nzucker Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 50dbz breaking out just east of I-91....I am about to get pounded here in Fitchburg, Mass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 50dbz breaking out just east of I-91....I am about to get pounded here in Fitchburg, Mass... Found a bar in Fitchburg? What is that, about 20 minutes from Rindge? Driving time can vary around there because of back roads. Its only about 10-12 miles by the way the crow flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Found a bar in Fitchburg? What is that, about 20 minutes from Rindge? Driving time can vary around there because of back roads. Its only about 10-12 miles by the way the crow flies. I tried calling you about getting together for the game, but you didn't answer the text or call. I'm at Slattery's in Fitchburg. If you're up for a few brews and watching the game after the rain delay, give me a line. It is about 20 minutes for me, the back roads can be a little slow but it is a short drive. 119 really moves with the 50-55mph speed limit. I am really enjoying getting buzzed after a long week with the special ed kids, and using the high speed Internet. Finally able to load the ECM easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I'm expecting Oct to come in above average even though the first few days will be cold. Though we cannot count out a big flip int he pattern the final 10-14 days, but from what I see right now, it looks like a general above avg regime wants to be in place after the cold snap. I think this autumn is behaving rather typically for autumn. I expect generally mildish wx into Halloween. November will be telling. If I had to guess, I'd say variable December, cold January, variable February, killer March. Snow: BOS- 42 inches TOL- 51 inches GAY- 63 inches ORH- 79 inches Ginx- 44 inches NYC- 21 inches Rindge-93 inches Call this first guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I think this autumn is behaving rather typically for autumn. I expect generally mildish wx into Halloween. November will be telling. If I had to guess, I'd say variable December, cold January, variable February, killer March. Snow: BOS- 42 inches TOL- 51 inches GAY- 63 inches ORH- 79 inches Ginx- 44 inches NYC- 21 inches Rindge-93 inches Call this first guess. I was thinking of a very preliminary over/under at 50" for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I think this autumn is behaving rather typically for autumn. I expect generally mildish wx into Halloween. November will be telling. If I had to guess, I'd say variable December, cold January, variable February, killer March. Snow: BOS- 42 inches TOL- 51 inches GAY- 63 inches ORH- 79 inches Ginx- 44 inches NYC- 21 inches Rindge-93 inches Call this first guess. I'd definitely take 93"....a moderate Niña with a -QBO should produce unless the PAC becomes totally hostile. The +EPO tendency this fall is a bit disturbing but I'd like to think the pattern will shift come winter. I'll be in Dobbs Ferry for much of the winter however; what are your thoughts for areas north of NYC with a little elevation? Average winter with an early -NAO balancing a poor second half? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Well as obese as you are..I just worry when you get older you're going to have trouble walking..esp when you''re unable to lift anymore..all that just turns flabby I tried calling you about getting together for the game, but you didn't answer the text or call. I'm at Slattery's in Fitchburg. If you're up for a few brews and watching the game after the rain delay, give me a line. It is about 20 minutes for me, the back roads can be a little slow but it is a short drive. 119 really moves with the 50-55mph speed limit. I am really enjoying getting buzzed after a long week with the special ed kids, and using the high speed Internet. Finally able to load the ECM easily. Nice day today! 64F and clear right now...but that line of showers is on the way. SATs tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I was thinking of a very preliminary over/under at 50" for BOS. Under -240 Over +200 Lots of sleet and rain contamination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I was thinking of a very preliminary over/under at 50" for BOS. That's very close to the mean for BOS in the -qbo/Nina analogs. 2007-2008: 52.0" 2000-2001: 45.9" 1970-1971: 57.3" 1967-1968: 44.8" 1956-1957: 52.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Nice day today! 64F and clear right now...but that line of showers is on the way. SATs tomorrow Still at 64/59 over in Rindge... I remember the night before the SATs I got a bit loaded but still did great the next day. Not that I'm recommending this approach but if you're a good student you'll do fine. I'm on the other side teaching now so I guess I see it a little differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I tried calling you about getting together for the game, but you didn't answer the text or call. I'm at Slattery's in Fitchburg. If you're up for a few brews and watching the game after the rain delay, give me a line. It is about 20 minutes for me, the back roads can be a little slow but it is a short drive. 