phlwx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 ^odd mix of winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 ^odd mix of winters... Tempwise, I think the only one that will come close to this October is 2008, the other Octobers were chillier and even 2008 may be chillier than this October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Tempwise, I think the only one that will come close to this October is 2008, the other Octobers were chillier and even 2008 may be chillier than this October. I wouldn't discount 1917-18 just yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 In my opinion as proven by the last couple of years october means nothing by itswlf, I rthink november should be in there too. October has also generally been warmer as of later perhaps even more than november per average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 In my opinion as proven by the last couple of years october means nothing by itswlf, I rthink november should be in there too. October has also generally been warmer as of later perhaps even more than november per average. No. October 2003, 4, 6, 8, 9 were all below the 139 year median (and below normal by 1981-2010 standards) and October 2000 & 2002 were right around the long term median (and still below normal by the current normal averages). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 I wouldn't discount 1917-18 just yet... I have to draw a line in the sand somewhere, doesn't mean I'm right by not including it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 ^odd mix of winters... 2008-9 while not technically a nina is getting more mileage given this weekend system. BTW FWIW small sample size, etc, so forth, so on, looking at the three other Octobers with measurable snow in PHL, 18-29" subsequent winters and even though in 2008 it didn't snow at PHL, it also fell within that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 No. October 2003, 4, 6, 8, 9 were all below the 139 year median (and below normal by 1981-2010 standards) and October 2000 & 2002 were right around the long term median (and still below normal by the current normal averages). 2010 was above normal and I believe you have said in the past, that November was also used in your calculations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 2010 was above normal and I believe you have said in the past, that November was also used in your calculations. Yes it is and yes I do, but November has had more warm months lately than October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thanks for the play-by-play Tony. I really appreciate the insight from all the Mets from Mt.Holly WFO, and across the profession for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Definitely a "middle third" month on temperatures...might even finish the month exactly at average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Definitely a "middle third" month on temperatures...might even finish the month exactly at average. I'm getting a majority of "equal chances" aka around normal signals: Oct temps, Nflound waters nao, nh snow, Walt's recurving tropics. Nina maybe if weak, the qbo phase yes for cold and the pdo phase warm. I always wait for November to "help". At yesterday's breakneck speed staff meeting because of the impending snow one of my colleagues commented that pairs of blockbuster winters have occurred in the past on the ascending side of the solar cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 Definitely a "middle third" month on temperatures...might even finish the month exactly at average. Yup,. we cooled into the central "normal" third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 +0.2 (was hopin for the "exactly average" to pan out lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 1, 2011 Author Share Posted November 1, 2011 Ok, using the "normal" October as the foundation, in weak to mdt nina winters when: October was normal and November was cold (5) ensuing winter average 30.8F and average snowfall 24.6" October was normal and November was normal (6) ensuing winter average 34.3F and average snowfall 21.9" October was normal and November was warm (1 - 1998-9) ensuing winter average 38.3F and average snowfall 12.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Ok, using the "normal" October as the foundation, in weak to mdt nina winters when: October was normal and November was cold (5) ensuing winter average 30.8F and average snowfall 24.6" October was normal and November was normal (6) ensuing winter average 34.3F and average snowfall 21.9" October was normal and November was warm (1 - 1998-9) ensuing winter average 38.3F and average snowfall 12.5" A very strong influence from November, to be sure. Now I'm eager to see how it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Subjectively I'd say its positive. Oct '72 and '79 (at least as far as winter snowfall went) get too much credit. I also found it in 34, 40, 57, 65 and the obvious one in 2008 using COOP/AWOS. Believe it or not, measurable october snow is hard to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Ok, using the "normal" October as the foundation, in weak to mdt nina winters when: October was normal and November was cold (5) ensuing winter average 30.8F and average snowfall 24.6" October was normal and November was normal (6) ensuing winter average 34.3F and average snowfall 21.9" October was normal and November was warm (1 - 1998-9) ensuing winter average 38.3F and average snowfall 12.5" By the looks