October Banter/ Disco

[WeatherX]

A match made on, well.....AmWx

[ORH_wxman]

I haven't been at all impressed in Rindge; the years with mild autumns, especially when they are wet, inevitably have the worst foliage. I remember Middlebury had almost no foliage in Fall 2006; the foliage was also mediocre when the impressive October 2007 torch arrived. October 2008, with the fairly mild September and then a rapid flip to crisp weather, had some of the best foliage I can remember. Most of the maples here are just a tepid yellow with fringes of brown...I'm not too surprised as ORH is +3.1 for September now. It's amazing how we had gotten back to normal with the cold shot but have rapidly moved into extreme warm departures. As I said in early September, most of SNE will finish September 3-4F above normal.

The wet September has hurt a lot too. You want dry conditions for good foliage. Ideal is seasonal days (even a tad warm isn't so bad) but crisp night (but not hard freezes or lots of frosts). Lots of days like 65/40 or 60/35 are good for foliage and keep it pretty dry.

I am not suprised at the warm September earlier. I've been bullish on a warm September since mid August. Even when we got back to near 0 for the month, we knew the warmth was coming behind it.

I think October could be similar that we make up some ground after a cold shot...though unlike September, we could start off the first week to 10 days with some pretty solid negative departures, but it seems like we could have a very warm period after that if the larger scale synoptics showing up on the ensembles do not change.

[ORH_wxman]

A match made on, well.....AmWx

LOL....Pete will be selling him his hair after a trim at 100$ per envelope full.

[N. OF PIKE]

gonna take a hike up in the greens this sunday.....nice crispy wx to be sure

staying at a friends house at 1440' in randolph, vt .......nice escape.

wish that ULL could close off a bit more NE and give me a flake or two climbin mansfield.

[nzucker]

The wet September has hurt a lot too. You want dry conditions for good foliage. Ideal is seasonal days (even a tad warm isn't so bad) but crisp night (but not hard freezes or lots of frosts). Lots of days like 65/40 or 60/35 are good for foliage and keep it pretty dry.

I am not suprised at the warm September earlier. I've been bullish on a warm September since mid August. Even when we got back to near 0 for the month, we knew the warmth was coming behind it.

I think October could be similar that we make up some ground after a cold shot...though unlike September, we could start off the first week to 10 days with some pretty solid negative departures, but it seems like we could have a very warm period after that if the larger scale synoptics showing up on the ensembles do not change.

I'm not buying this big "cool-down." 12z ECM shows the ULL cutting off to the southwest this weekend, so it takes a lot of time for the cold air to penetrate eastern New England, such as where I am, and then 850s quickly recover to around 5C as the ULL weakens and less cold air is drawn down on the northeast side. I could see places like DC or Dobbs Ferry having very impressive negative departures while NH struggles to see below average temperatures over the weekend.

The second reinforcing cold shot does look more legitimate as the +PNA amplifies, but I still am worried about the pattern in the long-range trending towards warmth with the general +EPO that's prevailed this fall causing the westerlies to retreat into Northern Canada, as well as a huge -PNA developing early-mid month allowing warm air to advect ahead of a Colorado Low. 12z ECM shows near historic warmth for parts of the Canadian Arctic with 850s of 12-14C all the way into Northern Quebec and Labrador, absolute torch for mid-October. If we see another stalled front over the Plains, we'd have another streak of huge departures as we've witnessed this month.

[WeatherX]

LOL....Pete will be selling him his hair after a trim at 100$ per envelope full.

That was a fun afternoon....glad Loose Bolts and I made it......spot market on Kev's hair....I'm thinking spot trades are at at least $110 this morning....

All good fun

[ski MRG]

Yawn.

I'm not that impressed with foliage thus far...both from the pics and driving up on the ridge lines north of here. Definitely seems like a below average year thus far.

The colors are drab. The leaves look like they're being attacked by mold or mildew. Nonetheless, we are nearing the peak. I will get some more pics tomorrow but you could also call your buds in Savoy.

[CoastalWx]

I'm not buying this big "cool-down." 12z ECM shows the ULL cutting off to the southwest this weekend, so it takes a lot of time for the cold air to penetrate eastern New England, such as where I am, and then 850s quickly recover to around 5C as the ULL weakens and less cold air is drawn down on the northeast side. I could see places like DC or Dobbs Ferry having very impressive negative departures while NH struggles to see below average temperatures over the weekend.

The second reinforcing cold shot does look more legitimate as the +PNA amplifies, but I still am worried about the pattern in the long-range trending towards warmth with the general +EPO that's prevailed this fall causing the westerlies to retreat into Northern Canada, as well as a huge -PNA developing early-mid month allowing warm air to advect ahead of a Colorado Low. 12z ECM shows near historic warmth for parts of the Canadian Arctic with 850s of 12-14C all the way into Northern Quebec and Labrador, absolute torch for mid-October. If we see another stalled front over the Plains, we'd have another streak of huge departures as we've witnessed this month.

