blazess556 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 DCA +2.1 NYC +1.6 BOS +1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 BOS: +2.5 NYC: +2.2 DCA: +1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 BOS: +3.0 NYC: +2.8 DCA: +2.6 cumulative: 8.4F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 Crap You can still enter. You just get a 50% automatic point reduction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 i guess ill just throw some numbers out then since i've been in every month but this one DCA +1.5 NYC +2 BOS +2 thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 After four days ... contest anomalies (this month, changes are +0.7, +0.3, -0.1) ... DCA -10.2 NYC -5.1 BOS +3.8 anyone close to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Contest anomalies thru 7 days ... DCA ... -5.7 NYC ... -3.3 BOS ... +2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 BOS is a complete torch... maybe some cooling towards the end of the month. Potential for a 4-5 degree gradient between DCA and BOS. skier and litchfield are looking to cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 BOS is a complete torch... maybe some cooling towards the end of the month. Potential for a 4-5 degree gradient between DCA and BOS. skier and litchfield are looking to cash in! unfortunately I think the standard deviations will be large this month so I won't pick up many points on you even if I end up closer... of course it's still early so don't want to jinx myself but looking good so far. I regret not going with an even bigger gradient but I got cold feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 After 11 days ... contest anomalies: DCA ... -1.7 NYC ... +1.6 BOS ... +6.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 unfortunately I think the standard deviations will be large this month so I won't pick up many points on you even if I end up closer... of course it's still early so don't want to jinx myself but looking good so far. I regret not going with an even bigger gradient but I got cold feet. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 October forecasts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 After 11 days ... contest anomalies: DCA ... -1.7 NYC ... +1.6 BOS ... +6.3 those are some wild anomalies so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 After 11 days ... contest anomalies: DCA ... -1.7 NYC ... +1.6 BOS ... +6.3 for DCA, what station do you guys get your numbers from. Is it National DC or is it Dulles? cause your -1.7 doesn't match either of them. I got -2.0 for national and -1.9 for Dulles. Is it because they have a different base period than our contest? and for NYC we use Laguardia right? and I had 6.5 for BOS. Ooh ok I see that you adjust the totals, but even still the numbers don't add up right, I'm probably using the wrong climate sites for each city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 for DCA, what station do you guys get your numbers from. Is it National DC or is it Dulles? cause your -1.7 doesn't match either of them. I got -2.0 for national and -1.9 for Dulles. Is it because they have a different base period than our contest? and for NYC we use Laguardia right? and I had 6.5 for BOS. Ooh ok I see that you adjust the totals, but even still the numbers don't add up right, I'm probably using the wrong climate sites for each city. DCA is Wash National. NYC is Central Park. The contest is still based off of 71-00 norms, though the NWS sites have switched to 81-10. I'm pretty sure Roger converts the baseline before he posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 All of the above is correct. I convert and this month the factors are DCA ... add 0.7 NYC ... add 0.3 BOS ... sub 0.1 to convert what you see (1981-2010) to what we use here (1971-2000). This will presumably not be necessary beyond December. Each month has a somewhat different set of corrections but I listed them all somewhere near the end of the August thread. DCA seems to have warmed more than NYC which has generally warmed more than BOS which hasn't warmed much at all (in these past few months, we've only needed to do this since July). If you got a different result than me after converting, it might be because you had 12 days rather than 11? I double-check these before posting. And just for clarity, when I say add 0.7 for DCA and the baseline is negative, I mean add not increase the negative. Anyway, check this out as to method ... after 12 days DCA ... -1.8 ... converts to -1.1 ... today +11 (+10) ... estimated for 13th (converted) -0.3 NYC ... +1.5 ... converts to +1.8 ... today +3 (+3) ... estimated for 13th (converted) +1.9 BOS ... +6.3 ... converts to +6.2 ... today +5 (+5) ... estimated for 13th (converted) +6.1 (sometimes a midnight low reduces these "today" values, not seeing that potential today. That large signal early in the month is slowly fading out as DCA catches up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Not as dreadful an outcome as I had thought earlier if NYC can stay at +1.6 or lower... which looks like it could very well be lower as we start to get an idea of how the month will shape up. DCA probably going to end up below normal while Boston stays well above thanks to abnormally high moisture and warmer lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 After 16 days (half-way home) ... DCA +0.4 NYC +2.4 BOS +6.4 similar today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 After 20 days ... DCA +1.4 NYC +3.0 BOS +6.6 could see slight drops especially for BOS next 5-6 days, then some warming again, month converging on +2,+3,+5 type of finish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 After 20 days ... DCA +1.4 NYC +3.0 BOS +6.6 could see slight drops especially for BOS next 5-6 days, then some warming again, month converging on +2,+3,+5 type of finish? I would argue that DCA would more likely fall to +1 or less, but I agree on the other two cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 After 20 days ... DCA +1.4 NYC +3.0 BOS +6.6 could see slight drops especially for BOS next 5-6 days, then some warming again, month converging on +2,+3,+5 type of finish? I'd say closer to +1, +2, +5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Update through 23 days ... DCA .. +0.9 NYC .. +2.5 BOS .. +6.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Forecasted through the 27th: NYC: +2 Forecasted through the 31st: NYC: +1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Forecasted through the 27th: NYC: +2 Forecasted through the 31st: NYC: +1.1 Excellent. I'm screwed on Boston, but DCA and NYC might turn out pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Contest anomalies taking a plunge as snow or cold rain breaks out across the northeast today ... after 28 days with after today estimated in brackets DCA ... +0.8 (+0.2) NYC ... +1.5 (+0.9) BOS ... +4.7 (+4.2) Now looks like DCA may flip sign and NYC may sink to about zero, BOS to about 3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 With one day to go, the contest anomalies have tilted as follows: DCA ... -0.1 NYC ... +0.7 BOS ... +3.8 today looks a bit negative although not on the weekend scale, so prob'ly ending around -0.3, +0.4, +3.4 ?? trick or treat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Ugly. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 At least I nailed NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I believe these are the final contest values: DCA ... -0.4 NYC ... +0.5 BOS ... +3.5 (the anomalies for 1981-2010 are listed as -1.1, +0.2 and +3.6) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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