Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 a positive correlation does not = an absolute correlation I believe it was 2/3rds. Oct 2009 was frigid, meh DJF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Oct 2009 was frigid, meh DJF Snowed twice here in Oct 2009... mediocre after that (and pretty warm iirc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 67/62, a high of 79, no doubt about it, today was a warm one. Nice to see the cool air modeled to move back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 a positive correlation does not = an absolute correlation I believe it was 2/3rds. Interesting. A crude calculation of local climate data suggests otherwise. I compiled the average October temperature departure for BDL, BOS, PVD, and ORH, then looked only at the Octobers with departures +0.5 or greater. This yielded 33 Octobers. Of those 33 decidedly above normal Octobers, the winter (DJF) period finished above normal 17 times, and finished below normal 16 times. Also, those 17 above normal winters had an average departure +1.6 versus -2.4 in the 16 colder than normal winters. Including all Octobers, the correlation between October and winter mean temperature departures is 0.11, again showing that October is not terribly predictive of the following winter temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 67/62, a high of 79, no doubt about it, today was a warm one. Nice to see the cool air modeled to move back in. Not October yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 DT calling for snow squalls post frontal higher els, Ski MRG alert alert, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Interesting. A crude calculation of local climate data suggests otherwise. I compiled the average October temperature departure for BDL, BOS, PVD, and ORH, then looked only at the Octobers with departures +0.5 or greater. This yielded 33 Octobers. Of those 33 decidedly above normal Octobers, the winter (DJF) period finished above normal 17 times, and finished below normal 16 times. Also, those 17 above normal winters had an average departure +1.6 versus -2.4 in the 16 colder than normal winters. Including all Octobers, the correlation between October and winter mean temperature departures is 0.11, again showing that October is not terribly predictive of the following winter temperatures. Yep, do Nov if you can pretty sure much greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Yep, do Nov if you can pretty sure much greater. Using the same method as October, here's how warm Novembers played out. There were 27 warm Novembers (average monthly departure across the four climo sites of +0.5 and greater) of which 14 preceded a warmer than normal winter, and 13 colder than normal winters followed. The average warm winter had a departure of +1.9, and the average cool winter had a departure of -2.2. The correlation between November temperature departures and winter temperature departures is 0.27 which is a bit higher than October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Using the same method as October, here's how warm Novembers played out. There were 27 warm Novembers (average monthly departure across the four climo sites of +0.5 and greater) of which 14 preceded a warmer than normal winter, and 13 colder than normal winters followed. The average warm winter had a departure of +1.9, and the average cool winter had a departure of -2.2. The correlation between November temperature departures and winter temperature departures is 0.27 which is a bit higher than October. Thank you, How about cold Nov, deviation -1 or greater, thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Thank you, How about cold Nov, deviation -1 or greater, thanks in advance. There were 32 such Novembers resulting in an average winter departure of -1.5. 24 of the following winters were colder than normal and 8 were warmer than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Using the same method as October, here's how warm Novembers played out. There were 27 warm Novembers (average monthly departure across the four climo sites of +0.5 and greater) of which 14 preceded a warmer than normal winter, and 13 colder than normal winters followed. The average warm winter had a departure of +1.9, and the average cool winter had a departure of -2.2. The correlation between November temperature departures and winter temperature departures is 0.27 which is a bit higher than October. Certainly didn't work out too well last year, either. Fairly significant warm departure last October preceded a decent DJF, although it was more J. The other thing to keep in mind is that much of the currently used 30-year mean does not include the recent mode shift negative of the AO/NAO multi-decadal behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 The end of last night's EC is cold; the ens are much more tame. Then there's the GFS that tries to keep us sultry. Quite a few of the GEFS members have the d7 cutoff over us that the EC op has though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 The end of last night's EC is cold; the ens are much more tame. Then there's the GFS that tries to keep us sultry. Quite a few of the GEFS members have the d7 cutoff over us that the EC op has though. Yeah the euro op is an icebox. The ensembles suggest that first cold shot and then maybe a 1 day temporary relaxation followed by another shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Could be some snow on the taller peaks of NNE if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Could be some snow on the taller peaks of NNE if the GFS is right. road trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 GFS and Euro are light years apart right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 LOL it's like Joe ran the GFS op from his basement. The ensembles are much cooler. First real interesting model temp battle of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Hopefully