of the long range, a cold November looks to be off the table. Now we just have to see how much above normal we get before we start jumping off of tall buildings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 By the looks of the long range, a cold November looks to be off the table. Now we just have to see how much above normal we get before we start jumping off of tall buildings. As Tony has mentioned in the past, November has probably warmed more than any other month so if we can keep it within a couple of degrees we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2011 Author Share Posted November 5, 2011 By the looks of the long range, a cold November looks to be off the table. Now we just have to see how much above normal we get before we start jumping off of tall buildings. That winter was also on the strong end of the moderate nina range while this one as a consensus average is outlooked weaker, so unless this November is a top ten torch and the nina strengthens I wouldn't be too concerned just yet. The Oct average Eurasian snowcover came in the middle of the pack, although it has made great strides of late. Gotta look at the Nov hemispheric coverage stats soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 That winter was also on the strong end of the moderate nina range while this one as a consensus average is outlooked weaker, so unless this November is a top ten torch and the nina strengthens I wouldn't be too concerned just yet. The Oct average Eurasian snowcover came in the middle of the pack, although it has made great strides of late. Gotta look at the Nov hemispheric coverage stats soon. Both of those look doubtful also. I personally don't mind nice mild November days. Gets you ready for a nice cold. snowy December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 That winter was also on the strong end of the moderate nina range while this one as a consensus average is outlooked weaker, so unless this November is a top ten torch and the nina strengthens I wouldn't be too concerned just yet. The Oct average Eurasian snowcover came in the middle of the pack, although it has made great strides of late. Gotta look at the Nov hemispheric coverage stats soon. The quickly growing snowcover in the west and in the Rockies will really help out in early December as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 November 08 was mild to warm through mid month and then the bottom fell out of the thermometer for the last half of the month. Having a nice first half or even two-thirds of November isn't a bad thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 November 08 was mild to warm through mid month and then the bottom fell out of the thermometer for the last half of the month. Having a nice first half or even two-thirds of November isn't a bad thing... Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 6, 2011 Author Share Posted November 6, 2011 November 08 was mild to warm through mid month and then the bottom fell out of the thermometer for the last half of the month. Having a nice first half or even two-thirds of November isn't a bad thing... Yeah maybe get one or two more golf rounds in before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 The cool nights have kept November near normal so far. An MJO induced colder pattern remains on/close to schedule about two weeks away. My colleague's regression equation methodology as far as October went logged one on the colder side as he uses the average daytime max and that was -0.4F. Nina perked up (or is it down) to -1.1C the past week, but NH snow cover remains above normal. Worst case scenario is to have both October & November average below normal with NH snow cover. BUT, every November day has been above normal so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Tony, what are the break points for middle third between cold and warm in November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 Tony, what are the break points for middle third between cold and warm in November? I don't have them at home, back to work on Wednesday. The current 30 year normal is close to the boundary between normal and warmest third. I'm mulling just splitting Nov in half this year to increase the sample size especially if NH snow cover remains above average. Mark has not been hurt by this with his regression equations since November max temps are one of his working parameters. I was up in Delaware County NY on the NJ school 4 day break this past weekend, I got to experience fresher le snow squalls on Friday and shiver while golfing on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I don't have them at home, back to work on Wednesday. The current 30 year normal is close to the boundary between normal and warmest third. I'm mulling just splitting Nov in half this year to increase the sample size especially if NH snow cover remains above average. Mark has not been hurt by this with his regression equations since November max temps are one of his working parameters. I was up in Delaware County NY on the NJ school 4 day break this past weekend, I got to experience fresher le snow squalls on Friday and shiver while golfing on Saturday. I gather your garden is enjoying this late warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 I gather your garden is enjoying this late warmth? I'm still finding peppers although the eggplants were toasted. Broccoli raab and lettuce looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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