stormtracker Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Out to 78..heights are just a smidge lower along the east coast...trof not as sharp as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 lol @the GFS. At 96 hours, markedly different from 12z, colder in the east..less of a phase with the PV. All sorts of strange things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The GFS has a shortwave over Pennsylvania earlier in the run that completely de-amplifies the heights over the Northeast. The main shortwave is also disorganized and slides way southeast. Very odd run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 lol @the GFS. At 96 hours, markedly different from 12z, colder in the east..less of a phase with the PV. All sorts of strange things It is very odd run. The temps are colder but the 850 low is farther north albeit weaker. If it were to occur we'd only get light precipitation in the mid atlantic. I think we need to wait unitl the energy with the shortwave actually gets into the u.s. This run looks weird and certainly is miles away from the ukmet which gave us our best shot for a decent snow. This might give us something at onset especially back where you used to live before you decided to live in a snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 It is very odd run. The temps are colder but the 850 low is farther north albeit weaker. If it were to occur we'd only get light precipitation in the mid atlantic. I think we need to wait unitl the energy with the shortwave actually gets into the u.s. This run looks weird and certainly is miles away from the ukmet which gave us our best shot for a decent snow. This might give us something at onset especially back where you used to live before you decided to live in a snow hole. Yeah, I'd definitely wait till 0z before reading anything into this...but it does make you wonder if the UKMET may be on to something...or on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It is very odd run. The temps are colder but the 850 low is farther north albeit weaker. If it were to occur we'd only get light precipitation in the mid atlantic. I think we need to wait unitl the energy with the shortwave actually gets into the u.s. This run looks weird and certainly is miles away from the ukmet which gave us our best shot for a decent snow. This might give us something at onset especially back where you used to live before you decided to live in a snow hole. When will the shortwave get into the U.S? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yeah, I'd definitely wait till 0z before reading anything into this...but it does make you wonder if the UKMET may be on to something...or on something. Don't forget the DGEX..which as an extension of the NAM shows some major back-end snows as a result of the developing coastal low on the offshore front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It looks like March 8th 2005 on this run. There's a nice secondary post frontal wave that hits NYC and NE with backlash snows. GFS has essentially put more energy at the base of the troff. This is where we can use some sampling of the shortwave to determing if this is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Don't forget the DGEX..which as an extension of the NAM shows some major back-end snows as a result of the developing coastal low on the offshore front. Careful with that, the DGEX showed some major banding behind the storm but that only developed very late in response to the low bombing to 955 mb over CT. If you honestly think this low is going to bomg to category 3 hurricane status then perhaps that solution is realistic but it is very unlikely otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yeah, I'd definitely wait till 0z before reading anything into this...but it does make you wonder if the UKMET may be on to something...or on something. Based on the 18Z gfs, it would imply the ukmet was on something all right. As to when the shortwave will get into the conus, I'm guessing at another 48 to 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Something is just off this run. Its like it cant decide where to focus development so the result is just a diffuse LP center until reaching the NE coast. This is definately not the final solution, and IMO suggests the GFS doesnt really have a clue right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Based on the 18Z gfs, it would imply the ukmet was on something all right. As to when the shortwave will get into the conus, I'm guessing at another 48 to 54 hours. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It looks like March 8th 2005 on this run. There's a nice secondary post frontal wave that hits NYC and NE with backlash snows. GFS has essentially put more energy at the base of the troff. This is where we can use some sampling of the shortwave to determing if this is correct. i think that's sorta key if we want a better solution in the east. i noticed yesterday there were two maxes in the 500 energy with the gfs keying in the first. either way if it wasnt the 18z gfs (yeah i've seen the charts) this might be some sign that the "weenie" ideas while hopeful were not totally outlandish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 18z GFS ensemble mean takes it from interior NC/SC border to just E of SBY to near Block Island, RI (E of LI)...the mean would have it cold enough for mostly frozen about 50 mi NW of the I-95 cities. This is a mean however, and I'm sure the spread is huge. It certainly is in a lot of disagreement with the 12z Euro ensembles which took the low a good 400-500 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The GFS keeping with its theme of weaker, more east, the EC keeping its theme of stronger, more west, this is becoming the gunfight at the OK corral. One of them is going down big time. It will be hard to put much faith in one of them after this is over. One quick model question for anyone who might answer....what leads to these types of differences in the models. Are they markedly different in their structure or setup, or is this a matter of data collection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Enjoy the gamut of the individual ensembles... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/f108.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/f114.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/f120.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/f126.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 P009 would be likely the largest snowfall ever for most of the mid Atlantic. For what its worth, of course, which isn't much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I would wait until 0z before even thinking of snow in I-95. The 18z yesterday played this same game but then took it back west at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I would wait until 0z before even thinking of snow in I-95. The 18z yesterday played this same game but then took it back west at 0z. 2 steps east and 1 step west=1 step east....only half serious with that one but its seemed the off hr runs are much further SE but since its first showed a more SE track the 0z and 12z seem to have shifted slightly east, though not as strongly as the 6z and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 If 00Z keeps this up I might officially be interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah, this is some odd @&%# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 18z GFS ensemble mean takes it from interior NC/SC border to just E of SBY to near Block Island, RI (E of LI)...the mean would have it cold enough for mostly frozen about 50 mi NW of the I-95 cities. This is a mean however, and I'm sure the spread is huge. It certainly is in a lot of disagreement with the 12z Euro ensembles which took the low a good 400-500 miles west. Does anyone have an accuracy chart for the individual ensemble members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah, this is some odd @&%# That is not really that odd. The storm rounds the base of a trough, then turns up the coast. What's more odd is what happens when it gets way up North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 That is not really that odd. The storm rounds the base of a trough, then turns up the coast. What's more odd is what happens when it gets way up North. Yeah I got that, what I was referring to as odd is the flippy flop of this thing. Its moved 500 miles in 3 runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 If 00Z keeps this up I might officially be interested. That's pretty much my benchmark. Derecho is right though, the off hour runs tend to give false hope while the main hour runs yank it back. It is rather interesting that most of the ensembles do have an offshore track. p009 is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah I got that, what I was referring to as odd is the flippy flop of this thing. Its moved 500 miles in 3 runs.. Yes, THAT is odd, and takes away from the confidence in this forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 That's pretty much my benchmark. Derecho is right though, the off hour runs tend to give false hope while the main hour runs yank it back. It is rather interesting that most of the ensembles do have an offshore track. p009 is ridiculous. There was a thread a few weeks ago that had some good information on the whole "00z & 12z runs are better than the 6z & 18z runs" and I think the conclusion was its just about the same when you average it out. I'll post a link in this post if I can find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 That's pretty much my benchmark. Derecho is right though, the off hour runs tend to give false hope while the main hour runs yank it back. It is rather interesting that most of the ensembles do have an offshore track. p009 is ridiculous. p009 is a wonderful DREAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 18z GFS Ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 18z GFS Ensemble mean. Hr 120 is even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.