this October won't be as much of a torch as 2007, when I remember using the AC until at least mid-month. Nina Octobers often seem very warm with a large, flat SE ridge situated over our part of the world. Even if the cutoff scenario depicted on the Euro verifies, it still looks like considerable ridging builds in from the Midwest here after the first few days of the month. We'd better pray we get a good -NAO to start beating down that SE ridge...otherwise I would be rather nervous about the prospects for a good snowy winter in SNE. NNE looks better. Mid-Atlantic is probably toast. The question is where does the gradient set up this year. The Berks are often on the fence during these gradient Nina winters, as we were in 07-08. Just N of me was epic, just S of me was a disaster, and I wound up with an average year. Regardless, snowpack retention stunk for me that year and many of the storms featured a nasty mix or cold rain so it was not a good winter by my definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 LOL it's like Joe ran the GFS op from his basement. The ensembles are much cooler. First real interesting model temp battle of the season. Big dump of cold at the end of the GFS run here in the NE, But, We will see if it continues moving ahead and if the Euro jumps on, But its outside the Euro's range, Having the ensembles on board is a good sign.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Hopefully this October won't be as much of a torch as 2007, when I remember using the AC until at least mid-month. That October sucked. BDL was still hitting close to 90 in the first week and mid-80s into the last week if I recall correctly. There was one day, around the 20th or somewhere in that last week where the high was in the upper-70s/low-80s with high humidity for that time of year and I remember saying to myself "how it can still be this warm it's the 20th of October" or something to that effect. The winter that followed was also pretty crappy for those of us on the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Could be some snow on the taller peaks of NNE if the GFS is right. I know a couple.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Hopefully this October won't be as much of a torch as 2007, when I remember using the AC until at least mid-month. Nina Octobers often seem very warm with a large, flat SE ridge situated over our part of the world. Even if the cutoff scenario depicted on the Euro verifies, it still looks like considerable ridging builds in from the Midwest here after the first few days of the month. We'd better pray we get a good -NAO to start beating down that SE ridge...otherwise I would be rather nervous about the prospects for a good snowy winter in SNE. NNE looks better. Mid-Atlantic is probably toast. The question is where does the gradient set up this year. The Berks are often on the fence during these gradient Nina winters, as we were in 07-08. Just N of me was epic, just S of me was a disaster, and I wound up with an average year. Regardless, snowpack retention stunk for me that year and many of the storms featured a nasty mix or cold rain so it was not a good winter by my definition. 07-08 was epic here, Just being north of where the gradient set up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Big dump of cold at the end of the GFS run here in the NE, But, We will see if it continues moving ahead and if the Euro jumps on, But its outside the Euro's range, Having the ensembles on board is a good sign.. When I was referring to the ensembles, I was talking in the day 7 timeframe. The cold shot on the ensembles is muted (as we would expect with the ensembles), but it is trying to move east at the end of the run. Of course like you said...it's la la land. Still looks like a more seasonable to maybe a little above normal second week of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 When I was referring to the ensembles, I was talking in the day 7 timeframe. The cold shot on the ensembles is muted (as we would expect with the ensembles), but it is trying to move east at the end of the run. Of course like you said...it's la la land. Still looks like a more seasonable to maybe a little above normal second week of October. Yeah, Just looked at the ensembles, I had looked at the Op just quickly, Day 7 above 3,000' has a chance, The ensembles are not as gung ho bringing the cold here as you mention as the Op is at the end of the GFS run, So its for entertainment purposes ATM but should be watched as we head deeper into fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Friday looks like a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Can someone help me out here. I was going to use bufkit and was getting some error message and it just closed down bufkit. I've been having issues with it for months but this was the first this message came up so I just uninstalled it and reinstalled it. I'm on the PSU page and trying to save the BDL file...I know how to save it but when I go to do this a message comes up and says I don't have permission to save into this folder...WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Friday looks like a torch. Yup, Looks like another ULL over the great lakes with some cold air moving SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Euro is so amped up with that ULL. It shoves the cold sw of us at first, then rotates in by Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Euro is so amped up with that ULL. It shoves the cold sw of us at first, then rotates in by Saturday evening. It rounded the base rapidly and spins it up thru here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 It says I don't have permission to save in this location, contact the system administrator for permission...I AM THE ADMINISTRATOR. I didn't get this message at all before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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