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October Obs.

jrips27

By jrips27,
in Southeastern States

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

its becoming obvious the models are just now catching on to all that rich moisture in the Gulf that is about to catapult right into Georgia and the CArolinas, then up the East coast and get pulled west under the cut off. We don't exactly see this often. I'd almost bet a million bucks the rain is going to overperform on this for a huge chunk of Ga and Carolinas..hard to say exactly who yet, but with that kind of juicy moisture , and the strong, and very deep trough and dynamics (plus check out the incredible thickness packing at just 24 hours out!), then something big is probably going to happen. I haven't been this excited over a storm in ages. Esp. excited for the folks in GA and central SC and NC that really need the rain. The coast could end up with 4" if that second and third round develops like the NAM is showing...and I'm pretty sure they don't want that much rain.

You would be correct sir.....mosquitos are terrible and there are tons of fields with cotten in them still because the farmers cant get in them without getting bogged down.....on our hunting club land the farmer sprayed the cotten to kill the leaves so he could harvest, then we got all that rain and he couldnt get it up. Then it warmed up and the leaves grew back so he sprayed em again this weekend. However we get that much rain and he prolly wont be able to get em up this time either.

I also am not to thrilled with the the tornado potential ( well the timing of it anyways) and the tornados could be a bit stronger than what we normally see.

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CandymanColumbusGA

CandymanColumbusGA

Posted
Posted

it does look like on all the models a quick and sharp cutoff very near the Al/GA border, and especially south of 20 in that zone. Because first the moisture will pull north tomorrow afternoon, and that first part could miss the southern part of Ala, and by the time the next shortwave digs in all the moisture could be used up, but scattered showers could redevelop about anytime. More to the north though over n. Ala and GA. I think. A squall line might develop , its doubtful, but the trough overall is hanging so far back to the west that it could tap the Gulf again sometime early Wed, which would be a surprise bonus rain in Ala and GA.

I will admit, I haven't tracked this system until yesterday (was on vacation and away from a computer for a few days...). That said, I have to agree with you Robert. This storm is SUPER impressive! Only thing I'm concerned about, locally, is that dry slot! I chatted with the other station's weekend MET and he saw the same thing... We both agreed that it could certainly happen, but the dynamics are just too ridiculous to not include shower/thunderstorm activity, especially for our eastern viewers. I have a feeling the moisture will be tugged a little further east, keeping much of east central Alabama dry until the front moves through tomorrow night/Wednesday morning.

Like you have said a few times. It's certainly interesting seeing this thing set-up, even if I have only tracked it the past 24 hours... haha!

Here's to a LOT of people picking up some much needed rain! I just don't think that will be the case here... :( At least I hope so! I'm the only meteorologist on staff until Wednesday morning.... haha! :arrowhead:

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

The shaft is great with this event, padwan... .25" is my Widrecast for Orange county, nc....

wow, a major total bust could be in the making. All models have moved way east now, barely even getting the coast. The two systems may not merge. 6z GFS and NAM are now that way. Only ECMWF brings the system far enough west, but its cut down amounts too. Looking at the Gulf and water vapor, its hard to see how in less than 24 hours out, the moisture gets pulled inland this far. This would be extremely embarrassing, but it could happen. At this point, the strong digging shortwave coming into lower Miss. Valley should still generate some rain, but nothing like what the models and I thought could happen...could be a huge gap of almost nothing in GA and the central and west Carolinas especially.:lightning:

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Amos83

Amos83

Posted
Posted

wow, a major total bust could be in the making. All models have moved way east now, barely even getting the coast. The two systems may not merge. 6z GFS and NAM are now that way. Only ECMWF brings the system far enough west, but its cut down amounts too. Looking at the Gulf and water vapor, its hard to see how in less than 24 hours out, the moisture gets pulled inland this far. This would be extremely embarrassing, but it could happen. At this point, the strong digging shortwave coming into lower Miss. Valley should still generate some rain, but nothing like what the models and I thought could happen...could be a huge gap of almost nothing in GA and the central and west Carolinas especially.:lightning:

I noticed that too but was hoping it was just a hiccup. Oh well, let's get these busts out of the way now instead of Dec/Jan.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

well I guess it will come down to radars. There's some decent returns coming into Florida panhandle now, not really from the convection in the lower Gulf though, just from divergence and strong dynamics coming into lower Miss. valley, and beginning to cause lift, also probably part of the low level circulation in the gulf getting sheared now, so I think atleast some moisture will begin to develop. But the NAM really shows a razor sharp line beginning to take shape later today from central east GA and cuts that line northeast to central and esp. eastern Carolinas tonight, bypassing most of the ATL and AHN region up to GSP and CLT and points west. But those areas would get their rain overnight and early Wed. from the incoming system to the west. If the gulf system had been positioned a little more to the north and west though, this would have been a huge event...probably not going to be now though...but any rain helps I guess.

