NEOH Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 GRR. It's been pouring for over 12 hours straight from a pesky lake effect rain band over Greater Cleveland. Perusing some of the wunderground personal weather stations, some locales are already over an inch of lake effect rain overnight. Easily would have been a surprise 12"+ snowstorm had this been a few weeks later. Let's hope for this come Nov or Dec. Hate to "waste" these set-ups with LER instead of LES. What's odd is that the winds are SW'erly, yet the bands are moving in off of the lake WNW'erly. You would think that the shear would prevent the banding but that is not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Let's hope for this come Nov or Dec. Hate to "waste" these set-ups with LER instead of LES. What's odd is that the winds are SW'erly, yet the bands are moving in off of the lake WNW'erly. You would think that the shear would prevent the banding but that is not the case. 850's are almost west. Probably some convergence going on. This set up is almost identical to December 8th of last year. Really is a shame to blow this set up just a few weeks too early. Even BKL which has precipitation sensor issues is over 0.82" for the night. If we can hold out the wet pattern for a few more months, we will no doubt start to cash in,in the very near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 DTX THIS NEXT SYSTEM...OR ACTUALLY SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...WILL BRINGBACK A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED WITH TIME. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ULTIMATELY CULMINATE IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON BY WEEK/S END WITH AT LEAST A CONTINUED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WHILE THE OVERALL EXTEND/TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY FALL WELL INTO THE 30S AGAIN BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BY FRIDAY PROBABLY STALLING IN THE 40S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Thursday, October 20th: Hi: 47F Lo: 41F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 39MPH Rainfall: 0.11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Made it down to 34 here this morning, which is the coldest temp since April 21st (Low of 29). ORD made it down to 38, which is the first sub-40 temp on the season and the coldest temp since May 16th (Low of 37). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Potential snow threat for northern MI and parts of northern MN, which are in this region as of now. Guidance having sensitivity issues with respect to the leading wave, but there will be a significant cold air dump and a sharp low level baro zone. Lots of amplification potential should a decent wave emerge from the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 pretty nice day today, have had full sunshine since this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 There was a freeze across Iowa this morning(widespread mid to upper 20s), but my yard got away with just a light freeze with only light frost. My most sensitive tender plants got zapped, but many others that I was expecting to freeze came through nearly untouched. Looking like those plants get another week. Update: Many of my plants took a turn for the worse late this afternoon -- even the one I covered with a sheet -- so the freeze was a bit worse than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Potential snow threat for northern MI and parts of northern MN, which are in this region as of now. Guidance having sensitivity issues with respect to the leading wave, but there will be a significant cold air dump and a sharp low level baro zone. Lots of amplification potential should a decent wave emerge from the Rockies. FWIW, the 18z NAM coming in stronger with this wave at 84hr then the 12z GFS and looks closer to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Dipped to 30 here this morning. Frosssssty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 FWIW, the 18z NAM coming in stronger with this wave at 84hr then the 12z GFS and looks closer to the Euro. Nice. Looks like the GEM is on board as well. Also advertises nice upslope snows over the high plains of Nebraska and Colorado. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Nice. Looks like the GEM is on board as well. Also advertises nice upslope snows over the high plains of Nebraska and Colorado. Should be interesting. Funny. I was just thinking, the official excitement for this winter of tracking would come when the first potential snowstorm for N Wisconsin arrives. I come back after mostly ignoring the board today, and I find a chance for a snow event in N Wisconsin. It doesn't matter that we'll probably have to wait until late November for our first shot at a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I'm totally stoked that in a week or two, it could be snowing! Even if it's just a wee bit. Can you believe it? It's been too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Just wanted to pimp the snowfall contest, considering it's in the other/old forum. Please, we need more entries. Baro has promised that Hoosier is funding the prizes...they should be real nice. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/27333-2011-12-centralwestern-forum-snowfall-contest/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Radiational cooling finally doing its trick tonight. 39 at Mitchell Field, 36 at Timmerman. Hopefully our first widespread frost near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 Friday, October 21st: Hi: 54F Lo: 34F Overall Sky Conditions: Mostly Clear Max Wind Gust: 14MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 pretty decent looking open wave on the 0z NAM over the central plains with some serious WAA (55kt southwesterly winds at 925mb) and an impressive low-level baroclinic zone to work with which is giving it a decent low-level cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 ARR and JOT down to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 ARR and JOT down to 32. We seem to be running colder than forecast. Wouldn't be surprised if we manage a freeze, if not here then just outside of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 This looks like it might be the deadest day of the year precip wise. How often do you see "No Thunderstorms Forecasted" on the SPC Day 1 SWO? Nothing but light showers in the Plains and the Rockies on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 We seem to be running colder than forecast. Wouldn't be surprised if we manage a freeze, if not here then just outside of town. Currently at 30 IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Just wanted to pimp the snowfall contest, considering it's in the other/old forum. Please, we need more entries. Baro has promised that Hoosier is funding the prizes...they should be real nice. http://www.americanw...owfall-contest/ I heard that one of the prizes was Hoosier giving a personally guided tour of Purdue. We seem to be running colder than forecast. Wouldn't be surprised if we manage a freeze, if not here then just outside of town. Down to 31“ at 6 AM. Will be a nice diurnal swing if we make it to the progged high of 59. Even better for LAF, with a prediction of 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Hard to call it a trend with the models just yet, but it looks like the EURO and GFS are playing catch up with the amount of amplification to a longwave trough forecasted to traverse the MS valley around D7. A number of GEFS members (and now the 6z GFS) are even more amped up. Just looking at the thermal structure, I'd say snow is a real possibility for somebody, assuming the more progressive solutions don't turn out to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Hard to call it a trend with the models just yet, but it looks like the EURO and GFS are playing catch up with the amount of amplification to a longwave trough forecasted to traverse the MS valley around D7. A number of GEFS members (and now the 6z GFS) are even more amped up. Just looking at the thermal structure, I'd say snow is a real possibility for somebody, assuming the more progressive solutions don't turn out to be correct. Don't look at the 06z GFS, what has been seen can not be unseen :snowman: * * obviously subject to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Don't look at the 06z GFS, what has been seen can not be unseen :snowman: Even if it turns out to be 100% rain, so long as the more amplified solution verifies, it gives me high hopes for this winter. This would make it two in a row that the models underforecasted in the med-long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Even if it turns out to be 100% rain, so long as the more amplified solution verifies, it gives me high hopes for this winter. This would make it two in a row that the models underforecasted in the med-long range. Oh I agree, but the minute I started looking at the 500mb vort maps I knew by 84 that it would come in more amplified which is a nice feeling to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Oh I agree, but the minute I started looking at the 500mb vort maps I knew by 84 that it would come in more amplified which is a nice feeling to see that. Check out the 6z DGEX (obligatory emoticon necessary when DGEX mentioned). QPF bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Check out the 6z DGEX (obligatory emoticon necessary when DGEX mentioned). QPF bomb. lol, all I know is bring on the amplified storm pattern, and keep it coming all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Lol, nothing like bufkit showing 26.9" of snow using a 10:1 ratio for DTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Low temps of 32º or lower across Indiana this morning, as of 8AM. GSH: 29º BMG: 30º OKK: 30º EYE: 30º HUF: 30º LAF: 30º FWA: 31º MIE: 31º GEZ: 31º GUS: 32º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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