18z GFS 12/8/10

[mitchnick]

4 days before 12/19/09, every model had the storm passing well south of DCA/BWI

we seem to forget that although models sniff out the threats 5-7 days in advance, they never, ever get the details right at that range

odds don't favor an all snow event for I95 corridor, but I think we all knew that

but what the models are reasonably suggesting is that there is a chance at some accumulating snow for I95 from DCA N & E, whether at the start or at the end, and that chance looks to be increasing with each run

on 12/8 in any year, I'm pretty happy with that as most should be on the coastal plain

anyway, 4 day bulls eyes don't really work out much better than 5 day ones, so no one should be doing any victory laps yet

[yoda]

45 mins or so till the 21z SREFs

[Analog96]

  On 12/9/2010 at 12:55 AM, yoda said:

45 mins or so till the 21z SREFs

1) They don't go out far enough.

2) With the GFS further East, they'll go East.

[yoda]

  On 12/9/2010 at 12:58 AM, Analog96 said:

1) They don't go out far enough.

2) With the GFS further East, they'll go East.

It will at least give us an early hint as to what the 0z NAM/GFS might do... as well as 5h placement and the such. True, the time period will be after the end (87 hrs) but it will give us at least a peek.

[Dr No]

I'm glad to see the 18Z GFS southeast. For whatever reason, even the new GFS, often gets surpressed at day 3 and 4. A good example was the storm that brought the severe weather in mid-november. If this run was amped up it would have lent good creedence to today's Euro. I think the 0Z GFS will be west of the 18Z, but perhaps still ho-hum.

[weathervswife]

18Z NAM was well west and north of 18Z GFS at 84 hours and much juicier. Maybe it's a timing issue, but I might also be Sylvester Stallone in the Boxing Hall of Fame.

[Ji]

6 snowstorms on these maps

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf108.html