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WxChallenge 2011-2012 Season


phil882

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Went ahead and pushed out tomorrow's forecast (though I may revise it before the deadline).

I decided to finally go cooler with the high as it looks like I am going to be burned on my high temperature forecast for the third day in a row today. I don't forsee rain tomorrow at this point, but I threw a few hundredths of precip in there just in case.

89F / 77F / 9 knots / 0.03"

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Testing out a new theory with the precip..

Day 4: 88/77/9/0.04

I've tried something too

If Day Before Gets trace/no precip

Then Next Day will get measurable

and vice versa... I guess it's just a matter of how much...

At least based recent September 2011 climatology..

What was your theory...

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The 13z HRRR has some very weak surface convergence just north of Miami around 20-21z. There are showers around again, but I can't tell if they're a result of that convergence or not. I only went 0.01" so I could have 0.4 less error points than the people who went 0.00" if it does actually rain.

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