Baroclinic Zone Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Going to start this thread a bit early since models are in pretty good agreement for a cool shot to start the month. Euro and GFS are not too dissimilar for the start of October. It will feel nice after this crap we've had to deal with for the past week. Maybe October can produce first flakes for some this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Looks like we'll get a couple of cool shots in the beginning of October. It's doesn't look terribly chilly, but should feel good nonetheless. Afterwards, we get a little milder towards the end of the first week it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Hopefully we put an end to this warm pattern of late and move into more fall like weather, October is a key month for weather patterns that could evolve into specific storm tracks for winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Models are hinting at potential coastal development Sunday-Monday timeframe. Just in time to herald in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Models are hinting at potential coastal development Sunday-Monday timeframe. Just in time to herald in October. 6-8 in the hills? 1-3 in the swamps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 26, 2011 Author Share Posted September 26, 2011 Models are hinting at potential coastal development Sunday-Monday timeframe. Just in time to herald in October. Beautiful setup there on the 12z GFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 6-8 in the hills? 1-3 in the swamps If this were winter....we would hate Pete...lol. The GFS verbatim crushes western mass with rain, but I'm sure the solution will change several more times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 If this were winter....we would hate Pete...lol. The GFS verbatim crushes western mass with rain, but I'm sure the solution will change several more times. Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Miller B? Yeah nice cyclogenesis south of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 "Like" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 "Like" Yeah nice to see modeled. The euro isn't really gung-ho yet, but does hint at it. Maybe today's run will "like" the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Models are also building the cold in western Canada too, at the beginning of the month. It may mean more of a mild spell for us, but nothing like we endured with the swamp azz. Perhaps that cold moves in mid month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 you know ... it is not impossible that Ophil. or the remnants could get caught up in the deep layer circulation field of that coastal next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 If this were winter....we would hate Pete...lol. The GFS verbatim crushes western mass with rain, but I'm sure the solution will change several more times. hey scott how bout the 4000'ft peak of stratton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 you know ... it is not impossible that Ophil. or the remnants could get caught up in the deep layer circulation field of that coastal next weekend. Though unlikely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Models are also building the cold in western Canada too, at the beginning of the month. It may mean more of a mild spell for us, but nothing like we endured with the swamp azz. Perhaps that cold moves in mid month or so. I'm expecting Oct to come in above average even though the first few days will be cold. Though we cannot count out a big flip int he pattern the final 10-14 days, but from what I see right now, it looks like a general above avg regime wants to be in place after the cold snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 I'm expecting Oct to come in above average even though the first few days will be cold. Though we cannot count out a big flip int he pattern the final 10-14 days, but from what I see right now, it looks like a general above avg regime wants to be in place after the cold snap. Above avg, sure.....but it shouldn't be like the crap of the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Though unlikely? No, that happens all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 I'm expecting Oct to come in above average even though the first few days will be cold. Though we cannot count out a big flip int he pattern the final 10-14 days, but from what I see right now, it looks like a general above avg regime wants to be in place after the cold snap. Yeah I think I agree with you there. I don't really see a below avg regime right now, other than maybe transient cold shots. Seems like we are behaving like many Nina/-PDO falls should behave. Perhaps maybe something changes later in the month, but my take is that it's probably a good thing to get nw and nrn Canada cold and develop the snowpack for any possible assault down the road in November and December. I know you feel that way too. I don't have a problem with a warmer than normal October. I also don't think it will be way above normal either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Yeah I think I agree with you there. I don't really see a below avg regime right now, other than maybe transient cold shots. Seems like we are behaving like many Nina/-PDO falls should behave. Perhaps maybe something changes later in the month, but my take is that it's probably a good thing to get nw and nrn Canada cold and develop the snowpack for any possible assault down the road in November and December. I know you feel that way too. I don't have a problem with a warmer than normal October. I also don't think it will be way above normal either. Cool. I was def. talking out of my azz because I have looked at nothing, but I'm just betting against 70* DPs for the better portion of the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Cool. I was def. talking out of mjy azz because I have looked at nothing, but I'm just betting against 70* DPs for the better portion of the next few weeks. It's still possible to get a bout of semi swampazz with dews in the low-mid 60s. Waters are still warm, and the gulf is still bath water. But yeah, I think we can put away the true swamp azz for the season, after this weekend. We'll still have some warm days though. Warmth in October is truly comfortable. 68-74ish or so is pleasant and the nights cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Euro is still holding off on any storm, but it's defintely going to cool off. Seems like the tallest peaks of the Greens and White may be coated with some white to go along with the colors of the lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 I'm expecting Oct to come in above average even though the first few days will be cold. Though we cannot count out a big flip int he pattern the final 10-14 days, but from what I see right now, it looks like a general above avg regime wants to be in place after the cold snap. Gee, that's too bad... a notable local Met has studied Oct relationship to DJF and shown a positive correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 October seems like a toss up to me. I'm just not sure how we have enough sample sizes of reliable data to figure out a notable correlation. Not only do you have the seasonal shuffle, but you also probably need to weigh in how ENSO is trending...not just what state its in at the current moment. Factor all that in, and it seems tough to have a great idea of what's going to happen from Dec-Feb with October as a whole. Maybe I'm wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 If this were winter....we would hate Pete...lol. The GFS verbatim crushes western mass with rain, but I'm sure the solution will change several more times. Lots of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Cool. I was def. talking out of my azz because I have looked at nothing, but I'm just betting against 70* DPs for the better portion of the next few weeks. Well saying above normal in October is a lot different than saying we'll have 70F dewpoints. By the time we get into mid-October, these numbers would be breaking records for positive departures. Climo alone would argue severely against soupy subtropical airmasses in mid October even if we are above average for that time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Oct looks like another brutal much above normal in all of SNE except for one tiny little glen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Gee, that's too bad... a notable local Met has studied Oct relationship to DJF and shown a positive correlation. Last Oct was plus 1.5 in BOS, correlation phail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Last Oct was plus 1.5 in BOS, correlation phail. a positive correlation does not = an absolute correlation I believe it was 2/3rds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 The gfs has some nice rain with that low on october 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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