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

well I guess it will come down to radars. There's some decent returns coming into Florida panhandle now, not really from the convection in the lower Gulf though, just from divergence and strong dynamics coming into lower Miss. valley, and beginning to cause lift, also probably part of the low level circulation in the gulf getting sheared now, so I think atleast some moisture will begin to develop. But the NAM really shows a razor sharp line beginning to take shape later today from central east GA and cuts that line northeast to central and esp. eastern Carolinas tonight, bypassing most of the ATL and AHN region up to GSP and CLT and points west. But those areas would get their rain overnight and early Wed. from the incoming system to the west. If the gulf system had been positioned a little more to the north and west though, this would have been a huge event...probably not going to be now though...but any rain helps I guess.

Yeah, the NAM really shafted central NC, eastern SC, and most of northern GA (like normal). However, the western piedmont/foothills of NC still stands to get some rainfall. I would suppose this is due to the moisture from the south banking up against the foothills and mountains of the southern Apps and creating lift. The coastal counties of all three states appear to get copious amounts of moisture.

06znamp24_SE042.gif

TLH_0.png

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Amos83

Amos83

Posted
Posted

The next 6 hours or so will be telling. The trough is beginning to tilt negative now which will start to interact with the gulf storm. Like Robert mentioned there is already precip coming onshore on the Floriday Panhandle so lets see if that area can start to explode inland. Should be interesting to watch either way.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Underlined pretty good info from last night Rah disco. Goes hand in hand with what others have previously stated about a precip max.

MODEL GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY MOIST

ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THANKS TO A

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING NNE ALONG THE SE U.S.S. COAST AND

THE APPROACH OF A MATURE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TN VALLEY.

CENTRAL NC EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF

120+ KT UPPER JET WITH APPRECIABLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS

OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC LIFT INTERACTING WITH THE

MOIST AIR ALONE IN ITSELF SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS

CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. WHERE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED WILL

DETERMINE WHERE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR. IN THIS REGARD

MODELS OFFER VARYING SCENARIOS. USING A CONCEPTUAL MODEL THAT

RELATES TO A TROPICAL LOW TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRA TROPICAL

LOW...THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL LIKELY DEMONSTRATE

SUBTROPICAL/HYBRID LOW CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT. BASED ON RESEARCH

FROM THE C*STAR PROGRAM...THE APPROACH OF THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH

FROM THE WEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM SHOULD

RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVIER THAN NORMAL PRECIP TO OCCUR W-NW OF THE

TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIP

OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF

STILL FAVOR A SURFACE LOW TRACK THAT HUGS THE NC COAST...THUS EXPECT

BULK OF HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL

WILL EXIST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR A SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY PRECIP

ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TOUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET.

IN BETWEEN THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE PRECIP MINIMUM WHICH MAY BE

ACROSS OUR COASTAL PLAIN/FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. ALL IN ALL

WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT BUT

TRY TO DEPICT HEAVIEST PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT FAVOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS

INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF (ISENTROPIC LIFT) THEN SHIFT EMPHASIS

TO THE NW HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

The shaft is great with this event, padwan... .25" is my Widrecast for Orange county, nc....

You are too generous. A tenth or less. I've seen this game played out before. We'll get a couple showers during the middle, maybe even a briefly moderate one to make us think that we'll actually get decent rain, and then otherwise just foggy and misty.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Found out this morning that the 12z NAM is the start of the new version of NAM. Supposedly it is seeing this event much better than its predecessor.

If thats the case I'll come back in 72 hours to see how well it verifies. It's mythical wheelhouse due to Hi-Res is supose to be under 48 inside 24 if I remeber correctly. So this will be a good test to see how well it does 72 hours out. Thanks for pointing this out.

For reference heres the 12znam 10/18/11 output:

12znamp72int072.gif

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