Dark Energy Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Latest guidance have the strong upper low to our west swinging thru this afternoon and going -tilted. Great shear and only modest instability, but soundings showing possible breaks in the overcast so that may lead to more CAPE. Strong forcing will be present from the cold fropa and the -tilted upper trof moving thru. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Excellent observation.Severe weather at this time of yer is nearly 100% dependent on dynamics rather than heating and this is a perfect case of it.Actually,severe weather outbreaks with a setup like this verify more this time of year than days in June/July where despite having a seemingly perfect setup,things can and often do go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Nice post...NAM has a big time shortwave through here at 18z tomorrow afternoon. 750-1000j/kg of surface cape will be more than enough given this setup aloft. Nice mini warm sector type deal too...with the temperatures rising into the mid 70's by afternoon..owing to a nice southerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 ...NORTHEAST INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... EJECTION OF THE MIDWEST UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DIVERGENCE/FORCED ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY SUPPORTING MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS. CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD MITIGATE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...PARTICULARLY NE OF PA/NJ/SERN NY AS SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY PERSISTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE AREAL EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM AND DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Good call. Slight risk was issued at 845 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 sign of things to come later on today? nasty looking cell offshore of cape may: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Decent very small cell headed toward me in New Brunswick. Probably just a burst of very heavy rain, but we'll see in about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 NJZ006-104-106>108-NYZ072-074-075-176-291615- EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-HUDSON-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)-WESTERN UNION- 1119 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT HUDSON...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...QUEENS...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX...SOUTHERN BERGEN AND UNION COUNTIES... AT 1114 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTH BRUNSWICK TOWNSHIP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1 AND A HALF INCHES AN HOUR...IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. THIS COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS... AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2215 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/SERN NY/NRN NJ/SRN VT/SWRN NH/WRN MA/CT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 291522Z - 291645Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS ERN PA/SRN NY/NRN NJ OVER THE NEXT HOUR...AND SPREAD NNEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. CORRESPONDING RAMP-UP IN SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXPANSIVE -- BUT LOCALLY BROKEN -- CLOUD COVER ACROSS ERN PA AND INTO SERN NY...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HEATING THROUGH THE BROKEN CLOUDS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IS RESULTING IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION -- WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE RAPID APPROACH OF A LOBE OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW -- WITH THE VORT CENTER EVIDENT ACROSS WRN PA AND MOVING QUICKLY NEWD WITH TIME. AS THIS VORT LOBE SHIFTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND...CONVECTION -- FUELED BY THE DESTABILIZING AIRMASS -- SHOULD EXPAND BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS FORECAST A COMPACT 50-PLUS KT H5 JET ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE -- CONFIRMED BY KCCX /STATE COLLEGE PA/ VWP -- TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PROVIDING SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION WITHIN DEVELOPING STORMS. WHILE LAPSE RATES REMAIN MODEST PER MORNING RAOBS WHICH WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS APPARENT -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN GROW UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS THREAT -- COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO -- SUGGESTS THAT WW WILL BE REQUIRED...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THE LUNCHTIME HOUR. ..GOSS.. 09/29/2011 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 WUUS51 KOKX 291547 SVROKX NJC003-013-017-039-NYC005-047-061-081-085-291645- /O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0104.110929T1547Z-110929T1645Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1147 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... BRONX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... SOUTHEASTERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL 1245 PM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 You can see the cell coming right up from the south http://www.accuweather.com/us/radar/sir/pa_/radar.asp?play=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Looks like it might stay just west of the city no? Hard to tell exactly which way it's moving You can see the cell coming right up from the south http://www.accuweath...r.asp?play=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Latest OBS from EWR: SPECI KEWR 291619Z 26024G32KT 1/4SM R04R/1600VP6000FT +TSRAGS FG BKN004 OVC010CB 21/18 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 26032/1618 SFC VIS 1/2 TSB04RAB11GSB18 CONS LTGICCCCG OHD TS OHD MOV NE P0025 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 I'm down in port Elizabeth one of the worst storms I've seen in quite some time. 50 mph winds, bad lightning, and flooding everywhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Some thunderstorms going on here with heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 a storm just missed me to the north...Heard some thunder and saw some distant lightning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 09/29/2011 0100 PM Bergenfield, Bergen County. Hail m0.75 inch, reported by trained spotter. Trained spotter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 09/29/2011 0100 PM Bergenfield, Bergen County. Hail m0.75 inch, reported by trained spotter. Trained spotter just drove thru that storm, i didnt see hail but the rain was blinding and there was frequent CG lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 I am on the bus and was caught up in the storm coming out of the Lincoln Tunnel back in NJ....I did hear some pinging, but the big issue was that 495 going into route 3 was all flooded! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 09/29/2011 1255 PM Englewood Cliffs, Bergen County. Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by law enforcement. Many trees and large branches down 09/29/2011 1255 PM Englewood Cliffs, Bergen County. Hail e0.88 inch, reported by law enforcemen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Angry looking clouds rolling in quickly from the ssw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Wow just got almost as dark as night quickly! Winds are picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=EWR&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=TR0&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Pretty good squall line setting up, and wont miss too many people, extends from NY State all the way down to south Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 A fairly decent storm in my area. Very heavy rain for about 10 mins. with the highest wind gust around 35 mph. There was also quite a bit of thunder. Temp dropped 8-10 degrees so I'm concerned the storm stabilized the atmosphere enough to prohibit future storms from developing. Overall I'd rate this storm: C+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 A nice little cell just popped up over perth amboy. i hope it wont disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 CG lightning with some moderate rain now. Edit: Heavy downpours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Solid line, getting stronger just as its passing the city. Should be nice for Queens, Brooklyn and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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