strongwxnc Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Yes. The 12GFS also continues to show a good snap of cold air coming in around the 29th of OCT. Been showing it for a few days now... Look at this awesome trough in about 10 days... I's way out there but with all the healthy troughs so far this fall it really would fit the current pattern.... flurries in the south and a first good snowfall for the upstate of NY and New England? Great time to update.. Right before winter and all ..... The NAM could use an update or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 My thoughts on this storm: http://northcarolinafoothillsweather.blogspot.com/2011/10/tuesday-night-wednesday-morning-storm.html Basically, .5-1 inch of rain in the foothills. Radar is looking good in South Carolina, hoping that it is able to hold on. PW is very low over NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 RAH afternoon discussion; Short term (last paragraph): FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY... BUT GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER. THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO AND ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS HOLDS TO OUR WEST WITH SEVERAL STRONGLY SHEARED VORTICITY MAXIMA CROSSING NC DURING THIS PERIOD... FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS... AND WILL FAVOR A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. THICKNESSES ARE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THURSDAY (NEARLY 30 METERS)... INDICATIVE OF HIGHS OF 60-65 AT THE MOST... WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH. LOWS 38-45 THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY 60-67 WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO NC FROM THE WEST... GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING LOW TEMPS DOWN TO 36-42... BRINGING OUR FIRST CHANCE AT PATCHY FROST IN OUTLYING AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT. -GIH Yes, Kill the bugs!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Clear skies at lunch hour.... now dark clouds are moving into downtown Atlanta! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Clear skies at lunch hour.... now dark clouds are moving into downtown Atlanta! amazing how quickly this thing pulled the moisture north and developed. Which makes this system fun to watch. Just a few hours ago it was at the Florida panhandle, now it looks like moderate rain at Athens. Notice how the line is beginning to form a strong cutoff from northeast to southwest...the NAM may be right, going to have a razor cutoff it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 If thats the case I'll come back in 72 hours to see how well it verifies. It's mythical wheelhouse due to Hi-Res is supose to be under 48 inside 24 if I remeber correctly. So this will be a good test to see how well it does 72 hours out. Thanks for pointing this out. For reference heres the 12znam 10/18/11 output: current radar is supportive of this depiction. Inland max in SC and NC Time sensitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Must be composite, here's a base reflectivity loop http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/ga-state_atlanta_ffc_br248.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Well, I'm getting pretty good rain. Got the ground wet real quick, unlike the last bit of moisture Hope it is just the beginning, unlike the last bit, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Is that rain ever going to make it to the West/NW part of GA or are we in the screw zone for both the tropical moisture and the front ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Welp, I find myself on the edge of that sharp cutoff. I hope this rain can build a tad farther NW to include me in some nice needed rains..... It looks like SC and parts of NC are getting ready to be slammed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Welp, I find myself on the edge of that sharp cutoff. I hope this rain can build a tad farther NW to include me in some nice needed rains..... It looks like SC and parts of NC are getting ready to be slammed... I like you Marietta, so I'm not gonna tell you what I think. You say the prayer at supper tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I like you Marietta, so I'm not gonna tell you what I think. You say the prayer at supper tonight. I hear ya, the fact I used the word "hope" says it all. Not I think or it should...... lol shows you what I really think eh?\ First rain drops have reached my location, I hope it becomes more than that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 SPC fading the North Alabama and Middle Tenn thunderstorms at the moment, 1550 Eastern Time. Couple cells are fairly hot on radar and may contain dime to nickel hail. See if those cells can get anchored any better for isolated wind. Prolly not enough to justify a watch, but opportunity for needed rain and some thunder. Enjoy! :mapstorm: ...but not too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 18z NAM seems to have shifted slightly NW with the axis of hvy precip though less on the amts 36hr total precip: http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p36.gif 12z run: http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 18z NAM seems to have shifted slightly NW with the axis of hvy precip though less on the amts 36hr total precip: http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p36.gif 12z run: http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p36.gif to be honest, the 12z looked like a better depiction based on current radar trends. It's early in the game though. Raining heavily in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Columbia