119 really moves with the 50-55mph speed limit. I am really enjoying getting buzzed after a long week with the special ed kids, and using the high speed Internet. Finally able to load the ECM easily. I saw your text but I accidentally deleted it last week when clearing out my inbox. You'll have to PM me your number again. I'd def meet up in FIT some time but can't make it up tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I'd definitely take 93"....a moderate Niña with a -QBO should produce unless the PAC becomes totally hostile. The +EPO tendency this fall is a bit disturbing but I'd like to think the pattern will shift come winter. I'll be in Dobbs Ferry for much of the winter however; what are your thoughts for areas north of NYC with a little elevation? Average winter with an early -NAO balancing a poor second half? I'd put the Vegas line for Rindge this year at 87.5" (vs climo of ~81"). I think they are favored for above avg in these type of winter setups. There's certainly some huge winters in there too with over 100". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Still at 64/59 over in Rindge... I remember the night before the SATs I got a bit loaded but still did great the next day. Not that I'm recommending this approach but if you're a good student you'll do fine. I'm on the other side teaching now so I guess I see it a little differently. Yeah, I worked tonight and now just chilling out at home. I'm not too worried. I'm not the best tester, but I'll do okay. I'd like to get somewhere in the 1850-2000 range, nothing crazy. I've eliminated my schools down to either Lyndon, Plymouth, or SUNY Oswego for meteorology. I toured Penn State but the school itself was bigger then most towns, so I thought it was a little too big for me, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I'd definitely take 93"....a moderate Niña with a -QBO should produce unless the PAC becomes totally hostile. The +EPO tendency this fall is a bit disturbing but I'd like to think the pattern will shift come winter. I'll be in Dobbs Ferry for much of the winter however; what are your thoughts for areas north of NYC with a little elevation? Average winter with an early -NAO balancing a poor second half? I think 40S could get screwed. NYC is on the line so it could be very up and downish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I think 40S could get screwed. NYC is on the line so it could be very up and downish. 40S rarely cashes in during Ninas...there's a couple of exceptions (mostly '95-'96), but it usually either warm and wet there or cold and dry during Ninas. New England has historically been high precip during the cold phase pacific Ninas. The warm phase Ninas were dry here...and horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 north carolina receiving snow before gods country it cant be http://www.twitvid.com/BKUV0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Temp gradient is often notable big during cold phase Ninas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Slattery's is a decent place, but Fitchburg is sort of ghetto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Yeah, I worked tonight and now just chilling out at home. I'm not too worried. I'm not the best tester, but I'll do okay. I'd like to get somewhere in the 1850-2000 range, nothing crazy. I've eliminated my schools down to either Lyndon, Plymouth, or SUNY Oswego for meteorology. I toured Penn State but the school itself was bigger then most towns, so I thought it was a little too big for me, lol. My mom went to SUNY Oswego for her French major, loved it, College on the Hill. They average about 130" of snowfall so you'd love it there. I know Sam Lillo goes to Plymouth and loves it; several of my co-workers also attended Plymouth...it's a big party school but also very solid academics, you'd be very pleased I think. I wasn't really a fan of the bigger colleges, went to Middlebury with only 2400 students and found it was the environment that benefited me the most. I think 40S could get screwed. NYC is on the line so it could be very up and downish. I think NYC will do OK this winter; they're fine without the STJ unlike DC or BWI. My house had 70" last year in a moderate/strong Niña so I think it will be a decent winter as long as the NAO behaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I think NYC will do OK this winter; they're fine without the STJ unlike DC or BWI. My house had 70" last year in a moderate/strong Niña so I think it will be a decent winter as long as the NAO behaves. I'm on the fence with NYC...but they can get the shaft easily in -qbo/Ninas like '07-08, '70-'71, '56-'57 while New England does well. Hard to say with any confidence yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Temp gradient is often notable big during cold phase Ninas I think not using pre 1950's data is on the dangerous side.......didn't we just see an example of that last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Slattery's is a decent place, but Fitchburg is sort of ghetto I don't like Fitchburg at all; it's a ghetto town with crappy bars and restaurants, and the traffic is terrible. Google Maps recommends going through FIT to get back from Dobbs Ferry using 290->90->84, but I prefer just taking Route 119 down towards I-91 to avoid the traffic and rotaries they have around here. Slattery's seems OK but the crowd is sort of disappointing for a teacher. I came here to watch the Yankees game but the rain delay has been so long I may have to head home soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 That's very close to the mean for BOS in the -qbo/Nina analogs. 