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October 2011 General Discussion/Obs


Chicago Storm

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Really nice day today, temps hovering in the 60's. Tomorrow looking to be fairly warm forecasted high of 75 tomorrow, with 20-30 mph winds. Still have NOT had our first freeze, which is extremely odd, the extended forecast shows no sign of one neither.

November in a week? What? More like an unofficial November.

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Really nice day today, temps hovering in the 60's. Tomorrow looking to be fairly warm forecasted high of 75 tomorrow, with 20-30 mph winds. Still have NOT had our first freeze, which is extremely odd, the extended forecast shows no sign of one neither.

November in a week? What? More like an unofficial November.

Chicago (O'Hare) hasn't had a freeze either...coldest so far is 34.

I imagine that downtown Chicago hasn't even dropped into the 30s yet.

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Chicago (O'Hare) hasn't had a freeze either...coldest so far is 34.

I imagine that downtown Chicago hasn't even dropped into the 30s yet.

Not downtown obviously, but MDW has had 4 readings in the 30's.

The first 32 or lower min has been sorta late the last couple of years at ORD, excluding 2009. In 2007 it was November 2...2008 it was October 28...and last year October 29.

If we're shooting for the latest 32 or lower min temp at ORD specifically, November 7th or later is your date. The latest, since 1959, was November 6, 1998. For giggles, the earliest at ORD was September 22...both in 1974 and 1995.

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DTX goes "S" word - crazy in the long term AFD :o

COMPARED TO TODAY AND AFTER TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN

NOTICEABLY COLDER FOR THE WEEK...AS POLAR JET DESCENDS INTO THE

CONUS AND GOOD COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND

THURSDAY. WILL ASSUME WAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL

TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS THE SPLIT FLOW JETS APPEAR TO BE

IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...WILL NEED TO TAKE A REAL CLOSE LOOK AT SNOW

MIXING IN...AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -3 TO -4 C BY THURSDAY. THE 00Z

EUROPEAN SHOWED THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CLIPPING US ON

THURSDAY...BUT 1000-850 M THICKNESS WERE PROGGED TO HOVER AROUND

1305 M...GETTING CLOSE...BUT NO CIGAR. EITHER WAY...A COLD AND RAW

DAY APPEARS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 40S

WITH BRISK NORTHEAST WIND. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY

GENERATE SUFFICIENT CAPES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON

THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONTAIN GRAUPEL WITH THE LOW FREEZING

LEVELS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM (CLIPPER TYPE) EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...WITH

POTENTIALLY ENOUGH COLD AIR AROUND FOR SNOW OR GRAUPEL TO MIX

IN...AS LATEST EUROPEAN INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS OF -5 C OR SLIGHTLY

COLDER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

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Amazing to see parts of western Nebraska/southeast Wyoming under a winter storm warning with current temps in the low to mid 70s. Some of those areas could pick up a foot of snow by Wednesday. I can't even fathom such an extreme change in conditions over such a short time. We've had some major temp swings in this area over the years, but 70s to a foot of snow in 36hrs would be very hard to do around here lol.

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Amazing to see parts of western Nebraska/southeast Wyoming under a winter storm warning with current temps in the low to mid 70s. Some of those areas could pick up a foot of snow by Wednesday. I can't even fathom such an extreme change in conditions over such a short time. We've had some major temp swings in this area over the years, but 70s to a foot of snow in 36hrs would be very hard to do around here lol.

Denver hit 80 today and expecting snow tomorrow night!

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Amazing to see parts of western Nebraska/southeast Wyoming under a winter storm warning with current temps in the low to mid 70s. Some of those areas could pick up a foot of snow by Wednesday. I can't even fathom such an extreme change in conditions over such a short time. We've had some major temp swings in this area over the years, but 70s to a foot of snow in 36hrs would be very hard to do around here lol.

