strongwxnc Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Yup I posted at 288 (but hitting a football game that weekend in Boone, so I will be following the 29th time frame closely) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Hey, Robert! What batteries did you end up getting for your remotes? I'm going to have to get some new rechargeables for the winter. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Hey, Robert! What batteries did you end up getting for your remotes? I'm going to have to get some new rechargeables for the winter. Tony I think you mean the camera? Got el cheapo rayovac rechargeables..they're the best I've tried so far, hold a charge much longer than duracell or energizer did. I thought it might have been the duracell charger, but apparently not. Still using it for the rayovacs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Snow Accumulations at 288 on the GFS. Pure Beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 You know those maps are bogus, right? Snow Accumulations at 288 on the GFS. Pure Beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 You know those maps are bogus, right? Happy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 ahh the first fantasy GFS flurries. Winter is almost here Looking forward to the colder weather this week. Way too hot today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Happy? 288 hours is a fantasy range. However, it is plausible for this to happen. The NC/TN border has seen some incredible snowfalls in November, and the Smoky Mountains have seen significant snow in late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 288 hours is a fantasy range. However, it is plausible for this to happen. The NC/TN border has seen some incredible snowfalls in November, and the Smoky Mountains have seen significant snow in late October. It's all done for kicks and giggles. We would all like that early season snow, but it's not real plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I think you mean the camera? Got el cheapo rayovac rechargeables..they're the best I've tried so far, hold a charge much longer than duracell or energizer did. I thought it might have been the duracell charger, but apparently not. Still using it for the rayovacs. Thanks! I've gotten a lot of charges out of the Tenergy batteries, but they are finally starting to run down quicker. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I have to head out for the day but this storm will be a big one...very nice by synoptic standards, and is about my all time fave to follow. Excellent digging longwave trough with an extremely tight thermal gradient (so far I'm wondering why the models don't go much deeper--and much more quickly with the developing Gulf/Southeast low) and a closing off and occluding system in the eastern Lakes region. This time we have a tropical connection, so there could be a lot of rain in eastern halves of Carolinas/southeast GA but if you follow the evolution of the 5h flow next 96 hours you can see how its ever slightly trending west, this may cut down on upslope snow potential if it gets too far west, but at the same time increase developing rain for the TEnn Valley and Apps/western Carolinas/N Ga even into Wednesday as a strong s/w digs. Wouldn't be suprised on Wed. for some graupel or small hail if instability is strong enough under some low topped convection somewhere near the Apps of east TN/NGA, Carolinas./sw VA. If this were Winter, with cold high banana positioned on both the east and west side of the Apps like we sometimes get, this would be a nice Winter storm on both sides of the Apps, and in different phases, with snow to ice, mixed zone, all snow zone and a heavy snow zone, cold 33 and rain zone, with upslope afterwards along with high winds. I'm pretty amazed at how many deep eastern troughs we're getting lately. And there's more showing up down into the next 10 and 15 days , throughout the month of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I like the fact that the NAM is back on the rain train for this storm. Hope this holds (been waffling bad): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 What about a screw-zone Robert??? I do hope it moves just a little more west over us, we're still pretty far behind on rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 It's all done for kicks and giggles. We would all like that early season snow, but it's not real plausible. It most certainly is for the higher elevations especially as you head into November. Knoxville heaviest snow ever was in November back in the 1950s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 GSP mentioned snow line dropping down to 3000' late Wednesday night via their aft discussion. Will most definetly make a late night or pre dawn hours snow chase to the Pkwy. My first one of the season was a bust (10/2) but hey at least there was at least a shot (0/1 on the season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 GSP mentioned snow line dropping down to 3000' late Wednesday night via their aft discussion. Will most definetly make a late night or pre dawn hours snow chase to the Pkwy. My first one of the season was a bust (10/2) but hey at least there was at least a shot (0/1 on the season). That sounds like a good plan. What part of the parkway were you thinking about? I could drive up to Clingman's, but I can see Mt. Leconte and Clingman's from my house anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Peaked out at 86° at KJNX (Smithfield) today. Car thermometer was registering 92°! I'm really hoping we'll get at least some of the current 100% forecast for overnight Tuesday. The last several events have underperformed terribly at this location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 That sounds like a good plan. What part of the parkway were you thinking about? I could drive up to Clingman's, but I can see Mt. Leconte and Clingman's from my house anyway. Oops. I always forget to post where along the Pkwy as I assume everyone knows my area; darn local mentality. I live in Cullowhee, so a hop and a skip up to 6053' is very easy for me (30 min from house at 2021' to 6053') at Richland Balsam Overlook. I might migrate over to the Smokies but im looking at another 30 min to reach that section, so maybe not. I have a few viewers who are holding an