You're right in that it probably won't be all that cold per se this weekend. In fact, the Laurels of PA down into WV may see there first snows in the tallest peaks. However, with this ULL cutting off so far to the south, we may be involved with onshore flow and some shwrs from time to time, so that may chill off the high temps..especially up near you. Next week's cold shot looks more legit. Could be downright chilly in Maine, but we still have some time for that.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm not buying this big "cool-down." 12z ECM shows the ULL cutting off to the southwest this weekend, so it takes a lot of time for the cold air to penetrate eastern New England, such as where I am, and then 850s quickly recover to around 5C as the ULL weakens and less cold air is drawn down on the northeast side. I could see places like DC or Dobbs Ferry having very impressive negative departures while NH struggles to see below average temperatures over the weekend.

The second reinforcing cold shot does look more legitimate as the +PNA amplifies, but I still am worried about the pattern in the long-range trending towards warmth with the general +EPO that's prevailed this fall causing the westerlies to retreat into Northern Canada, as well as a huge -PNA developing early-mid month allowing warm air to advect ahead of a Colorado Low. 12z ECM shows near historic warmth for parts of the Canadian Arctic with 850s of 12-14C all the way into Northern Quebec and Labrador, absolute torch for mid-October. If we see another stalled front over the Plains, we'd have another streak of huge departures as we've witnessed this month.

Well the first cool shot will be when the ULL gets to us...it wont be a classic crisp cool shot...there will be some moisture around. The 2nd cool shot is actually pretty classic for New England this early...more of a back door variety...almost from the due north of NNW and the temp gradient eventually gets more NNE to SSW as the trough deepens over Maine. We see that alot in fall as the jet is still a bit north.

Those are the types of air masses where Rindge will have a high of 52F and your old stomping ground will hit 67F or something. Good air mass for elevation lapse rate and also for a good latitude gradient. I think overall the first week of October will be solidly negative...it won't be -10 or anything like that...but probably a solid -5 or so if it goes correctly. There is a chance the ULL gets stalled a little and produces a decent positive day on Oct 1-2 which might mess it up a bit.

[ski MRG]

Sleep deprivation blows

Getting good sleep these days.

I notice you've completely circumvented us calling you out about that foliage pic you posted being from last year. LOL. At least be honest about what you're posting

You don't read these threads carefully enough.

[ORH_wxman]

The colors are drab. The leaves look like they're being attacked by mold or mildew. Nonetheless, we are nearing the peak. I will get some more pics tomorrow but you could also call your buds in Savoy.

Hey Pete, not doubting the change in the leaves...just think its been subpar so far. There are definitely a lot of trees losing foliage around here too. But its been overly drab compared to other years. At least so far. Still some time for a bit of change....maybe the cold dry airmass next week will bring out more color.

[ski MRG]

I notice you've completely circumvented us calling you out about that foliage pic you posted being from last year. LOL. At least be honest about what you're posting

See post #1722 in the locked thread.

[ChrisM]

I hope we can have a cool october...really one of my favorite times of the year. Going to the local fairs when it's 45 and crisp is something special.

Going to the bar now though, til the next time! See ya guys

[CoastalWx]

Hey Pete, not doubting the change in the leaves...just think its been subpar so far. There are definitely a lot of trees losing foliage around here too. But its been overly drab compared to other years. At least so far. Still some time for a bit of change....maybe the cold dry airmass next week will bring out more color.

That will hopefully get the ball rolling because you're right....it looks pretty drab right now. Hopefully next week doesn't moderate too much, although not sure of that 522 thickness line will hit eastern Maine..lol. Those are our money shots of CAA. Strong building in from the north with that n-nnw delivery. If we have that...we'll have at least one night as the ridge of high pressure moves east and the burbs plummet.

[eekuasepinniW]

I never understood that logic, each page loads at the same rate. someone in the know needs to really explain this. If a page is loaded with graphics and external links it will load slower, views have nothing to do with it, each page is not preloaded.

you're mixing up the performance of this sites server with the performance of your internet connection.

threads are kept from getting huge because when you open a thread, the board has to load the posts, figure out the pagination, parse urls/emoticons/tags, increment counters, and several other tasks. in short, bigger threads = more data = slower query execution time = mysql backs up = board bogs down = people scream.

[ORH_wxman]

That will hopefully get the ball rolling because you're right....it looks pretty drab right now. Hopefully next week doesn't moderate too much, although not sure of that 522 thickness line will hit eastern Maine..lol. Those are our money shots of CAA. Strong building in from the north with that n-nnw delivery. If we have that...we'll have at least one night as the ridge of high pressure moves east and the burbs plummet.