How about 48 hours? Though of course not in the 70's beforehand, but a string of 50+ in late Jan, plus a severe wx outbreak...and then 23" of snow a couple of days later. Almost heaven. :guitar:

1967-01-21	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	50.0	35.0	0	0	0
1967-01-22	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	56.0	39.0	0.005	0	0
1967-01-23	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	59.0	46.0	0	0	0
1967-01-24	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	65.0	44.0	0.09	0	0
1967-01-25	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	54.0	30.0	0	0	0
1967-01-26	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	32.0	28.0	1.66	16.4	0.005
1967-01-27	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	31.0	21.0	0.74	6.6	20

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How about 48 hours? Though of course not in the 70's beforehand, but a string of 50+ in late Jan, plus a severe wx outbreak...and then 23" of snow a couple of days later. Almost heaven. :guitar:

1967-01-21	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	50.0	35.0	0	0	0
1967-01-22	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	56.0	39.0	0.005	0	0
1967-01-23	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	59.0	46.0	0	0	0
1967-01-24	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	65.0	44.0	0.09	0	0
1967-01-25	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	54.0	30.0	0	0	0
1967-01-26	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	32.0	28.0	1.66	16.4	0.005
1967-01-27	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	31.0	21.0	0.74	6.6	20

Man that would be the quintessential :weenie: event lol.

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How about 48 hours? Though of course not in the 70's beforehand, but a string of 50+ in late Jan, plus a severe wx outbreak...and then 23" of snow a couple of days later. Almost heaven. :guitar:

1967-01-21	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	50.0	35.0	0	0	0
1967-01-22	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	56.0	39.0	0.005	0	0
1967-01-23	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	59.0	46.0	0	0	0
1967-01-24	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	65.0	44.0	0.09	0	0
1967-01-25	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	54.0	30.0	0	0	0
1967-01-26	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	32.0	28.0	1.66	16.4	0.005
1967-01-27	111577	CHICAGO MIDWAY AP 3SW	31.0	21.0	0.74	6.6	20

warm ground ruined that event [/sarc]

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Man that would be the quintessential :weenie: event lol.

I can't think of a better scenario.

warm ground ruined that event [/sarc]

I've always wondered how much snow fell with that storm at the University of Chicago site. 2.74" liquid, but unfortunately no snow measurements via the Utah Climate site.

1967-01-26	111572	CHICAGO UNIV	32.0	28.0	1.94	9999	9999
1967-01-27	111572	CHICAGO UNIV	31.0	20.0	0.8	9999	9999

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I can't think of a better scenario.

I've always wondered how much snow fell with that storm at the University of Chicago site. 2.74" liquid, but unfortunately no snow measurements via the Utah Climate site.

1967-01-26	111572	CHICAGO UNIV	32.0	28.0	1.94	9999	9999
1967-01-27	111572	CHICAGO UNIV	31.0	20.0	0.8	9999	9999

It comes out to just over 26" if you use the same ratio that Midway had.

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It comes out to just over 26" if you use the same ratio that Midway had.

Yeah, it's very interesting to me. I mean we all know the MDW and ORD (and prior official sites for Chicago) high snowstorm marks, but some other location in NE IL has to have greater than 23" in one event. I know Peotone had 26.0" with Jan 1967, but I'd be curious to see some others.

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Yeah, it's very interesting to me. I mean we all know the MDW and ORD (and prior official sites for Chicago) high snowstorm marks, but some other location in NE IL has to have greater than 23" in one event. I know Peotone had 26.0" with Jan 1967, but I'd be curious to see some others.

I suspect there are several storms like that going back into the 1800's. Well, maybe not several, but a few.

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Yeah, it's very interesting to me. I mean we all know the MDW and ORD (and prior official sites for Chicago) high snowstorm marks, but some other location in NE IL has to have greater than 23" in one event. I know Peotone had 26.0" with Jan 1967, but I'd be curious to see some others.

I'm not 100% sure...but I believe some areas in far NE IL had 24"+ with the Jan. 1979 storm.

Even though MDW finished that winter with 89.7" of snow, I believe some locations in far NE IL had close to 100".

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