Quincy Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 85/75/18/0.00 Contemplated throwing in a few hundreths of an inch of precip...wrf/sref showing 50-70% chance of measurable precip, but the gfs is less than half of that. Since I always seem to bust of precip, just keeping it zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 85/75/18/0.00 Contemplated throwing in a few hundreths of an inch of precip...wrf/sref showing 50-70% chance of measurable precip, but the gfs is less than half of that. Since I always seem to bust of precip, just keeping it zero. Yeah, both the high res WRF models (NMM, ARW) had that area getting hit pretty good with precip. I went 86/74/16/0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 85/75/18/0.00 Contemplated throwing in a few hundreths of an inch of precip...wrf/sref showing 50-70% chance of measurable precip, but the gfs is less than half of that. Since I always seem to bust of precip, just keeping it zero. I am scared...I went with 0.05" of precip and my Met I Lab Professor went with 0.00"...if I beat her for the two weeks I get some extra credit and I'm currently winning by 2.5 pts and hoping not to choke my lead away on precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 85/75/18/0.00 Contemplated throwing in a few hundreths of an inch of precip...wrf/sref showing 50-70% chance of measurable precip, but the gfs is less than half of that. Since I always seem to bust of precip, just keeping it zero. I kept it at zero tomorrow but I feel like Friday we'll need to put in some QPF. What do you guys think for wind tomorrow? I said 16...Looks like similar to today but Friday could be a 20kt+ day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 I knocked Wednesday out of the park, 0.0 . LOL, I will fall from 280 to +800 something Thursday, WTF moment today..... thats what happens when you forget to put in a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 I kept it at zero tomorrow but I feel like Friday we'll need to put in some QPF. What do you guys think for wind tomorrow? I said 16...Looks like similar to today but Friday could be a 20kt+ day. I said 17...hoping today gets bumped up a bit more as it tends to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 I went 86/75/15/.02" I wouldn't be surprised if the winds verify a little higher than that. My Synoptic Professor went 21 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 NWS has a "Hydrologic Outlook" out HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 442 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011 ...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVESLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDAON SATURDAY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOWPRESSURE WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND MOVENORTHWARD ON SUNDAY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOMETROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY NIGHTINTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS EVENT WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHERAMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW LYING AND STREET FLOODING. AS THIS WEATHER EVENT GETSCLOSER IN TIME...THE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE FINE TUNED IN LATER STATEMENTS.$ BAXTER http://forecast.weat...rologic+Outlook Could be some interesting forecasting for Friday, although right now the GFS only has 0.87" for KMIA from this event, so the product might be a bit bullish, and even that rain mostly falls on the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Winds already at 16 kts. Temp already at 87. I'm down about 50 places for today attm but I think I can move up into the 200's if some rain comes in, which actually looks a bit promising right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Looks like the high will be 87 and the winds, for now, have topped out at 16 kts (although they usually go a notch or two higher in the daily climate summary). Main problem now is rain incoming. Hopefully everyone else busts as hard as I do on rainfall, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 It's going to be a close call with that rain. Individual cells appear to have a pretty good southward component to their movement, so precip may just miss the airport. We'll see... Saturday will almost surely rain, and probably quite a bit, but unfortunately that's not when we forecast for. Tomorrow is the real dry-to-wet transition zone, making it especially tough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 5PM Daily Climate Summary: High: 87 Low: 76 Winds: 19 kts Precip: 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 85/77/20/0.39 hopefully the temps don't screw me up again and the precip is really hard...WRF showing a strong signal for heavy rains...SREF slightly less and the GFS/EC camp are much closer to 1/4 inch. PW values around 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 87/76/21/0.35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 85/79/21/0.40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 86/78/20/0.35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I should learn not to take naps right before 0z. Welp, let's hope the guidance forecast is close for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 86/77/19/0.35" I believe KMIA just barely got missed by the shower about an hour ago...dang it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Storm now blowing up like 5 miles north of the airport...come on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 You keep those storms away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 You keep those storms away! I did well enough on everything else today that I'll only lose about 60 spots if there's no precip but I'd really like to gain some ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 87/77/22/0.04 I went 77 because the winds last night actually dropped for an hour which let it come down from 77. Tonight I don't think that will happen. I meant to put 21 kts but I think my finger slipped and I was in a hurry before the dining hall closed. I noticed something interesting on the EURO which is that the mean shower direction will be from the NE but there is easterly flow on the surface. I saw this last Tuesday I think it was, and I noticed that when this happens the showers tend to die out once on land. I put some precip in there because it is certianly possible that one of the more robust ones could make it over. Whatever it ends up happening.. KMIA is DONE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 87/77/22/0.04 I went 77 because the winds last night actually dropped for an hour which let it come down from 77. Tonight I don't think that will happen. I meant to put 21 kts but I think my finger slipped and I was in a hurry before the dining hall closed. I noticed something interesting on the EURO which is that the mean shower direction will be from the NE but there is easterly flow on the surface. I saw this last Tuesday I think it was, and I noticed that when this happens the showers tend to die out once on land. I put some precip in there because it is certianly possible that one of the more robust ones could make it over. Whatever it ends up happening.. KMIA is DONE! Good observations. The WRF simulated radar shows the showers dying along the shoreline, although the rain shield eventually makes it inland later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 87/77/21/.13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 So then what did you actually put? I had the low in the 40s for some ridiculous reason. I was on my way to a test when I hurriedly entered the forecast and must have put a 4 instead of a 7. Oh well. The forecast dropped me from the 800s to the 1200s, but I have recovered to 1149th as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 looks like a thundershower cluster is heading right for Miami in the next 30 minutes, they may not get a lot of rain out of it, but it should be enough to help alleviate any concerns of a rain-free day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 looks like a thundershower cluster is heading right for Miami in the next 30 minutes, they may not get a lot of rain out of it, but it should be enough to help alleviate any concerns of a rain-free day... P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Wtf, that thing went all around the airport. Ah smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 lol fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 These showers are barely dropping any measurable precip. One just went over me and my rain gauge still says 0. It was enough to make the pavement wet and that's it. Hopefully they will become stronger/more numerous later, since I have 0.23" today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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