A-L-E-K Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 id guess it's small hail and not sleet, check those low level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 gorgeous (time sensitive) http://www.ssec.wisc...wisgifloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 should have checked the radar before starting to cut the grass.. pelted with ice pellets and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 "Sleet showers" or graupel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 "Sleet showers" or graupel? i'm guessing small hail/graupel 200-250 J/kg of sbcape, low level lapse rates around 9 and cold upper levels, warm surface = small hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i'm guessing small hail/graupel 200-250 J/kg of sbcape, low level lapse rates around 9 and cold upper levels, warm surface = small hail freezing levels down to 4kft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Good point guys, the official definition is refreezing rain drops for sleet, which isn't happening. It's technically small hail since these are small convective cells, but at the same time if the temp profile wasn't so cold it wouldn't be possible. When 850s are below 0° C I generally just consider hail to be a form of wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 A little off topic (I don't want to post in the NE threads). What do you think of the potential storm in the NE this weekend? Even if the thing bombs out, won't it be hard for snow to accumulate, except maybe the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Here in Milwaukee we have yet to have a frost either. It's very torturous for me b/c there have been 3 or 4 times when we were really close and even had frost advisories, yet just can't get it done near the lake. Allergies in late October sucks. Yeah as a fellow allergy sufferer I feel your pain. It looks like that'll end tonight but still it's weird considering I'm used to scraping the frost off at the beginning of the month I think the heavy rains of fall and very wet soils may be a contributing factor this year. Yeah but we really have been pretty warm this year, it was 70 degrees not too long ago really That is remarkable. It does look like you guys will snap that this week though. I'll be very shocked if it doesn't happen tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 A little off topic (I don't want to post in the NE threads). What do you think of the potential storm in the NE this weekend? Even if the thing bombs out, won't it be hard for snow to accumulate, except maybe the mountains? Nah. I've found that it really doesn't matter, as long as it's snowing hard enough, snow will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 A little off topic (I don't want to post in the NE threads). What do you think of the potential storm in the NE this weekend? Even if the thing bombs out, won't it be hard for snow to accumulate, except maybe the mountains? The big cities will probably be immunized from receiving snow because of the low level E wind off the warm waters. But you're not going to have to go too far inland for there to be a plastering of heavy wet snow. If the model depictions are right. Our turn will come soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The big cities will probably be immunized from receiving snow because of the low level E wind off the warm waters. But you're not going to have to go too far inland for there to be a plastering of heavy wet snow. If the model depictions are right. Our turn will come soon enough. Here's hoping. I can't help wondering if this will be another winter where everywhere south of us gets more snow and cold against the averages than we do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Here's hoping. I can't help wondering if this will be another winter where everywhere south of us gets more snow and cold against the averages than we do! That would make this the most un-Nina like Nina winter ever. Probability of that happening is very low. If we get screwed, the +snow/-temp anomalies will be to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A little off topic (I don't want to post in the NE threads). What do you think of the potential storm in the NE this weekend? Even if the thing bombs out, won't it be hard for snow to accumulate, except maybe the mountains? No need to be bitter my man, the NE will be getting buried before us NBD.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Already down to 33 here. Looks like mid 20s here tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thursday, October 27th: Hi: 52F Lo: 37F Overall Sky Conditions: Mostly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 14MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The big cities will probably be immunized from receiving snow because of the low level E wind off the warm waters. But you're not going to have to go too far inland for there to be a plastering of heavy wet snow. If the model depictions are right. Our turn will come soon enough. Just taking a quick look, it appears that low level winds turn offshore before precip shuts off (actually there's some fairly substantial precip being shown in some areas after the wind shift). I think there will be snow in the big cities in this setup. Accumulations are tricky...heaviest amounts should be just west but I could see at least some minor sloppy accumulations in the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 First frost of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just taking a quick look, it appears that low level winds turn offshore before precip shuts off (actually there's some fairly substantial precip being shown in some areas after the wind shift). I think there will be snow in the big cities in this setup. Accumulations are tricky...heaviest amounts should be just west but I could see at least some minor sloppy accumulations in the cities. Yeah, I didn't look too closely at it. Other years where there is an early season nor'easter (forget October, I'm talking November), you'll see the EC AFDs keep coastal areas all rain even though a cursory look at the storm would indicate mostly snow. It may be a bias that the models under forecast low level warmth being advected off the ocean. But yeah, if a more offshore track like the NAM verifies, keeping the winds more N/NNE, it could snow even in the big cities. Climo would have me bet against it, regardless of what the models are showing 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 First freeze. Growing season has ended. Have nothing to back this up scientifically speaking, but hopefully it accelerates some of the fall foliage. It's been lackluster so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Again, not even close to a frost much less freeze here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Second 32º or lower min temp for LAF (31º this morning). Yet, we're under a frost advisory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 First hard freeze of the season. 27 here early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I laughed a little at the freezing fog conditions at LAF this morning, it was totally clear on the east side, but there's some low fog rolling through my 'hood right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 28.5 degrees here this morning, first sub-30 temperature of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Since the theme has been frost/freeze, I'll continue that. MKE got down to 35, Timmerman 30, so I think we at least got our first frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 plenty of green trees on my block, i kind of like these drawn out falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 First freeze. Growing season has ended. Have nothing to back this up scientifically speaking, but hopefully it accelerates some of the fall foliage. It's been lackluster so far. Doesn't the change in foliage have more to do with the decreasing amount of sunlight as opposed to frost? This is why, I've always presumed, places like Ottawa and North Bay have their leaves change faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 accuweather mentioned some of the years in which the northeast saw a noticable snowfall in late October and they include October 1925,1979 and 2005. Not good news for those of us outside of the snow belts who like snow in these parts. I checked the data and 1925/26, 1979/80 and 2005/2006 were lousy in southern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 accuweather mentioned some of the years in which the northeast saw a noticable snowfall in late October and they include October 1925,1979 and 2005. Not good news for those of us outside of the snow belts who like snow in these parts. I checked the data and 1925/26, 1979/80 and 2005/2006 were lousy in southern Ontario. I might end up being wrong but I don't think looking at three years that had an October snow in the NE is worth enough to correlate it to winter in other regions. A lot of times a situation like that is just a perfect storm anyways and not indicative of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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