CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Mtns of NC getting snow right now. This ULL means business. Granted these are tall mtns....kind of funny in a way that they will see snow before some peaks do around here. Although the peaks above 3500' saw some a couple of weeks ago I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 '55-'56 was a popular analog last winter that worked out well. Big snow, cold winter, in a strong Nina with +QBO. The order of the big snow was different, but the general idea of a -NAO in a strong Nina worked out well which helped produce the big snow. I generally stay away from pre-1950 analogs because of cruddy data and also the fact that we were just coming out of the little ice age if you are going back far enough to the early 1900s or late 1800s. Yeah you and HM have really sparked interest in discussing the QBO, good stuff for weather weenies although very difficult to conceptualize.....Pre 50's data is relevant, just wish we could capture and analyze it better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Yeah you and HM have really sparked interest in discussing the QBO, good stuff for weather weenies although very difficult to conceptualize.....Pre 50's data is relevant, just wish we could capture and analyze it better.... If we had upper air data from pre-1950, we could use it a lot more. But only having sfc data is tough to use...especially when the ENSO sfc data has larger margins for error in that time frame. We can sometimes use analogs from back then if we can gather a good idea of what the upper air was like based on the sfc, but usually that is very tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Eh nothing really to talk about right now anyway . Rain line is moving slowly. We'll pick up the current wx again in time. Maybe I'll move these posts to the winter thread in the morning...but since there is already a chain of thought, I'll let it go here for now. 64/59 here and starting to rain, incredibly warm. Just a total torch lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Mtns of NC getting snow right now. This ULL means business. Granted these are tall mtns....kind of funny in a way that they will see snow before some peaks do around here. Although the peaks above 3500' saw some a couple of weeks ago I guess. I was just about to post this... and to think, I've been spending the past couple weeks lurking in the NE section because your weather is more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 My mom went to SUNY Oswego for her French major, loved it, College on the Hill. They average about 130" of snowfall so you'd love it there. I know Sam Lillo goes to Plymouth and loves it; several of my co-workers also attended Plymouth...it's a big party school but also very solid academics, you'd be very pleased I think. I wasn't really a fan of the bigger colleges, went to Middlebury with only 2400 students and found it was the environment that benefited me the most. I think NYC will do OK this winter; they're fine without the STJ unlike DC or BWI. My house had 70" last year in a moderate/strong Niña so I think it will be a decent winter as long as the NAO behaves. I think I went out with your mom on one of my weenie trips. Ther was something French about that girl....(j/k) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 If we had upper air data from pre-1950, we could use it a lot more. But only having sfc data is tough to use...especially when the ENSO sfc data has larger margins for error in that time frame. We can sometimes use analogs from back then if we can gather a good idea of what the upper air was like based on the sfc, but usually that is very tough. Of course....anecdotal evidence doesn't cut it when trying to make a forward looking forecast. 61/60 here before the next batch moves in..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Come to WestConn... Haha, are you in the met program there? I never really considered it because I haven't heard many positive things about it, and also its not as enticing snow fall wise as some of the other schools I mentioned. Do you like it? I'm assuming a big factor was the in state tuition cost you could get there, but maybe not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Of course....anecdotal evidence doesn't cut it when trying to make a forward looking forecast. 61/60 here before the next batch moves in..... Yes. I guess sometimes enough anecdotel evidence can actually add up to mean something. I think that is how a lot of "theories" start before they are supported with hard data. Like in Boston, I'm sure Jerry has felt that if the wind is out of the straight east early on in a snowstorm, then its a bad sign and means its going to flip. That is anecdotel evidence accumulated over time, but then when we check the data, it usually rings true as the reason for that is because the sfc low is going to hug the coast. But a lot of the time our anecdotel evidence means nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 If we had upper air data from pre-1950, we could use it a lot more. But only having sfc data is tough to use...especially when the ENSO sfc data has larger margins for error in that time frame. We can sometimes use analogs from back then if we can gather a good idea of what the upper air was like based on the sfc, but usually that is very tough. I could probably figure this out with re-analysis but since you're good at this stuff I figured I'd ask you. Is there a correlation between the pattern in October and the general pattern for at least the first half of the winter (regardless of all indices)? I've seen people talk on here recently about their being some sort of connection but I'm not convinced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Yes. I guess sometimes enough anecdotel evidence can actually add up