2007-2008: 52.0" 2000-2001: 45.9" 1970-1971: 57.3" 1967-1968: 44.8" 1956-1957: 52.0" I actually looked at those, but didn't necessarily use those numbers to sway what I thought. I think as a very preliminary guess...over/under of 50" seems reasonable for now. I'm hoping the delayed downwelling -QBO gives us a pig ridge in the NPAC and allows my numbers to be too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I think not using pre 1950's data is on the dangerous side.......didn't we just see an example of that last winter? '55-'56 was a popular analog last winter that worked out well. Big snow, cold winter, in a strong Nina with +QBO. The order of the big snow was different, but the general idea of a -NAO in a strong Nina worked out well which helped produce the big snow. I generally stay away from pre-1950 analogs because of cruddy data and also the fact that we were just coming out of the little ice age if you are going back far enough to the early 1900s or late 1800s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 My mom went to SUNY Oswego for her French major, loved it, College on the Hill. They average about 130" of snowfall so you'd love it there. I know Sam Lillo goes to Plymouth and loves it; several of my co-workers also attended Plymouth...it's a big party school but also very solid academics, you'd be very pleased I think. I wasn't really a fan of the bigger colleges, went to Middlebury with only 2400 students and found it was the environment that benefited me the most. Yeah I sent a PM to Sam about Plymouth...tough to chose. But either way...I increase my current 65" snowfall...either to ~78" (Plymouth), 84" (Lyndon), or 130-140" (Oswego). But Oswego has fake snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I actually looked at those, but didn't necessarily use those numbers to sway what I thought. I think as a very preliminary guess...over/under of 50" seems reasonable for now. I'm hoping the delayed downwelling -QBO gives us a pig ridge in the NPAC and allows my numbers to be too low. I'm pretty confident that BOS does fairly well this winter. They rarely get screwed in cold phase Ninas...a time or two in the mid 1970s. But pretty much all the rest from mid 50s through early 70s and the the 2007-2011 Ninas they've done well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Yeah I PMed Sam about Plymouth...tough to chose. But either way...I increase my current 65" snowfall...either to ~78" (Plymouth), 84" (Lyndon), or 130-140" (Oswego). But Oswego has fake snow. Middlebury was a snow hole compared to VT standards but still averages around 65" per year. That was a big upgrade compared to my house in Dobbs Ferry NY which averages around 38" in Southern Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I don't necessarily know how significant this downwelling -QBO would be, but perhaps the "delayed" nature of the downwelling may allow for a February or early March to feature a period of winter. Maybe if we can start trending out of Nina and combined with this full layer -QBO...we can get a wintry period in Feb or March. This probaly should be in the winter thread so I apologize. I just got going blabbing about winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I don't necessarily know how significant this downwelling -QBO would be, but perhaps the "delayed" nature of the downwelling may allow for a February or early March to feature a period of winter. Maybe if we can start trending out of Nina and combined with this full layer -QBO...we can get a wintry period in Feb or March. This probaly should be in the winter thread so I apologize. I just got going blabbing about winter. Eh nothing really to talk about right now anyway . Rain line is moving slowly. We'll pick up the current wx again in time. Maybe I'll move these posts to the winter thread in the morning...but since there is already a chain of thought, I'll let it go here for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Yeah, I worked tonight and now just chilling out at home. I'm not too worried. I'm not the best tester, but I'll do okay. I'd like to get somewhere in the 1850-2000 range, nothing crazy. I've eliminated my schools down to either Lyndon, Plymouth, or SUNY Oswego for meteorology. I toured Penn State but the school itself was bigger then most towns, so I thought it was a little too big for me, lol. Come to WestConn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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