did, we could be looking at some 3-6" totals somewhere.

I think the western side of the Apps has a better shot at this one just because the pattern seems to favor it, I don't think it will be suppressed, and I'm in Knoxville :)

It's also normal for snow to start falling around the tri-cities around late November anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS has been almost invariable on some snow for the apps for the past several days. This was all the way out at 288h at one point, and now it's closer to 168 - which means we have a week left.

The Ensembles look good for something to happen, and if climo is mixed in I still would go with 1-3" for ne TN through VA, WV, upstate PA and NY. If this bombs out like the last storm did, we could be looking at some 3-6" totals somewhere.

I think the western side of the Apps has a better shot at this one just because the pattern seems to favor it, I don't think it will be suppressed, and I'm in Knoxville :)

It's also normal for snow to start falling around the tri-cities around late November anyway.

It looks like the 12Z GFS has dropped this idea in it's OP run, individual ensembles are not showing yet. Also it should be known that that's just one member that shows a storm of this caliber, the rest oft the members show a FROPA with little fanfare outside the highest elevations it would seem. Usually you would want to see many more individual members on the bandwagon, for it to be a decent possibility. I also remember seeing this solution pop on and off the last few days. One other thing not going for this is I have yet to see any other models that are on this bandwagon, the GFS is in a world of it's own right now unless I have just plain missed it somewhere else.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...