WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2011 Author Share Posted November 6, 2011 DCA didn't get there...not even that close really. IAD got into the mid 20s and BWI hit 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 How can it be 30 in North Potomac, 33 here, at 11PM, and still be 44 at DCA? Thats just unfair, even inside the beltway probably reaches the upper 20's tonight in spots. One PWS up by Langley got into the upper 20s, but we really flattened overnight. My low was 37.3°. The nearest VP2 is a mile away and got to 30.0°. Here's an indication of how much microclimate matters in calm conditions. This is the view from my backyard this morning - the soccer field is covered with frost, my yard has absolutely none. Elevation difference? About 25 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 This is the view from my backyard this morning - the soccer field is covered with frost, my yard has absolutely none. Elevation difference? About 25 ft. At least you were spared from shoveling the sidewalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Yes! You should feel good. Second place isn't a bad showing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Looks like H2O's bondfires did the trick One PWS up by Langley got into the upper 20s, but we really flattened overnight. My low was 37.3°. The nearest VP2 is a mile away and got to 30.0°. Here's an indication of how much microclimate matters in calm conditions. This is the view from my backyard this morning - the soccer field is covered with frost, my yard has absolutely none. Elevation difference? About 25 ft. Wow thats incredible, you'd think the atmosphere would be well mixed? Somehow made it to 28.7 here and I'm right next to the to the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 You should feel good. Second place isn't a bad showing at all. Losing to you is much more palatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 1320541146[/url]' post='1097597']No, only DCA hasn't hit. RIC hit a few days ago. Okay, I missed RIC. I assumed it didn't hit yet. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 At least you were spared from shoveling the sidewalk. Felt like I shoveled 12" of leaves today. And yet somehow, most of the bastards are still on the trees. Wow thats incredible, you'd think the atmosphere would be well mixed? Somehow made it to 28.7 here and I'm right next to the to the Potomac. Mornings with calm winds and clear skies are not generally not well-mixed. This will be my first winter with the VP2, and it'll be really interesting to see how cold it really can go sitting up on our little ridge. At least the frost/no-frost has given me further confirmation that the readings are correct and there is no siting issue (also have a cheaper wireless thermometer that sits in the backyard, very closely tracks the Davis). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Losing to you is much more palatable. Of course, I was kidding. Next weekend has a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 You got it. Except if it's on 11/15, then H2O and nw balt wx will tie. The high yesterday at BWI was 54F, which means nw balt wx would win since his tiebreaker entry is 56 and H2O's is 58. Time to call it? And if not Friday, where oh where is the DCA freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 Who knows...models have been hinting at a decent cold shot post-Thanksgiving (but still transient), so could still happen this month. Either way, I think nw baltimore wx has it pretty locked up. I'll have to look and see if anyone else could possibly win if DCA goes really late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Although I'll wait until DCA actually hits 32F to "officially" announce it and post scores, etc..., nw baltimore wx has won the contest since no one else can beat him (her?), regardless of when DCA hits. 3 people posted later dates for DCA than nw baltimore wx, but not by a sufficient margin to overcome his (her?) lead. I think DCA has a pretty good chance to hit this Friday or Saturday morning, since most of the surrounding area should be able to comfortably drop into the 20s (at least on Friday). If not then, probably looking at a December date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Although I'll wait until DCA actually hits 32F to "officially" announce it and post scores, etc..., nw baltimore wx has won the contest since no one else can beat him (her?), regardless of when DCA hits. 3 people posted later dates for DCA than nw baltimore wx, but not by a sufficient margin to overcome his (her?) lead. I think DCA has a pretty good chance to hit this Friday or Saturday morning, since most of the surrounding area should be able to comfortably drop into the 20s (at least on Friday). If not then, probably looking at a December date. 2nd, 3rd place? Looks like my RIC and DCA dates will be head on. I think my DCA guess in early October was pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Although I'll wait until DCA actually hits 32F to "officially" announce it and post scores, etc..., nw baltimore wx has won the contest since no one else can beat him (her?), regardless of when DCA hits. 3 people posted later dates for DCA than nw baltimore wx, but not by a sufficient margin to overcome his (her?) lead. I think DCA has a pretty good chance to hit this Friday or Saturday morning, since most of the surrounding area should be able to comfortably drop into the 20s (at least on Friday). If not then, probably looking at a December date. Thanks for the unofficial win, and incidentally, I am a he. I guess I don't post enough though, huh? For the most part, the picks were luck, but as much as I wouldn't put a bet on the details of a long range model, the gfs wasn't bad when I looked at it in early October to make my guesses. I used the long range to get a general idea of the timing for cold front passages, extrapolated beyond the 15 day hoping the pattern would continue, and then used a little climo for DCA since it's always tough to get a freeze there relative to the general area (BB acting surprised when DCA was 15 degrees warmer than his backyard was pretty funny). You might notice that my picks are on 10 day cycles, and I got really lucky when RIC only hit 33 in late October. If DCA gets to freezing late this week, my picks will look ridiculously good on paper, but I make no pretenses. It was luck. Using the same unorthodox method, I think the first snow chance might be with the storm around the 16th. A non-scientific guess and likely wrong, but at least now you know why I spend most of my time reading and not posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Thanks for the unofficial win, and incidentally, I am a he. I guess I don't post enough though, huh? For the most part, the picks were luck, but as much as I wouldn't put a bet on the details of a long range model, the gfs wasn't bad when I looked at it in early October to make my guesses. I used the long range to get a general idea of the timing for cold front passages, extrapolated beyond the 15 day hoping the pattern would continue, and then used a little climo for DCA since it's always tough to get a freeze there relative to the general area (BB acting surprised when DCA was 15 degrees warmer than his backyard was pretty funny). You might notice that my picks are on 10 day cycles, and I got really lucky when RIC only hit 33 in late October. If DCA gets to freezing late this week, my picks will look ridiculously good on paper, but I make no pretenses. It was luck. Using the same unorthodox method, I think the first snow chance might be with the storm around the 16th. A non-scientific guess and likely wrong, but at least now you know why I spend most of my time reading and not posting. Hey you know at heart I deserved the win, everyone was in the 20's that morning except DCA. Forgot how potent the microclimate actually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Climo Tho it's windy and temp isn't going anywhere so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Climo Tho it's windy and temp isn't going anywhere so far Wind is ok as long as it stops at some point. The advection knocks down the UHI a bit. 37 here, should be my first freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Hey you know at heart I deserved the win, everyone was in the 20's that morning except DCA. Forgot how potent the microclimate actually is. Horseshoes and hand grenades, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Doesn't look like DCA's going to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Doesn't look like DCA's going to get there. Nope. Finally got it here. Not as satisfying without a nice frost, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 KDCA: 35 KVPS: 36 Felt like home this morning down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 KDCA: 35 KVPS: 36 Felt like home this morning down here. I see a 34 at KDCA -- http://www.erh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KDCA.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 Finally DCA had a freeze (officially on Saturday) and has had one yesterday and today as well. So, we can kill this contest. Winner: nw baltimore wx - 34 points Runner-up: H2O - 38 points 3rd place: Midlo Snow Maker - 40 points Midlo had IAD and BWI dead-on, while H2O missed both by 1 day and nw balt wx missed both by 2 days. But nw balt wx's better RIC forecast was the difference over Midlo and his DCA forecast bested H2O. The closest forecasts for DCA were by TeaysValley and LongRanger, both missing by "only" 18 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Dang. too bad about DCA. 2nd still isnt bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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