does not appear to be having a happy rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 amazing how quickly this thing pulled the moisture north and developed. Which makes this system fun to watch. Just a few hours ago it was at the Florida panhandle, now it looks like moderate rain at Athens. Notice how the line is beginning to form a strong cutoff from northeast to southwest...the NAM may be right, going to have a razor cutoff it appears. lol you beat me to it. it was still sunny and warm after 3 PM this afternoon, now completely overcast with rain and embedded thunder! it really came in fast this afternoon (fast enough that non wx weenies even noticed ) edited to add: radar is looking good for ne ga and the upstate, rains look to be heavy momentarily. i sure hope it lasts all night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 About 3 drops here ... shafted so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 18 degrees cooler than this time yesterday and 0.36" for far and still have showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 76 and partly cloudy here Not a drop of rain yet. NWS says 80% chance of storms tonight. Not sure I'm buying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I wasn't sure whether to start a thread for this, because it's obviously still far out. It's hour 252 on the 12z GFS, and it looks good. http://raleighwx.ame...2_county252.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I wasn't sure whether to start a thread for this, because it's obviously still far out. It's hour 252 on the 12z GFS, and it looks good. http://raleighwx.ame...2_county252.gif for what? cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Hawkins Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 20 degree drop in temps in less than an hour here with the front. I love this time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Well, that was underwhelmingly disappointing. Less than a tenth, and the suns out...though it was raining pretty good with the sun out for a while....now that has stopped. Less than 3 inches in nearly two months. I saw the camel again earlier....peeking at me over the dunes T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Well, this baby is about done in Hilton Head. Got about a third of an inch this afternoon. Maybe a little more on the way, but should be much. Underwhelmed after the anticipation of a "coastal". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Well, that was underwhelmingly disappointing. Less than a tenth, and the suns out...though it was raining pretty good with the sun out for a while....now that has stopped. Less than 3 inches in nearly two months. I saw the camel again earlier....peeking at me over the dunes T to quote a famous line by you I got exactly 321 drops of rain today... Looks like it's over for the most part, I may get some rains from the frontal passage later tonight but I'm not expecting much. Dark clouds, some wind, and some sun all mixed together right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 to quote a famous line by you I got exactly 321 drops of rain today... Looks like it's over for the most part, I may get some rains from the frontal passage later tonight but I'm not expecting much. Dark clouds, some wind, and some sun all mixed together right now.... Well, Mayretta, I'm sure glad you got something, as squeezing rain out of these clouds is getting really tough, lol. You've done ok, for the last few months, haven't you? Got some from Lee? And I know lightening has been looking for you...and that takes rain..mostly....well, somewhere, lol. I'm getting ready to demand extensive study of dry slotting, and what dry slotting attractant substances may have been smeared around the south by nefarious miscreants. Every decent event over the last 3 years has shafted us down this way either with the dry slot, or no slot at all Me, and Fide, Psalm and Candyman are going to have to form an unrequited weather yearning group pretty soon, if something doesn't change! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Well, Mayretta, I'm sure glad you got something, as squeezing rain out of these clouds is getting really tough, lol. You've done ok, for the last few months, haven't you? Got some from Lee? And I know lightening has been looking for you...and that takes rain..mostly....well, somewhere, lol. I'm getting ready to demand extensive study of dry slotting, and what dry slotting attractant substances may have been smeared around the south by nefarious miscreants. Every decent event over the last 3 years has shafted us down this way either with the dry slot, or no slot at all Me, and Fide, Psalm and Candyman are going to have to form an unrequited weather yearning group pretty soon, if something doesn't change! T Rain has been fair but not meeting expectations in the last few months.... I'll settle for a southeast get together over the rain if possible.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 to quote a famous line by you I got exactly 321 drops of rain today... Looks like it's over for the most part, I may get some rains from the frontal passage later tonight but I'm not expecting much. Dark clouds, some wind, and some sun all mixed together right now.... FFC says it's almost a sure bet we get thunderstorms tonight. 80% chance with .25-.50" of rain expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 i feel bad now that i see the low totals...its starting to lighten up here a bit (and radar looks like its on the way out) but 1.34" so far its been absolutely pouring since it started. temps have dropped too, down to 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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