to mean something. I think that is how a lot of "theories" start before they are supported with hard data. Like in Boston, I'm sure Jerry has felt that if the wind is out of the straight east early on in a snowstorm, then its a bad sign and means its going to flip. That is anecdotel evidence accumulated over time, but then when we check the data, it usually rings true as the reason for that is because the sfc low is going to hug the coast. But a lot of the time our anecdotel evidence means nothing. Most of the time, yes lol. The trend chart though (down here) suggests otherwise.....it's a breakout and I think this winter over delivers again.....we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Haha, are you in the met program there? I never really considered it because I haven't heard many positive things about it, and also its not as enticing snow fall wise as some of the other schools I mentioned. Do you like it? I'm assuming a big factor was the in state tuition cost you could get there, but maybe not? Haha yes sir I am. It is not a very good program I will give you that and it seems to be getting worse. Malloy is making all sorts of cuts and now classes aren't running like the forecasting class I need next semester won't be run. I'm a junior and I'm going to be here at least two more years. I'm surprised you didn't consider UMass Lowell don't they have a program? I think Brad Field from NBC30 here in CT (where Ryan works) went there. Tuition was definitely a factor. Another factor was I couldn't get into any of the SUNY's and Penn State only accepted me to a branch campus lol. I toured Plymouth but I really just didn't want to go that far from home. In retrospect, I probably should have gone there since it's a better program...oh well, maybe grad. school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I could probably figure this out with re-analysis but since you're good at this stuff I figured I'd ask you. Is there a correlation between the pattern in October and the general pattern for at least the first half of the winter (regardless of all indices)? I've seen people talk on here recently about their being some sort of connection but I'm not convinced. There has been a weak correlation with October temperature I think. But its not strong enough to really go nuts over. The best combo appears to be cold October while having a +NAO which is not easy to do, but when it happens, it produces good winters here. A lot of this is subject to SSS as well...especially when you start combining variables such as the NAO and temps in the same month. The single best correlation we have is Autumn NAO/AO having an inverse correlation to winter NAO/AO. But those are index numbers and not necessarily any indication of our weather during October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Tomorrow looks nice though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Haha yes sir I am. It is not a very good program I will give you that and it seems to be getting worse. Malloy is making all sorts of cuts and now classes aren't running like the forecasting class I need next semester won't be run. I'm a junior and I'm going to be here at least two more years. I'm surprised you didn't consider UMass Lowell don't they have a program? I think Brad Field from NBC30 here in CT (where Ryan works) went there. Tuition was definitely a factor. Another factor was I couldn't get into any of the SUNY's and Penn State only accepted me to a branch campus lol. I toured Plymouth but I really just didn't want to go that far from home. In retrospect, I probably should have gone there since it's a better program...oh well, maybe grad. school. Yeah, I considered UMASS lowell... But the area isn't great and I'd rather go a little farther north. I also have to get accepted first...Lyndon is pretty much a definite.. and I think I could get into the SUNY schools and Plymouth but not 100% sure. Good luck in your last two years dude! Time for me to sleep. In 8 hours I'll be on the way to SATs. (it broke up the typing weird on my ipod, no idea why it did that.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 There has been a weak correlation with October temperature I think. But its not strong enough to really go nuts over. The best combo appears to be cold October while having a +NAO which is not easy to do, but when it happens, it produces good winters here. A lot of this is subject to SSS as well...especially when you start combining variables such as the NAO and temps in the same month. The single best correlation we have is Autumn NAO/AO having an inverse correlation to winter NAO/AO. But those are index numbers and not necessarily any indication of our weather during October. Okay thanks Will. The NAO/AO values obviously don't go back that far anyway so we don't have a very big sample size. We had a pretty strong -NAO last October which translated to a -NAO during the first part of the winter. Now it's around neutral so maybe that won't bode well for the start of winter? It'd be nice to have a back-loaded winter but I know that isn't typical of a Nina around here anyway. Another thing to consider is that temperature patterns aren't the be-all end-all. I think people sometimes get a little too wrapped up in whether or not a pattern will be "cold." When, in reality, you don't need the perfect cold pattern especially for inland areas. P.S.