michsnowfreak Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 low of 35 at DTW this morning, first frost of the season (we had lows around 40, socked in with clouds earlier in the month when many areas had a frost or two). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Don't look at the 06z GFS, what has been seen can not be unseen :snowman: * * obviously subject to change ECMWF gets close. Reallll close. Gets pretty dang cold (850 below -5C) for much of Ohio/Michigan. Actually would be a wet snow for a lot of areas west of the low... just not far enough west for us to do anything with. lol, all I know is bring on the amplified storm pattern, and keep it coming all winter long. This. I don't think I was this encouraged by the pattern last year, so I'm getting a little excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 just a beast of a storm on the 6z GFS..65kt winds in the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 low of 35 at DTW this morning, first frost of the season (we had lows around 40, socked in with clouds earlier in the month when many areas had a frost or two). 28 here in Marshall and serious frostiness this morn ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 06Z GFS for MOP (Sorry, I had to): FRI 12Z 28-OCT 1.7 -5.6 1013 87 93 0.09 545 535 FRI 18Z 28-OCT 0.6 -6.3 1007 96 99 0.37 540 534 SAT 00Z 29-OCT -0.5 -5.9 1003 96 99 0.42 536 533 SAT 06Z 29-OCT -0.5 -5.1 997 96 99 0.26 532 534 SAT 12Z 29-OCT 0.4 -5.0 996 96 99 0.19 532 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Wow. Regardless of what occurs, I don't ever remember a snowstorm before mid november in the metro detroit area. Granted I am only 25, but the norm has been for it to be atleast thanksgiving to even think a substantial (more than flurries) snow storm is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Wow. Regardless of what occurs, I don't ever remember a snowstorm before mid november in the metro detroit area. Granted I am only 25, but the norm has been for it to be atleast thanksgiving to even think a substantial (more than flurries) snow storm is possible. I've seen 2 6"+ storms in mid November (2002, 1997). Earlier than that, and I've been lucky to get a sloppy inch or two. October is usually just the time to sniff out the first couple of flakes. Anything else is the cherry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 12z GFS is not going to build upon the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I've seen 2 6"+ storms in mid November (2002, 1997). Earlier than that, and I've been lucky to get a sloppy inch or two. October is usually just the time to sniff out the first couple of flakes. Anything else is the cherry. Do you remember the ENSO those years you got the early snow? Im assuming its more likely to occur on a neutral ENSO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 12z GFS is not going to build upon the 6z run. Analyzing the 500mb charts there are similarities between the 0z GFS and 12z GFS. The vortex is slightly further south on the 12z GFS but the 12z weakens the storm and suppreses it towards the Mid Atlantic. The HP anomaly across Northern Ontario is def. further south than the other GFS runs. I'm not buying the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Do you remember the ENSO those years you got the early snow? Im assuming its more likely to occur on a neutral ENSO? They were actually both Ninos. 1997 was a particularly strong one. 2002 was a moderate one IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Analyzing the 500mb charts there are similarities between the 0z GFS and 12z GFS. The vortex is slightly further south on the 12z GFS but the 12z weakens the storm and suppreses it towards the Mid Atlantic. The HP anomaly across Northern Ontario is def. further south than the other GFS runs. I'm not buying the 12z run. Personally, I'm not buying anything right now. I'm heartened in remembering how the midweek storm played out with the models. Overall though, I'm just glad to be back to tracking, even if right now it's only rain I have to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I've seen 2 6"+ storms in mid November (2002, 1997). Earlier than that, and I've been lucky to get a sloppy inch or two. October is usually just the time to sniff out the first couple of flakes. Anything else is the cherry. Toronto got about 3-5" on October 21st 1969 and again where we got just over 6 inches back on Nov 2nd 1951 followed by another 3-5" snow event 3-5 days later. Nov 1950 was also filled with many snow events esp. the blizzard near the end where we got over 12". Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Personally, I'm not buying anything right now. I'm heartened in remembering how the midweek storm played out with the models. Overall though, I'm just glad to be back to tracking, even if right now it's only rain I have to look forward to. Agree fully! It'll be interesting to see how the Euro plays this storm. The Euro/UKMET and perhaps the JMA nailed the storms last Winter so lets see. The 0z Euro and 0z GFS looked very similar precip/temp wise. Certainly if this storm ends up similar to this previous storm that will be interesting and perhaps give us clues about Winter. Last year we had a few coastal in Oct/Nov whereas this year I dont think we even had 1 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Agree fully! It'll be interesting to see how the Euro plays this storm. The Euro/UKMET and perhaps the JMA nailed the storms last Winter so lets see. The 0z Euro and 0z GFS looked very similar precip/temp wise. Certainly if this storm ends up similar to this previous storm that will be interesting and perhaps give us clues about Winter. Last year we had a few coastal in Oct/Nov whereas this year I dont think we even had 1 lol. With that SE Ridge that you said should be staying strong through the next few weeks, do you think a NW trend will be realized? It really doesn't matter for lakeside locations like Milwaukee and Chicago, but it would mean more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Toronto got about 3-5" on October 21st 1969 and again where we got just over 6 inches back on Nov 2nd 1951 followed by another 3-5" snow event 3-5 days later. Nov 1950 was also filled with many snow events esp. the blizzard near the end where we got over 12". Source accum. snowfalls in October have become pretty sparse in recent times. I vaguely remember a slushy coating back in the mid 1990s (maybe 1995). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 GEM only out through 120 but it looks like it'll come in more phased/amplified than its 0z run, and the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 accum. snowfalls in October have become pretty sparse in recent times. I vaguely remember a slushy coating back in the mid 1990s (maybe 1995). I experienced snow events before Halloween up in Ottawa in both 2008 and 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 They were actually both Ninos. 1997 was a particularly strong one. 2002 was a moderate one IIRC. I well remember the fall of 1997. Everyone was calling for a torch, and October 1997 started out very warm. It turned very cold towards the end of October. It was until January/February 1998 that the torch trul took hold, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Got down to 30* last night, coldest temp of the season thus far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I experienced snow events before Halloween up in Ottawa in both 2008 and 2010. 1997, i think we already talked about this. was one of my last winters in ottawa before i moved in 99 http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=XX&StationID=4337&cmdB2=Go&Month=10&Year=1997&Day=21 definitely snow on the ground for halloween where i lived at the time. i remember kids were hopping over snowbanks from house to house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 btw woah!......new forum caught me by surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Trick or Treating in 3 inches of wet snow in 1989. That was fun! Saw a picture of myself that day in the snow. Everything was plastered with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I heard that one of the prizes was Hoosier giving a personally guided tour of Purdue. Down to 31“ at 6 AM. Will be a nice diurnal swing if we make it to the progged high of 59. Even better for LAF, with a prediction of 63. 61 right now, a 31 degree turnaround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Warm and sunny day here, 63 already. Fall weather is friggin schizo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Impressive temp response today. Up to 66 now after starting out at a frosty 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 With that SE Ridge that you said should be staying strong through the next few weeks, do you think a NW trend will be realized? It really doesn't matter for lakeside locations like Milwaukee and Chicago, but it would mean more precip. It depends. If the NAO/AO stay slightly negative then perhaps we can get more periods where the SE Ridge is active when comparing to last year but I think the storm track will be further NW than the past two Winters but the exact track depends on the pattern present at that moment. We've seen many storms tracking through the GL's region since September so its a possibility. accum. snowfalls in October have become pretty sparse in recent times. I vaguely remember a slushy coating back in the mid 1990s (maybe 1995). Hmm we had many October snowfall events back when the PDO was last negative and when it went positive that seemed to have stopped. Could we perhaps go back into that era once again? The 1940's through the 1970's featured some of the best Winters ever but the 80's and 90's were sh!t. Since 2007-present we've seen 3 decent Winters with one f*cked up one lol. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Gorgeous day. Too bad I had to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Gorgeous day. Too bad I had to work. Agreed, was beautiful here today and I also had to work for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Saturday, October 22nd: Hi: 66F Lo: 34F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 12MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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