phil882 Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 Always still a chance we get a big storm to drop a half inch with the high PWAT values... but it doesn't look like KMIA is in that threat for a good chunk of the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 God I blow at forecasting precip. Thank goodness I'm doing pretty well in the other 3 categories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 Looks like storms are starting to move in from the ocean. Should see some measurable rainfall tonight. How much is the big question though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 WOW... 71F as of 9 p.m. with 1.26" of precipitation during the last hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 WOW is all I can say. It's almost too much rain, and that low...eww! I've been on the edge of my seat like all day, now it downpours! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 I thought the guidance forecast of a low of 75 was going to screw me. Now I'm ahead of those that guessed 79. Of course the wind is going to bust several knots too low, but you can't win 'em all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 One of my friends from Plymouth is winning this one He was in 8th yesterday, and in order to win, he figured he needed a sizable precip margin. He went with 0.66" and has vaulted into first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 8, 2011 Author Share Posted October 8, 2011 LOL that's all I can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Oops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Left from Norman in 500th place arrive in Dallas and now I'm in 192nd place!? I'm just gonna roll with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 It looks like a cool, blustery day next Tuesday to kick things off in Riverton, WY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 71F? It hasn't been that cold here since early May!!!! What a joke. I thought I was being aggressive with 0.23". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Ii was running a custom WRF EMS model for Miami, and the 18z last night had 0.75-1.00". I thought it was nuts. I didn't run a 0z obviously since it wouldn't have helped me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Day 8 = Disaster.... I was at 280 for awhile 2 days ago, (If I wouldn't have foretasted 0.47 precip for Day 1, I would have been in Top 20), lol that doesn't matter coulda shoulda woulda, after Day 7, (Missed Forecast) and Day 8 ,(Everybody mostly failed), I go from 280 to 1100ish.. uh... Miami Cancel, Riverton here we come.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 to add insult to injury they just received another 0.74" of rain last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Another downpour moving in. Someone who was in 500th place could have won by putting 2.5" of rain today. Nobody saw this coming though. The models had the heaviest rain coming in after 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Low of 70F, wind 26kt, precip 3.2" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 So I'm a totally spectacular 640th in the national standings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Going to be a straightforward precip forecast for Riverton, WY this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 GFS says 0.03" the next 16 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 LOL, that was a disaster. Nothing like forecasting 0.00" of rain, then a deluge comes in on the last day of forecasting... I almost forgot we switch to Riverton, Wyoming this week. That would have been a disaster if I would have made a KMIA forecast for KRIW!!! Wind speed will be interesting. The wind speed is in the 20s (knots) on the GFS, but in the 10s on the NAM... Hopefully, Riverton goes better than Miami for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 LOL, that was a disaster. Nothing like forecasting 0.00" of rain, then a deluge comes in on the last day of forecasting... I almost forgot we switch to Riverton, Wyoming this week. That would have been a disaster if I would have made a KMIA forecast for KRIW!!! Wind speed will be interesting. The wind speed is in the 20s (knots) on the GFS, but in the 10s on the NAM... Hopefully, Riverton goes better than Miami for me. Looks like the NWS Is siding with the NAM saying only gusts to 21mph but wind speeds staying in the 10s (kts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Welcome to KRIW... in Riverton, Wyoming! Take a look around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Any advice on forecasting for Wyoming? How well do the models handle downsloping winds with respect to temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Anyone notice that the PSU E-Wall has been putting a regional model floater on the wxchallenge sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Checking the NAM and GFS MOS.... It seems like the NAM handled today's winds slightly better than the GFS, although if the GFS forecast for today (Monday) didn't spike at 21z it would have even been better than the NAM. To further complicate matters, the NAM for 2 or 3 runs before today's 12z run had higher wind values that almost matched the GFS's, making the 12z NAM MOS seem like an outlier. So in the end I took a crapshoot and went..... 61 / 42 / 15 kts / 0.00" I have almost no experience in high-elevation forecasting, so let's see what happens, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Anyone notice that the PSU E-Wall has been putting a regional model floater on the wxchallenge sites I have noticed that. I see the little black dot too for KRIW. The E-wall has some decent stuff, but it's still not my favorite. The only big downside is the size of the graphics. They are so darn small! Anyways, went 61/42/20/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Anyone notice that the PSU E-Wall has been putting a regional model floater on the wxchallenge sites Yep, 15 panel too. I like the RH fields. Day 1 Stats: Avg. High: 61.92 Avg. Low: 39.36 Avg. Wind: 17.71 Avg. Precip: .01 I put 62/40/19/0.00 I *think* the winds are going to be higher in the valley below but the angle of the river valley and the fact that the airport is ~450 ft above the valley will slow the winds a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I have noticed that. I see the little black dot too for KRIW. The E-wall has some decent stuff, but it's still not my favorite. The only big downside is the size of the graphics. They are so darn small! Anyways, went 61/42/20/0.00 I love their maps for the big picture. I use them all the time in synoptic discussions. For anything immediately smaller than synoptic scale, it gets a little more difficult to use effectively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 My forecast is 63/41/22/0.02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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