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October 2011 General Discussion/Obs


Chicago Storm

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Very brisk here in Toronto. I'm not sure if EC is simply up to its usual warm bias, but the storm for the middle of this week isn't looking like much for my area. Accuweather over hyping again?

I'm not happy with what the 0z and 6z GFS runs showed for next Sunday (the 23rd). That is one day I could do without snow or rain!

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Very brisk here in Toronto. I'm not sure if EC is simply up to its usual warm bias, but the storm for the middle of this week isn't looking like much for my area. Accuweather over hyping again?

I'm not happy with what the 0z and 6z GFS runs showed for next Sunday (the 23rd). That is one day I could do without snow or rain!

Earlier this week they were forecasting highs for today in the mid teens C (I think 17 at one point). Because they use the GGEM verbatim for their D3-7 forecasts, the warm bias associated with that model seems to always get incorporated. But to even hobbyists like us, it was obvious it was going to be a lot cooler than that.

b_i had a good post in the separate storm thread about midweek. We could still eke some rain out of it though.

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Earlier this week they were forecasting highs for today in the mid teens C (I think 17 at one point). Because they use the GGEM verbatim for their D3-7 forecasts, the warm bias associated with that model seems to always get incorporated. But to even hobbyists like us, it was obvious it was going to be a lot cooler than that.

b_i had a good post in the separate storm thread about midweek. We could still eke some rain out of it though.

The latest Euro has quite the storm for Wednesday. It's looking like next weekend could be okay, with a just a front passing through on Sunday.

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lmao

Unlike a real Big Ten Defense. He was essentially shut down and deemed useless.

For some reason we decided to play musical quarterbacks between Denard and our second string. I'm not sure why. We decided to abandon our strategy of "just give the ball to Denard and he'll probably get a touch down" that had been working so well. Because clearly he can't throw for ****. :(

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I guess this is the point at which fantasy winter storms start appearing, even if the reality is it probably won't be cold enough for snow. Day 12 on the 12z GFS has a storm in the Great Lakes, and there's a good chance we dip below freezing at some point during the night, but I guess it's useless to speculate 12 days out.

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The arctic is currently in a Dipole Anomaly. With an HP sitting over the Canadian Side. And and SLP over SE Canada is opening up air from the arctic ice sheet to flow all the way deep into the CONUS.

Is there any analogs of past year with Early snow cover along this path in Canada helping keep the air refrigerated on the way?

It is going to get pretty chilly for October and there being such a negative ice departure.

I am not trying to debate anyone..but the ice/snow anomalies are severely negative. We know that ice/snow reflect 65-90% of solar rays.

Has there been any Octobers around these parts where an early season cold plunge was aided by snow pack?

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To be honest, I haven't looked at the models much lately. That being said, I did just go over there and the 18z run hasn't even started yet.

Yeah, it's been happening pretty regularly the last couple of days. The retooling of the web layout wasn't enough to drive me away from NCEP, but these types of delays might.

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