- What's SSS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Yeah, I considered UMASS lowell... But the area isn't great and I'd rather go a little farther north. I also have to get accepted first...Lyndon is pretty much a definite.. and I think I could get into the SUNY schools and Plymouth but not 100% sure. Good luck in your last two years dude! Time for me to sleep. In 8 hours I'll be on the way to SATs. Oh good luck on those...god those are brutal lol. Yeah Plymouth is cool I didn't tour Lyndon I figured that was just too out there I guess. I see you're really taking into account the winter climate. I'd definitely go with SUNY Oswego in that case lol. I know you called it "fake snow" but still...any school that requires rope tows to get around campus during the winter is the kind of place I want to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Okay thanks Will. The NAO/AO values obviously don't go back that far anyway so we don't have a very big sample size. We had a pretty strong -NAO last October which translated to a -NAO during the first part of the winter. Now it's around neutral so maybe that won't bode well for the start of winter? It'd be nice to have a back-loaded winter but I know that isn't typical of a Nina around here anyway. Another thing to consider is that temperature patterns aren't the be-all end-all. I think people sometimes get a little too wrapped up in whether or not a pattern will be "cold." When, in reality, you don't need the perfect cold pattern especially for inland areas. P.S.- What's SSS? Usually we want October to have a +NAO/AO because the correlation is an inverse correlation. But the last two years, we've had a big -NAO in October and winter panned out the same way anyway. So it hasn't worked recently. SSS means small sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Oh good luck on those...god those are brutal lol. Yeah Plymouth is cool I didn't tour Lyndon I figured that was just too out there I guess. I see you're really taking into account the winter climate. I'd definitely go with SUNY Oswego in that case lol. I know you called it "fake snow" but still...any school that requires rope tows to get around campus during the winter is the kind of place I want to be. The winter climate will be my "tiebreaker" category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Usually we want October to have a +NAO/AO because the correlation is an inverse correlation. But the last two years, we've had a big -NAO in October and winter panned out the same way anyway. So it hasn't worked recently. SSS means small sample size. Well last winter worked like a strong Nina from Feb. on. It was just the most anomalous January on record lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Well last winter worked like a strong Nina from Feb. on. It was just the most anomalous January on record lol. December was very negative too... more so than January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Wow! Surprisingly strong storm! 1.13" in 20 minutes! Very vivid lightning and a peak wind gust of 32. One of the top 3 thunderstorms in what has been a very active year for thunderstorms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Happy October!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I think this autumn is behaving rather typically for autumn. I expect generally mildish wx into Halloween. November will be telling. If I had to guess, I'd say variable December, cold January, variable February, killer March. Snow: BOS- 42 inches TOL- 51 inches GAY- 63 inches ORH- 79 inches Ginx- 44 inches NYC- 21 inches Rindge-93 inches Call this first guess. Take em up..Way up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I tried calling you about getting together for the game, but you didn't answer the text or call. I'm at Slattery's in Fitchburg. If you're up for a few brews and watching the game after the rain delay, give me a line. It is about 20 minutes for me, the back roads can be a little slow but it is a short drive. 119 really moves with the 50-55mph speed limit. I am really enjoying getting buzzed after a long week with the special ed kids, and using the high speed Internet. Finally able to load the ECM easily. Sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I don't like Fitchburg at all; it's a ghetto town with crappy bars and restaurants, and the traffic is terrible. Google Maps recommends going through FIT to get back from Dobbs Ferry using 290->90->84, but I prefer just taking Route 119 down towards I-91 to avoid the traffic and rotaries they have around here. Slattery's seems OK but the crowd is sort of disappointing for a teacher. I came here to watch the Yankees game but the rain delay has been so long I may have to head home soon. Couldn't you just as easily head into Keene for your bar? You're young enough--you might get lucky. Also, maybe the bar at the Fitzwilliam Inn? I'm pretty confident that BOS does fairly well this winter. They rarely get screwed in cold phase Ninas...a time or two in the mid 1970s. But pretty much all the rest from mid 50s through early 70s and the the 2007-2011 Ninas they've done well. I'm now at the point, while I will still track and have angst over qpf butt ultimately, I'm going to be a little stoic and accept that what is is what is. At leats I say that now during our above normal regime. Of course, I will enjoy today's highs in the mid-50's. Looks like New Bedford's about to get rocked. Also, does Chris (Happy Valley) or anyone else in NW Mass have a record of how much rain we got since Wednesday? A crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Had a nice tstm and one heck of a downpour last night. Sleep fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Looks like one more light shower over the next hour or 2 and then dry for the 5k today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Torch getting closer on the 0z ECM, really sticking to its guns: 0z GFS also shows a warm pattern in the longer range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Looks like one more light shower over the next hour or 2 and then dry for the 5k today Where's your 5k? Good luck on that. Two weeks until the marathon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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