anniversary party of sorts at the Pisgah Inn Wednesday night. So they will be able to shoot some pics off as well. Looking forward to seeing my 1st flakes of the season. It's been since May 15th of this yr since I last saw snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 This storm is/will be, a beast and deserves its own thread, but I guess I'll put my thoughts in here til someone makes a seperate one (if). First , the 18z GFS is looking like the 12 z ECMWF and the slight west trend continues. Rain will ramp up QUICK this time tomorrow as strong divergence , a strong jetstreak exits overhead, strong shortwave begins negative tilt in the Southeast (extremely far for October!), and captures the tropical moisture in the eastern Gulf. To the immediate west of the Gulf system, I'm afraid there will a sharp cutoff to the rain axis, somewhere in central or western/southwest GA region, as points north and east of there experience an explosion of rain late tomorrow...just the way the dynamics of this are working out. The GFS and ECMWF have quick hitting 1" rain totals in the western Carolinas as the 2 systems are morphing , deepening cyclogenesis and 2 parts to the moisture plume..one along and east of the tropical moisture, and a developing comma head type rains that joins with the incoming Tenn/Al shortwave..probably joining forces in north GA or western SC. The Carolinas get hammered quickly tomorrow night, and that spreads to all of VA by Wednesday morning. The ECMWF hammers western Carolinas and foothills of VA in short order with pockets of 1.5" to 2" rain amounts, most of which falls during 6 hours it looks like, but the GFS isn't quite as heavy, so its hard to say yet. I think some area of the Carolinas will get quick, intense, really intense rain, rivaling the Christmas Day storm a couple years ago. I'd say Columbia to Raleigh could be the jackpot in rain with this one around the Southeast, and in Florida as well. Dynamics and lift are super high for that region, even though theres a chance the axis could be more west, or even more east of there...we'll see how the models hone in on this later. There will be two sfc lows, one eastern NC and the other in KY by midday Wednesday, but the almost 150mph jetstreak screaming through Georgia and the Carolinas could enhance some kind of convection or strong band at some point Wednesday, meanwhile thicknesses in TN are crashing quickly as the digging trough dives anomalously far south. Amazing for October really. Then the models have the storm centered and cutoff over northwest Ohio by Thursday morning. Snow levels have moved into the mtns of TN and NC and southern West Va by that time, but right now I question the wind direction. Usually, a storm that far west longitude will have surface winds too westerly for our Southern Apps to get a significant upslope snow...but yet the GFS does make it snow there for almost until Friday morning. One thing to keep an eye on will be wind directions at the surface and up to 850 for the upslope components...and the models aren't quite there yet in showing a real significant event, but a few miles shift east bound would be a bigger deal. The moisture should bank easily along and west of the Apps Thursday, the question is winds speed and direction. Outside the mountains, pretty stout winds, and as with all cold core upper lows in Fall and Spring, interesting things can happen. Height lines go down to 546 in TN and NC, pretty low for sure, so if low topped convection pops ahead of any meso feature on Wednesday in TN, GA and the Carolinas, funny stuff can fall, like hail, graupel, and get your cams ready for an interesting sunset later Wednesday and probably again Thursday about everywhere. All in all, very exciting and fun storm to watch unfold. Like I said, give us this setup in Winter time, and I could see this being a major Winter storm on widespread basis, similar to Jan 1996. I guess time will tell if the active stream continues to unload on us for December and January, when the snow geese will be very thick on the forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 the sc/nc coast looks to get dry slotted. 997 mb low offshore is impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I take back what I said about southern/sw GA getting dryslotted. The RUC has it clearly heading nw from just west of Tampa and western Florida, so a decent soaking is probably going to encompass areas like southern half of GA and work north from there. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F18%2F2011+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=700_rh_ht&pdesc=&model=RUC&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M and the center is still well down in the Gulf by 18 hours, so I think this will be a drought buster (almost!) for a huge part of GA and Carolinas, but they are tricky because they can split in 2 distinct large blobs of rain, and thats hard to call from this far out. Tonights runs will probably capture the moisture in the gulf better as well as how the digging trough picks it up. Its a thing of beauty in my opinion...wonder why this thread isn't jumping yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Thanks Robert. It's got my interest thats for sure. Wonder if we get a named storm before everything gets morphed together. Looking mighty impressive in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 This is an amazing storm for October. I'm really liking how many deep eastern troughs, and cad events to this point. Good sign for the coming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I take back what I said about southern/sw GA getting dryslotted. The RUC has it clearly heading nw from just west of Tampa and western Florida, so a decent soaking is probably going to encompass areas like southern half of GA and work north from there. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M and the center is still well down in the Gulf by 18 hours, so I think this will be a drought buster (almost!) for a huge part of GA and Carolinas, but they are tricky because they can split in 2 distinct large blobs of rain, and thats hard to call from this far out. Tonights runs will probably capture the moisture in the gulf better as well as how the digging trough picks it up. Its a thing of beauty in my opinion...wonder why this thread isn't jumping yet? Yea, it's gonna be tough to know who is going to get in the screw zone until we are able to watch the radar trends tomorrow. And this should be a fun, widespread rain event for the SE and yet this thread is dead as can be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Yea, it's gonna be tough to know who is going to get in the screw zone until we are able to watch the radar trends tomorrow. And this should be a fun, widespread rain event for the SE and yet this thread is dead as can be! fascinating system to me...but I'm here year round and love all kinds of weather. The NAM is out to about 30 hours and has no suprises...I'm surprised between hours 18 and 24 how quickly the rain lurches in GA and western Carolinas, but the heaviest looks a smidge east of 85...roughly AHN to CLT on the NAM. So there could be a razor thin cutoff just west of the main batch, but also, the next wave is coming in and will generate rain in its own right. All in all, I think CAE to RDU has the best solid hit of heaviest rains probably, and possibly the coast as well, unless something funny happens and it splits in 2 or 3 different sections, or convection does a robbing number. Edit..nam has about 1.75 to 2" from near CAE to RDU. So hopefully that works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 its becoming obvious the models are just now catching on to all that rich moisture in the Gulf that is about to catapult right into Georgia and the CArolinas, then up the East coast and get pulled west under the cut off. We don't exactly see this often. I'd almost bet a million bucks the rain is going to overperform on this for a huge chunk of Ga and Carolinas..hard to say exactly who yet, but with that kind of juicy moisture , and the strong, and very deep trough and dynamics (plus check out the incredible thickness packing at just 24 hours out!), then something big is probably going to happen. I haven't been this excited over a storm in ages. Esp. excited for the folks in GA and central SC and NC that really need the rain. The coast could end up with 4" if that second and third round develops like the NAM is showing...and I'm pretty sure they don't want that much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Thanks Robert. It's got my interest thats for sure. Wonder if we get a named storm before everything gets morphed together. Looking mighty impressive in the GOM. Doubt they name this unless it really, really comes together in the next 12 or so before shearing kills any chance of a true tropical system. Does look rather nice right now but long range Key West radar doesnt show me anything to get all excited about, if there is any kind of llc with this its on the SW corner of the convection and its almost to the 50-70 mph shear over Florida which is gonna kill any chances of it becoming a true tropical system or IMO even a sub tropical system, gonna be a hell of a storm though. Still it one of the better looking blobs in the GOM this year ( which in of itself is sad actually lol) http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=byx&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 its becoming obvious the models are just now catching on to all that rich moisture in the Gulf that is about to catapult right into Georgia and the CArolinas, then up the East coast and get pulled west under the cut off. We don't exactly see this often. I'd almost bet a million bucks the rain is going to overperform on this for a huge chunk of Ga and Carolinas..hard to say exactly who yet, but with that kind of juicy moisture , and the strong, and very deep trough and dynamics (plus check out the incredible thickness packing at just 24 hours out!), then something big is probably going to happen. I haven't been this excited over a storm in ages. Esp. excited for the folks in GA and central SC and NC that really need the rain. The coast could end up with 4" if that second and third round develops like the NAM is showing...and I'm pretty sure they don't want that much rain. Robert it is good to see you posting frequently again! It think it is so quiet around here because it is still too early for most of the snow hounds to start lurking around. I'm pretty pumped to watch things unfold over the next 36 hours. Great primer for the winter! Hopefully this is just the beginning to an active and stormy 5 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 its becoming obvious the models are just now catching on to all that rich moisture in the Gulf that is about to catapult right into Georgia and the CArolinas, then up the East coast and get pulled west under the cut off. We don't exactly see this often. I'd almost bet a million bucks the rain is going to overperform on this for a huge chunk of Ga and Carolinas..hard to say exactly who yet, but with that kind of juicy moisture , and the strong, and very deep trough and dynamics (plus check out the incredible thickness packing at just 24 hours out!), then something big is probably going to happen. I haven't been this excited over a storm in ages. Esp. excited for the folks in GA and central SC and NC that really need the rain. The coast could end up with 4" if that second and third round develops like the NAM is showing...and I'm pretty sure they don't want that much rain. I'm just not sure Alabama and West GA gets that much rain. I get the feeling most of AL and GA will get shafted with the bulk of rain in GA in South and East GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I'm just not sure Alabama and West GA gets that much rain. I get the feeling most of AL and GA will get shafted with the bulk of rain in GA in South and East GA. it does look like on all the models a quick and sharp cutoff very near the Al/GA border, and especially south of 20 in that zone. Because first the moisture will pull north tomorrow afternoon, and that first part could miss the southern part of Ala, and by the time the next shortwave digs in all the moisture could be used up, but scattered showers could redevelop about anytime. More to the north though over n. Ala and GA. I think. A squall line might develop , its doubtful, but the trough overall is hanging so far back to the west that it could tap the Gulf again sometime early Wed, which would be a surprise bonus rain in Ala and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.