That would probably be a hard freeze for the radiation spots if it got that cold with thicknesses here...like 540 here with high pressure cresting just to the west. But remains to be seen how extreme the trough gets. Could be a bit more mellow as we get closer....it often is. But still would produce some frost I think and some chilly readings even if we moderate it by 2C.

[ski MRG]

Hey Pete, not doubting the change in the leaves...just think its been subpar so far. There are definitely a lot of trees losing foliage around here too. But its been overly drab compared to other years. At least so far. Still some time for a bit of change....maybe the cold dry airmass next week will bring out more color.

I think we're cooked here. The vast majority of trees have changed and the colors are sickly looking. The damage is done. There is on place in Windsor Jambs (just east of Windsor, a few minutes from here) where there is a stand of oaks that hasn't shown much more than browning of the edges of the leaves but for the most part everything is showing blah color. I posted this pic earlier but I'll do it again for those that don't read and just post wild accusations. It was taken about 4pm today on my ride home. It is in West Worthington at about 1500'. You can see the hill in the background (and a slightly lower elevation) is full of drab color. We'll have a few trees that will pop spectacular colors I suppose but overall it's a clunker.

[moneypitmike]

We're getting pretty rocked here. Great light show--loud thunder. Wondering if I might get a second tree strike......torrential rains again.

[moneypitmike]

gonna take a hike up in the greens this sunday.....nice crispy wx to be sure

staying at a friends house at 1440' in randolph, vt .......nice escape.

wish that ULL could close off a bit more NE and give me a flake or two climbin mansfield.

Hey, man---are you back north for the winter??? Great to have you back from the tropics!

[ski MRG]

54/52, that last round was exciting, great thunder and lightning show. Enough rain for a while.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Hey Pete, not doubting the change in the leaves...just think its been subpar so far. There are definitely a lot of trees losing foliage around here too. But its been overly drab compared to other years. At least so far. Still some time for a bit of change....maybe the cold dry airmass next week will bring out more color.

The muted leaf colors this year I believe are in part due to a non-native fungus that effects maples which got carried up to New England with Irene.

[WeatherX]

[N. OF PIKE]

Hey, man---are you back north for the winter??? Great to have you back from the tropics!

we shall see MPM we shall see

[Logan11]

Very drab in my area... Probably 40-50 percent turn now, but mostly rusty and brown colors.... Maybe when the other trees turn they will add more vibrant color.

I'm down in Westchester now ..on a NYC area work trip. Not much color here yet - a touch here and there.

Hey Pete, not doubting the change in the leaves...just think its been subpar so far. There are definitely a lot of trees losing foliage around here too. But its been overly drab compared to other years. At least so far. Still some time for a bit of change....maybe the cold dry airmass next week will bring out more color.

[ORH_wxman]

Very drab in my area... Probably 40-50 percent turn now, but mostly rusty and brown colors.... Maybe when the other trees turn they will add more vibrant color.

I'm down in Westchester now ..on a NYC area work trip. Not much color here yet - a touch here and there.

Yeah the warm and wet September killed the foliage season. Still a chance to get a bit more color this next week.

[Damage In Tolland]

Last night's Euro is a disaster for next week with another cutoff to our west but closer than this past weeks was. Not sure if it's right as it's a change from past runs..but if so,, prepare for another wet, humid week...though not as muggy as the last 10 days were. i was hoping the 2nd cool shot would happen next week. Euro says no

[moneypitmike]

Last night's Euro is a disaster for next week with another cutoff to our west but closer than this past weeks was. Not sure if it's right as it's a change from past runs..but if so,, prepare for another wet, humid week...though not as muggy as the last 10 days were. i was hoping the 2nd cool shot would happen next week. Euro says no

It'll be cool enough (if yestserday was any indication). Perhaps it will push the colder air back toward your marathon......

Nice to see a clear sky this morning. It cleared out last night right after the 8:30p.m. thunderstorm.

Cool and breezy morning. But, my home depot thermometer is currently saying it's 111*. I guess you're right, Kevin--my DP2 readings must be low.

[Flying MXZ]

Very drab in my area... Probably 40-50 percent turn now, but mostly rusty and brown colors.... Maybe when the other trees turn they will add more vibrant color.

I'm down in Westchester now ..on a NYC area work trip. Not much color here yet - a touch here and there.

Very drab here also, but we are close to or past peak. VERY little green left. There are some real nice trees, but most hillsides are drab brown/dull orange.

[ski MRG]

Very drab here also, but we are close to or past peak. VERY little green left. There are some real nice trees, but most hillsides are drab brown/dull orange.

I keep telling Blizz that in other places that aren't tropical like CT it's nearly over. Same here.

[moneypitmike]

I keep telling Blizz that in other places that aren't tropical like CT it's nearly over. Same here.

Didn't one of the Triple Crown favorites break it's leg coming out of the gate a couple year's back? This year's foliage season has some similarities--DOA ftl.